In April 2007 when Turkey initiated a trilateral meeting with the participation of Afghanistan and Pakistan to find a common ground for a possible peace in the region, no one has really expected a spectacular breakthrough. But Ankara’s modest initiative now has turned into an international forum where the future of Afghanistan is being debated with the participation of global community.
Trilateral summit process was part of Ankara’s efforts to create a new path to transforming the civilian and military efforts into lasting gains through enhancing dialogue and cooperation between Afghanistan and its neighbours. Turkey hosted five meetings so far and the fifth of the Turkey-Afghanistan-Pakistan trilateral summits took place in December 2010 in Istanbul. According to a joint statement issued after this latest Summit, the presidents said the trilateral summit process has been providing an increasingly efficient and robust platform for taking forward multi-dimensional dialogue, cooperation and partnership among the three countries. It seems that each summit is going more beyond from being ‘good-offices diplomacy’ of Turkey. For example, the Istanbul summit discussed holding joint military exercises and also the possibility of organizing training courses for the military of the three countries, to improve their skills and capabilities.
Recognising Turkey’s initiative, a meeting is scheduled in Ankara in May, where delegates from various neighboring countries, including Pakistan and India, will prepare an agenda for the International Conference of Foreign Ministers on Afghanistan in December 2011. The venue is Bonn and more than 1,000 delegates from 90 countries, including Pakistan and India, have been invited. Afghan President Hamid Karzai, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the UN Secretary General will be amongst the high profile participants. The fact that Ankara is hosting the preparatory meeting of Bonn conference is a signal of reliance from international community on trilateral summit process.
The forthcoming Ankara session has acquired a new significance because of Pakistan’s position. Historically, Islamabad is strongly opposed to India’s participation in areas which it sees as crucial. And Pakistani leaders protest if India is also invited. In the context of Ankara meeting on Bonn, Pakistan was true to its form. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry had told Turkey that Islamabad would not attend the conference if India was invited to preparatory exercise. However, in early April 2011, Pakistan surprised its interlocutors and withdrew its opposition to New Delhi’s participation in the discussions on the security and reconstruction of Afghanistan. Why Pakistan is not opposing its traditional rival’s presence at Ankara deliberations when it is clear that a place at Ankara high table will mean an automatic place for India at the Bonn conference? The real question is why and why now? There are no ready answers even if the issue viewed as a part of post-Mohali cricket diplomacy. Also to the question whether it is a genuine change or a tactical behavior in Islamabad’s approach to India?
Frankly, these questions cannot be brushed aside because, in the past, for example, with a clear objection of Pakistan, Turkey was forced not to invite India to the tri-lateral summit (of Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan) in Istanbul in January 2010. India lodged a protest with Turkey at not being invited to a conference of Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours. This did not only create a short-term hiatus in Turkey-India relations but also forced Turkey to play a more careful and nuanced role. On the one hand it doesn’t want to jeopardize its emerging relations with a shining India and on the other it is duly conscious of its deep-seated and historically strong relations with Pakistan. Result was Turkey had to work around its two friends to create a win-win situation and to find ways to convince Pakistan for the involvement of India in the Afghan reconstruction process.
At the outset, the roll backing of Pakistan’s objections appear to be in synch with the Mohali spirit. Timing of the announcement, just after the Cricket diplomacy, is needless to say meaningful and significant. How this approach will play out in future is difficult to crystal gaze but I believe that Pakistan’s decision goes beyond mere cricket diplomacy. Understanding these roots is crucial for the future of India-Pakistan ties. Also to know the long term influence on the current relations. In my understanding, there are two explanations for the emerging détente of sorts. One the changes and softening in the regional and bilateral relations between India and Pakistan. Two the role of Turkey both directly and indirectly.
In terms of changing regional and bilateral dynamics between India and Pakistan, there has been already several forums and civil society influence to bring them together. These efforts have contributed the current softening in terms of preparing the ground. For example, a highly credited think-thank, The Delhi Policy Group, has launched an Afghanistan-India-Pakistan Trialogue in 2009. A first of its kind, the trialogue brought together around 50 policymakers, analysts and Track II representatives from Afghanistan, India and Pakistan, to review changes, problems and progress in the relations between the three countries, and to see whether there were new opportunities for them to work together trilaterally, or in parallel bilateral, to pave the way for a renewal of stalled peace processes between them.
The latest Trialogue, the fifth in the series, was a conference in Goa held two days after the Christmas Day last year. The two-day conference was attended by 17 delegates; the participants included government officials, law makers, retired generals, former ambassadors and diplomats and policy analysts from each of the three countries. These conferences helped to foster a transparent relationship and to find common grounds for peace and prosperity in the region and between the three countries. These meetings have directly and indirectly contributed to softening Pakistan’s approach toward India’s participation in the upcoming conferences on Afghanistan.
Secondly, the role of Turkey should be acknowledged in terms of changing Pakistan’s position. Turkey’s impact can be summarized in two forms: direct and indirect.
In terms of direct influence, Turkey has played a ‘significant’ role in convincing Pakistan not to oppose India’s participation in the Ankara meeting. However, the nature of Turkey’s involvement is not clear so far because there is no official word. Nevertheless, according to one high-ranking official, close to government circles in Ankara, Turkey’s involvement has been important for the change.
If we accept this explanation the question arises: why Ankara could not convince Islamabad much earlier in 2007 when it started to the trilateral summit initiative to include India in the process. There are two explanations. Firstly the above-mentioned regional and bilateral developments between India and Pakistan since 2007 have convinced Turkey to invoke its direct influence on Pakistan. Secondly and most importantly a self-perceptional change in Pakistan’s regional understanding has helped Turkey to make the impact in an indirect way.
Over the past decade, Turkey since has been a source of inspiration not only in the Middle East but also in the Islamic world in general terms. Its inspiration can be termed as ‘demonstrative effect’ as coined by Professor Kemal Kirisci. For example, Turkey’s ‘zero problems with neighbours’ policy has been quite successful since 2002 when Turkey had security problems with most of its neighbors.
Its approach to regional issues has been to have more dialogue, more communication and more diplomacy. This has brought success and set an inspirational example to countries like Pakistan. Considering the close relations between Turkey and Pakistan, the way to solve regional issues is a frequent theme when both Turkish and Pakistani officials meet. Turkey’s own way of handling regional issues may have had some role in convincing Pakistan to follow the same way both by setting an example and influencing indirectly.
Finally, there seems to be a change in the attitude of Pakistan toward India and approaching regional issues. For example, a high ranking source quoted by the Hindu (April 5, 2011), argues that Pakistan “is gradually digesting the idea of consulting India on regional issues.” However, only time will decide how genuine that change is. But from a general perspective, in future, one should expect that Pakistan will play the both role of including India in some cases while opposing it in same others. This is natural process of difficulties when deep psychological and social change takes place. To satisfy some elements in Pakistani domestic politics, Islamabad is likely to take sometimes seemingly opposing position with regard to India; however, this should not confuse India. Pakistan apparently has entered into a period where a real mental change is about to debut.
––By Mehmet Ozkan
The author is PhD Candidate at Sevilla University, Spain
