Situation has changed since November last when the ballot was held to give the regime a sartorial make over. President Thein Sein has been pro-active as a reformer. Not only did he recognize Aung San Suu Kyi as the voice of the people which cannot be ignored but also surprised the world by freeing the media and trade unions and by allowing protests to take place in the streets of the old capital Yangon and new capital, Naypyidaw.
From all accounts, Suu Kyi’s decision to accept Thein Sein’s word at its face value and join Parliament has not gone down well with her followers. They have every reason to suspect the motives and planks of the rulers, who, they believe, are new only in name.
The President himself is a former general and Parliament is dominated by military. One third of the seats are reserved for the army. Of the remaining, eighty percent are with the Union Solidarity and Development Party, which had swept the last November election. USDP is made up of former military officers; they resigned from active military service to enter electoral fray.
In other words effective control of Parliament is in the hands of the military men- past and present. This is the reason why the government has a quasi-military look, and the Western powers are not comfortable in dealing with Naypyidaw even as they see an opportunity to wean Myanmar away from Chinese sphere of influence.
Value judgment is easy but in situation like the one prevailing in Myanmar it should be kept at bay. Available opportunities should be seized to reshape the course of events in whatever little way is possible. Giant strides though welcome are always not possible at the very outset. Suu Kyi, therefore, is taking measured steps. She sees the by-elections as an opportunity to demonstrate NLD’s mass base once again.
And the government of President Thein Sein is facilitating the forward movement in its own way. Allowing the Nobel laureate to stand for elections is one such move. To say that the decision is a calibrated ploy to hoodwink the western opinion is no more than missing the woods for the trees.
Also, there is no reason to presume that the elections will not be free and fair. The generals know that NLD will not be able to alter the character of parliament through the by-elections. This realization is incentive enough to allow normal electoral processes with no worry whatsoever.
In the prevailing milieu, dialogue is the only way to reach the goal posts. And such a dialogue will not bring miracles. It will however set the stage for change as the unfolding events in Myanmar show.
The West needs patience in dealing with Yangon. It cannot hope to push its liberal agenda and quick fix solutions. Since they have a vested interest in keeping Naypyidaw away from Beijing’s influence, the US and its EU allies should act as facilitators of change. The visit of British Foreign Secretary, William Hague to Myanmar in the first week of New Year and his praise of President Thein’s reforms as ‘irreversible’ shows that the West is conscious of its anchor role in Myanmar’s march to full-fledged democracy. That is something China has reasons to worry.
