Will the bonhomie lead to Suu Kyi becoming the President when the election for that highest office takes place in 2015? The answer is both no and yes. No because, as of now the constitution of Myanmar, which is a military authorised statute prohibits anyone with foreigners as relatives from entering the fray. Since Suu Kyi married a British citizen, she stands automatically disqualified from contesting. But the constitution can be amended if there is agreement. And such a possibility is no longer in the realm of conjectures.
Because Thein Sein has said in an interview that he would accept Aung San Suu Kyi as president if elected, but added he could not alone amend rules that bar her from power. “I alone cannot change the constitution. This depends on the wish of the people and also the wishes of the members of parliament,” he added, in what is seen as a positive response.
Even if she makes it to the Presidential palace, there can be no near term dilution in the influence of the military which in fact holds the key for any change in the country. It accounts for a quarter of the seats in Parliament which effectively gives the military a veto on any proposal. As Thein said, army cannot be excluded from politics in Myanmar and at the same it must be given its due pride of place since the junta had initiated sweeping changes that have culminated in Suu Kyi’s entry into Parliament in April and Myanmar emerging as the new darling of investors with green backs.
Obama administration has responded positively to these developments and now sees Yangon as a key element in its Asian offensive – diplomatic and strategic aimed at undermining Chinese influence. For President Thein Sein and his colleagues, this is an opening they needed to avert a looming economic crisis and turn around the Myanmar scrip.
Corporate America is keen enter Myanmar where hitherto China has been the main investor. For China, Myanmar has been a source of raw materials; it offered an alternative transport and pipeline route directly from the Indian Ocean to southern China.
During her US sojourn, Suu Kyi had over 100 engagements, including with President Obama at the White House on September 19. She toured America not as a critic of Myanmar regime but rather as an ambassador of her country. Speaking at the USIP, she praised the political and economic “reforms” of President Thein Sein, and called for a further easing of US sanctions.
Secretary of State Clinton, who met both Suu Kyi and Thein Sein, said the US would begin easing restrictions on Burmese imports. This was “in recognition of the continued progress toward reform and in response to requests from both the government and opposition,” she said.
Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has indicated military component to the emerging US-Myanmar relations. At the Center for Strategic and International Studies in September, he spoke of the need to “engage responsibly” with Myanmar’s military. He pointed out, “One of the institutions that have been largely left out of the engagement has been the military, and they play a critical role still inside the country.”
Military-to-military engagement is already underway, according to the Financial Times. “Discreet talks have been held between US and Myanmar defence officials about prospects for re-establishing training programs and exchanges with Myanmar’s military,” the British daily reported on September 20.
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) chief David Petraeus may visit Yangon this year. This was publicly hinted by Secretary of State Clinton herself. If the visit comes through as expected, it will open the possibility of even intelligence sharing besides revival of military cooperation which goes back to the sixties and seventies.
-yamaarar
