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Bonn conference pledges international support to Afghanistan

Pakistan’s absence at Bonn-II has underscored the hiccups in achieving a reconciliation i Afghanistan that leads to an end to the resistance by the Taliban and other forces opposing NATO presence.

Poreg View: Bonn –II as the international gathering to pledge support to Kabul has become known, has sent out the right signals. Its message is that formal end of US led NATO operations in 2014 will not result in leaving Kabul as an orphan once again and that the global community will continue to play its role in ensuring peace and stability in the war ravaged country.  

Pakistan boycotted the conference in response to the November 26 US air assault on two military posts on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border which killed some two dozen Pakistani soldiers. While Washington has described the incident as a “tragic accident,” the Pakistani military has termed it “a deliberate act of aggression.” In addition to its refusal to send a delegation to the conference, Islamabad cut off NATO supply routes through Pakistan and ordered the US to evacuate an airbase in Balochistan that has been used without much ado to launch CIA drone strikes.

Pakistan’s absence has underscored the hiccups in achieving a reconciliation that leads to an end to the resistance by the Taliban and other forces opposing NATO presence. Hitherto, the US-NATO strategy has focused on a series of surges in the south and east of the country—together with relentless drone attacks inside Pakistan’s tribal heart land with a view to bleeding the Taliban and forcing them to negotiate from a position of weakness. At the same time it has sought to pressurize the government of Pakistan to push the Taliban leadership mostly based near Quetta into negotiations. From the turn of events it is clear that this policy did not work. To a large extent, the Americans themselves have contributed to hardening of stand by Islamabad and by extension of the Taliban through a series of high handed actions and outbursts.

One thing is clear though. Afghan problem has to be solved politically. And Taliban must be made to account for its actions. Being the booted out rulers of Kabul, the Taliban cannot be expected to walk to the negotiating table and sign on the dotted line on command. They need a face saver and some effort to make them bend without appearing to be doing so. Since Taliban’s principal creator and prop is Pakistan, its military leadership should be made to fall in-line first with the diktats of time and by not linking action on the Durand Line with any trade offs on the western border.

In the name of not leaving the Afghans in the lurch, the United States and NATO are seeking to maintain a permanent military presence in the country long after the official 2014 deadline for withdrawal of foreign troops. It is said that some 20,000 US troops would remain in Afghanistan after the end of formal combat operations. This way, Washington wants to achieve its original strategic aims in Afghanistan- namely securing a military foothold in the energy-rich Central Asian region, while at the same time maintaining bases aimed at projecting US power against China.

President Karzai may accede to the request after some hard bargaining provided the US Special Forces end the night raids. Civilian deaths in the recent night raids have become a political issue, and Karzai cannot afford to gift a new issue to his opposition.  

Iran will be loath to see American bases so close to its border. It has made its opposition clear to the American plans at Bonn-II. Iran shares a long eastern border with Afghanistan. “Certain Western countries seek to extend their military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014 by maintaining their military bases there,” Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told the conference. “We deem such an approach to be contradictory to efforts to sustain stability and security in Afghanistan.”

Iran will remain a factor in the Afghan theatre. Its tension with the West may spill into Afghanistan since reports this past week said Tehran had shot down a US spy drone over its territory near the Afghan border.

Interestingly, Bonn-II has left it vague when it came to monetary aid to Kabul. President Karzai, who presided over the meet, said his government would require substantial economic and military support “for at least another decade.” It was suggested that the Afghan government would require at least $10 billion a year in aid, with as much as $6 billion going just to sustain Afghan security forces that are set to number some 350,000.

A communique issued at the close of Bonn-II said the Afghan regime has pledged to combat corruption and improve governance in return for the continued flow of Western military and economic aid. Pledges are worth the paper they are printed on only when there is a political will and when there is room to execute such political will.

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