POREG VIEW: The naming of Xi Jinping as the successor to President Hu Jintao at the end of Chinese Communist party session in Beijing was expected for a while. In that sense the announcement is a mere formality, though Xi is not the first choice for the top job which he will assume in 2012. Another provincial leader Li Keqiang was in the race but he could not win the backing of some old guard. He has been made to settle for the second best post which also falls vacant in 2012 when prime minister Wen Jiabo retires.
These appointments are keeping in with the Chinese practice of giving the new leaders’ time to learn the ropes. The grooming process is programmed just like in a computer and it seeks to fill ‘gaps’ in the CV. In the Chinese system, connections matter as much as ability and talent.
Xi’s father, Xi Zhongxun, a revolutionary leader in his own right, and a deputy prime minister, had helped Hu Jintao to rise through the ranks, and it is paying off time obviously. Any lingering doubts are set at rest by the fact that Hu had worked for a consensus on Xi Jinping and won over old timers like Jiang Zemin to his side. And sealed the chances of the contender.
Like Hu, Xi is going to begin his star trek as vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, which controls the army. It will be his first brush with the PLA, which is forcing the foreign office to adopt hard-line with neighbours these days.
As the Strait Times says, Xi Jinping is a mystery man of sorts. Nothing much is known about him, particularly about his political leanings and economic thinking. He is said to be averse to corruption and is reportedly straightforward. As a provincial head at Zhejiang, he went along with market reformers and allowed free-wheeling small business capitalism to flourish. He displayed organisational capabiities when Beijing staged the Olyumpics. Probably these qualities make him fit into the hierarchy as the CPC has decided to undertake a broad transformation of the economy in the next five years, shifting emphasis to domestic consumption and building high-technology industries into a driving force behind economic growth.
How much power Xi will be able wield when he slips into the big man’s shoes is debatable. But one thing is clear. His grip on the system will not be comparable to his predecessors. Mao and Den Xiaoping had commanded respect by virtue of their standing in the society. Xi will have to allow himself to be guided by collective decisions.
Put differently, no great changes can be expected in China’s domestic and foreign policies till such time, Xi Jinping carves out his own niche. There may be no dull moment behind the bamboo curtain though.
