POREG VIEW: Some six months back, China unilaterally offered to buy from Pakistan 263 more items not covered under the Free Trade Agreement. On a year-on-year basis, these exports could have fetched for the cash strapped Pakistan anywhere between one and one and a half billion dollars in revenue.
Karachi’s prestigious business daily, Business Recorder now reports that the Chinese have withdrawn their offer without ascribing any reasons. Mushtaq Ghumman of the daily, quoting the Commerce Ministry sources, said most of the items included in the ‘wish list’ were from the textile, engineering, and chemical sectors, and fresh fruits and vegetables.
Timing of the decision is intriguing.
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has just been treated to a ‘red carpet’ welcome. The visit marked the signing of a number of MoUs and agreements estimated at around $ 30 billion. And the visiting leader turned lyrical saying that the Sino-Pak relations would forge ahead ‘through thick and thin’.
The growing India- China business ties in particular are evidence enough to show that the closeness of Sino-Pak alliance is an anachronism of the trade guided global village.So what made Beijing to go back on a unilateral offer? The Business Recorder, which broke the story, groped for an answer but has failed to come up with any.
That is understandable since the Beijing decision is something of a shock to Islamabad which has invested so much trust and loyalty on its all-weather friend. It is time for Islamabad to learn Mandarin, may be the hard way.
China has built its economic power house by taking recourse to common sense where colour of the currency mattered little and ideology and arcane economic theories have no place. Premier Wen’s visit to Delhi and the results there of should put to rest any doubts to the contrary.
China is not seeing itself in the old Soviet mould- of rewarding allies and satellites often at its own cost. It will do business with Pakistan or any other country on its own terms and only when it is confident that the partner is in a position to bring some thing to the table.
Sadly, today, Pakistan is a big begging bowl. The country is reeling under an uncertain economic and political situation. A simple tax instrument like Reformed General Sales Tax suggested by the Bretton Woods twins as a precondition for a bailout package remains a hostage to politicking of beleaguered President Zardari and his premier Syed Yousuf Gillani.
The situation is compounded by State patronized non-State actors, who are using their ‘free time’ to indulge in some ‘fire power’ display at home. No surprise, therefore, only 13 percent are optimistic of growth in the New Year.
China may never give up on Pakistan as Premier Wen told the Pakistani law makers; China may like to jointly build with Pakistan a ‘splendid future’, as People’s Daily said in a post-Wen visit commentary but the unmistakable reality is that Beijing will not put its Yuan where its heart was once. All because of changed circumstances, which made the world court China openly, and not through friendly courtiers.
Historically speaking, Sino-Pak relations were an alliance of convenience stitched in the cold war era and were largely guided by mutual suspicion of India. The growing India- China business ties in particular are evidence enough to show that the closeness of Sino-Pak alliance is an anachronism of the trade guided global village.
Beijing’s decision to roll back its offer to buy more non-FTA items shows the growing structural weaknesses in the bilateral foundation. It also highlights what a Dawn commentator calls, serious stamina deficiency problem in the ties.
