According to various estimates, there are still about 20,000 people in the area controlled by the Tamil Tigers. The international community particularly India, the UN, the US and the UK have sought a pause in fighting and access to the northern areas to help the trapped Tamil civilians. The Sri Lankan forces, conscious of the pressure, have slowed down operations to avoid human casualties. They were using loudspeakers to call upon the remaining people to come out to safety zones.
ASSESSMENT
The 8 Sq Km area under the control of the LTTE is wholly surrounded by the Sri Lankan forces. On the northern side of the zone is Ampalavanapokkanai, which has since been taken over by the Sri Lankan forces. In the South is Velamulaivaikal. The western side is the Nandhikodal Lagoon, while the eastern side is the sea.
The LTTE had about 15 to 20,000 soldiers, including boys under the age group of 18. Sri Lankan Army Chief Sarath Fonseka claimed that they have killed over 15,000 LTTE cadres in the past two and a half years. LTTE, however, put its casualties only at half of this figure. There is no independent confirmation as there were no recoveries of bodies of these cadres, nor recovery of arms.
According to reliable security sources, the LTTE has recruited 5 to 10,000 new cadres in the past few months paying them about Rs 15,000/- per month. If there is only about 800 elite forces remained in the LTTE zone, where are the other cadres located? Apparently, many of the LTTE cadres were spread to different parts of the country including Jaffna, Colombo, eastern Batticoloa along with their arms and ammunition.
In the ongoing conventional war, the better-equipped Army would soon over-run the battle zone. The LTTE’s current focus appears to be saving Prabhakaran and his family and retain control over the territory as long they can. So far, there does not seem to be any panic among the LTTE cadres inside the battle zone, as could be seen from the accounts of people escaping from the combat zone.
It is not yet known whether the remaining 20,000 civilians are sympathizers of the LTTE and therefore decided to stay put voluntarily, or are forcefully held as human shields. Whatever the reason, the Sri Lankan last push could be delayed as long as these civilians remained there.
Another question is whether the Sri Lankan forces would be able to capture or kill Prabhakaran. If they could do it, the LTTE will be virtually de-capacitated for a long time to come. But if he escaped, he could re-organize cadres and start a guerrilla war. A number of cadres spread over different places including Colombo could turn out to be dangerous ‘human bombs’. Notwithstanding the Sri Lankan publicity campaign suggesting weakened LTTE morale and impending killing/capture of Prabhakaran, the realities on the ground are not so black and white. Since January, the Sri Lankan military has been giving out handouts of early completion of the war, which is still going on. Unless they finish off Prabhakaran quickly, they would have a serious problem in their hands to fight an invisible guerrilla war, in which the LTTE excelled.
The second massive problem awaiting the Sri Lankan government is increasing number of refugees. There are nearly 100,000 civilians in the camps in Vavuniya and there is already a major humanitarian crisis there. Another 100,000 have fled from battle zone in the past five days. The UN and the Sri Lankan government should start immediately a serious exercise to cater to this increasing number of refugees.
