Maldivian capital of Male is witnessing what are locally called ‘cost of living’ protests from April 30-May 1.
Maldives is a small country – an archipelago of over 1100 islands many of which are not inhabited. Population is 314,000. Tourism and fisheries are the mainstay of the $1.5 billion economy accounting for 28 percent of GDP (over 60% of forex), and both industries are hit by global recession that was ushered in by dollar meltdown in 2008. It was in 2008 that President Mohamed Nasheed came to office ending the 30-year long reign of President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, and his crony capitalism.
From all accounts, it is not a rollercoaster ride for Nasheed. While people welcomed his democratic credentials and the freedoms he has restored, they have reason to be unhappy with his management of the economy. The government has hiked prices of essential commodities linking the hike to the increase in global food and oil prices. Inflation peaked to 6.5 percent in February and unemployment soared to 16 percent plus with the services sector which accounts for nearly 65 per cent of work force reeling under dollar pain. A heavy dose of devaluation was also ordered which in effect pushed up the prices by almost 30 percent and made life miserable for average Maldivians. It is this latest decision that has brought simmering anger into the streets.
Maldives imports all its essential items and diesel. By allowing the Rifiya (the Maldivian currency) to float in a 20 per cent band, the Nasheed government has hit every body’s pocket by 20 per cent. Whether the government had a Plan B is not the question that is any longer relevant. Because the main opposition Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party, DRP, (Maldivian People’s Party), particularly Z-DRP faction of Gayoom loyalists, has jumped into the fray firing on all cylinders at ‘mismanagement and wasteful spending’ by the government. The party has little difficulty in funnelling public anger into street demonstrations, which have turned violent.
The May Day rallies saw the participation of around 5000 people, a record number for a place like Male, which is not even the size of an outstretched palm. In the forefront of the protests are the youth. Going by what ‘Minivan News’ reported Z-DRP faction lawmakers, Ahmed Mahlouf, Ilham Ahmed and the dismissed Deputy Leader, Umar Naseer were in the forefront of the agitation. They were joined by Dhivehi Qaumee Party (DQP) MP Riyaz Rasheed and Jumhoory Party (JP) MP Ibrahim Muthalib.
These are early days of protests. The government acted in a copy book style thus far and police used tear gas and baton charge, and rounded up scores of protesters. Official stand, as articulated by President’s Press Secretary Mohamed Zuhair is that the protestors turned violent and that forced the police hand. ‘We have numerous peaceful political rallies, protests, petitions and other forms of legitimate democratic activity throughout the year, which is a healthy part of our democracy. However, whenever Gayoom’s supporters take to the streets, it always seems to end in violence.’ said the Press Secretary.
Zuhair may be right. But the point is the government is not caught unawares by the protests. Public discontent is building up for a while.
By December 2009, the country had plunged into a balance of payment crisis with falling tourist arrivals and fish exports, combined with high government spending on subsidies, and salaries. A $79.3 million IMF standby agreement eased the situation but the global lender of last resort, withheld disbursement after the first two trenches, by voicing concern over Maldives’ growing budget deficit. On IMF prescription, the Nasheed government introduced a new Goods and Services Tax on Tourism (GST) in January 2011. It also announced plans to levy a new Business Profit Tax. Both moves brought in more unpopularity. So did the privatisation of the main Male airport and partial privatisation of the energy sector as the user charges have gone up.
President Nasheed cannot escape the blame for the deteriorating economic situation; he must realise it is not the time for his homilies.
Apparently, the opposition hopes to enact a Maldivian version of Tahrir Square and usher in a ‘revolution’. And Gayoom is determined to return to the centre stage by cashing in on the economic woes facing the country. Hence, the war cry that President Mohamed Nasheed must go. The irony may not be lost on the Maldivians, even if their memory of Gayoom’s autocratic rule has faded – acolytes of a dictator trying to pull down a democratically elected government.
There is no gain saying however that President Nasheed has to put his act together. He must deliver on economy. Talking democracy alone is not enough in these days when some remote atolls are witnessing a good dose of militancy.
