It was in this very area that a senior Al Qaeda figure Abu Yahya al Libi and 14 other militants were killed in a drone strike on June 4. In protest, Hafiz Gul Bahadur banned anti-polio vaccinations in North and South Waziristan, putting 240,000 children in the region at risk. He termed the immunization campaign as a cover for US espionage.
Americans will be more than happy to see the Haqqanis crippled from attacking their Afghan interests. This is a call to keep the Haqqani network starved of funds and intelligence inputs for which they depend on the ISI and its field formations. The Shawal area is dominated by Bahadur faction and they regularly target the American and other western troops in Afghanistan. There have been four drone attacks since the start of the holy month of Ramzan and two since Inter-Services Intelligence chief Lt Gen Zahir-ul-Islam visited Washington for talks with his CIA counterpart in early August.
Dawn reports that the compound in Shuwedar belonged to Mansoor, a commander` of a TTP faction. The Saturday strike also damaged a vehicle in the courtyard. It was the third drone attack since the start of Ramazan and it took place as some people were celebrating Eid in the area.
Pakistan has been asking for drone technology and assuring the Americans that it itself would launch the strikes on targets identified by the CIA. The demand is regularly articulated at the foreign office and army headquarters levels to keep the Islamist constituency in good humour. The US has not acceded to the demand. ISI chief raised the demand during his talks but with a rebuff.
The US wants Pakistan to act against Taliban and al-Qaeda elements, who have been given sanctuary in North Waziristan. It is one of the thorniest issues between Islamabad and Washington. Infact, the US has accused the Haqqani network of attacking its embassy in Kabul last September. Pakistan, in turn demands that Afghan and US forces do more to stop Pakistani Taliban crossing the Afghan border to launch attacks on its forces.
Put differently, North Waziristan operation has come to mean differently to the US and Pakistan. Americans will be more than happy to see the Haqqanis crippled from attacking their Afghan interests. This is a call to keep the Haqqani network on a tight leash in N Waziristan and make them starved of funds and intelligence inputs for which they depend on the ISI and its field formations.
Pakistan sees the Haqqanis as its strategic asset. It will be more than willing to do the American bidding if the Haqqanis are allowed a free hand in Khost, Paktia and Paktika which they dominate and as a trade off it will get them to commit that Kabul will not be attacked. The Americans are not convinced. In fact, they are not sure to what extent they can take the Kayani word on its face value.
Rawalpindi is conscious of the need to take on the might of Pakistani Taliban some of whose elements are ISI creations. But it is in no hurry. Its focus for the present is on Kurram and Orakzai which are giving no less headache. General Kayani is in no mood to risk his army’s image. With great difficulty, he had retrieved the image the army had lost under his predecessor Gen Musharraf. It has suffered severe dent with the killing of Osama bin Laden and the Salalah attack. Any operational set back now will open the army to public ridicule.
Against these behind the scene maneuvers, earlier this week, Defence Secretary Leon Panetta claimed Pakistan was preparing an operation against the Taliban in North Waziristan. He did not spell out a time frame.
On his part, Pakistan army chief, while declaring that his forces would undertake an operation in North Waziristan, ruled out acting under pressure. “No operation will be launched due to outside pressure”, he said in what is as a declaration for home consumption. Because, in the same breath, Kayani stated that the operation would be undertaken in North Waziristan “at a timeframe of our choosing and determined only by our political and military requirements”.
Already attacks by unmanned American aircraft are not popular and religious parties see the hits as a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty. They have been using the drones as a metaphor for inciting anti-Americanism in the country. And the talk of an operation in North Waziristan has become a good peg to polarize public opinion. All this public display has not come in the way of GHQ in Rawalpindi in collaborating with the Pentagon and CIA, though beyond the glare of roving cameras.
As Dawn editorially observed, as of now, Pakistani security establishment is more concerned about declaring its independence in the face of American pressure and denying the possibility of American boots on the ground than it is about building its own case for going into North Waziristan.
Every military operation will cost innocent lives as well. And any military operation demands public support which will come by only when people are sensitized. For too long Pakistan leadership, particularly the permanent establishment, which is the army, has not cared for public concerns in their pursuit of long term strategic goals and short term needs.
So much so, Gen Kayani reciting the people mantra is amusing, to say the least. Yes, it is a diversionary tactic. As a Pakistan commentator says, it is also ‘a strategic move’, and ‘public-relations step’ before laying out Pakistan’s own reasons’. Either way the general must remember that time is not on his side. It is, indeed, running out.
