To jump to the conclusion that Professor of Jihad has had a change heart will be neither here nor there. More so since he categorically told his audience that friendship with India would never be successful. His statement must be read in the context of four plus one other development.
One his bland denial of any involvement with Mumbai mayhem and with Abu Jundal, the terrorist, who is on a song in the Indian custody ever since the Saudis sent him back to Delhi Police custody. Second ‘discovery’ of an underground tunnel that opens up on the Indian side of the Line of Control. Sialkot, the venue for Hafez’s latest diatribe against India, lies at a mere 20 minutes drive from the Pakistan-India international border. Third the poor shape of Pakistan economy which makes trade and economic ties with India essential for survival of Pakistani scrip. Fourth the army’s willingness to let Islamabad enter into a trade dialogue with Delhi.
While the first two points only go to buttress the terrorist credentials of Hafiz Saeed, the other two factors compel him to moderate his tone without in anyway losing his face. Any how once the army, the main fountain head of jihadi spring has acknowledged the economic reality of Pakistan and fell in line with civilian rulers’ compulsions, the likes of Hafiz have no option but to fall in-line.
There is yet another compelling factor for Hafiz Saeed’s new tone. It is the looming water famine which will seriously affect winter crops and create a drinking water shortage. Pakistan Meteorological Department had predicted 15 per cent above-normal rains during this season, but so far it had been far from normal, prompting experts to sound alarm bells, according to a report in Dawn.
“All indicators are indicating that the country is fast heading towards an acute water crisis. This may lead to extreme irrigation water shortages, particularly for winter crops,” veteran weather pundit, Dr Qamaruzzaman Chaudhry told the daily.
Below-the-usual temperatures during April, May and part of June coupled with low rainfall were contributing to the alarming situation, according to him. Chaudhry, who is adviser to the ministry of defence on meteorology and climate affairs, believes that the country’s two major reservoirs – Mangla and Tarbela might not be filled to their capacity, even if there was a revival of the monsoon activity. Reduced flow in Jhelum will also severely affect hydropower generation at the Mangla power station currently producing almost 35 per cent of total hydroelectricity.
The distribution and flow of water from India to Pakistan is governed under the Indus water treaty.
