The Imran march will begin from Lahore the home turf of the Prime Minister Sharif on Aug 13 and will cover the 350 km distance to Islamabad in a day.  The government has mobilised police and security forces and appears to do everything but open confrontation to stall the march. Nawaz Sharif is rattled by Imran-Qadri combine’s demand for the dissolution of the parliament, and the establishment of a government of technocrats to hold fresh elections. But he doesn’t appear to have a counter strategy in place and has been fretting and fuming in public.

Imran’s cry that the 2013 ballot was rigged is not new. He cried foul immediately after the vote but he found few takers for his cause. One reason for this is the fact that his PTI party had won in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provincial assembly elections which were held simultaneously. Another reason is the reality check that rigging is a norm rather than an exception in Pakistan elections and the outcome is often influenced by the Army, the Islamists and the Clergy.  The short point is voting fraud alone would not deliver 190 seats to Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-Nawaz) party and just 34 seats to Imran’s party  in the 375-member National Assembly (Parliament).  

The businessman turned politician deftly exploited popular discontent against the government of Pakistan Peoples’ Party, promised better days to people reeling under price rise, and energy crunch, and offered a peace deal to the Islamist jihad groups like the Taliban of different hues. While he had capitalised on PPP’s bad run, he had no magic wand to turn around the scene and this is what has helped Imran – Qadri combine to stage a comeback on the centre stage.

So, like his predecessors, he also turned to the GHQ and handed over Islamabad to the Army’s care invoking a much abused constitutional provision, Art 245 which authorises deployment of the Army in aid of civil authority. More than 25,000 policemen and para-military forces  have been deployed  from Lahore and Islamabad, heavy trawler mounted containers have been placed to block “unauthorised” entry into the capital.  In the run upto the march, some 2000 activists have been arrested, according to the PTI – PAT claims.  The Sharif brothers also spoiled their copy book when the police opened fire in the Model Town of Lahore on Aug 8-9, and eight PAT workers were killed.

Notwithstanding his public posture, Prime Minister Sharif, and his brother Shahbaz Sharif, the chief minister of Punjab have kept themselves busy with back channels to  make Imran see reason.  This gambit has not paid dividends, as yet,  primarily because the swashbuckling cricketer of yesteryears has smelt blood. Moreover politics is a game of tradeoffs and face savers. He cannot afford to climb down with something that  gifts him a talking point, which need not necessarily his Demand No One: Sharif’s scalp.

Admittedly Imran and Qadri have made common cause to exploit widespread anger over Sharif’s failure to deliver on his promise. The belt tightening exercise Sharif has undertaken on the advice of global lenders of last resort has not touched the wealthy 20 per cent of the population which has perfected the art of dodging the taxman  but has made living miserable for the common man.  Prices have not shown any downward spiral  even during the Holy Month of Ramadan with daily necessities like tomatoes costing Pakistan Rupees 0ne hundred per kilogram. Unemployment amongst the youth hovers around seven percent even officially.  IMF-WB estimates show that  forty percent of Pakistanis live below the global poverty line of $US1.25 per day.  

Rampant corruption and energy crunch that has resulted in  no power supply upto 23 hours in a day in some parts of the country have boosted the dissatisfaction index to the glee of Imran Khan and Qadri to settle his scores with the Sharifs even as they find a new rallying point in the military offensive against the Taliban militants who have created a mini-Islamist Emirates in North Waziristan.