Terrorism

India likely to act militarily if faced with another 26/11: American think tank

A prominent American think-tank says India may retaliate militarily if faced with a Mumbai type attack by Pakistan-based terror groups under Al Qaeda direction.

‘The threat of another Mumbai-type attack is undeniable; numerous Pakistan-based groups remain motivated and able to strike Indian targets’, South Asia expert, Daniel Markey of Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) says in his 11-page paper ‘Terrorism and Indo-Pakistani Escalation’.

According to him, many of the Pakistan-based terror groups have incentives to act as spoilers, whether to disrupt efforts to improve Indo-Pak ties or to distract Islamabad from counter-terror crackdown at home ., said Markey, a known South Asia expert.

Noting that the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad are the most capable and motivated to carry out attacks in India, he said there is a possibility of these groups acting under the directions of Al Qaeda next time around. If Al Qaeda leadership feels threatened in the Pak/Afghanistan border areas, ‘it might direct and assist regional proxies to attack India as a way to ignite a distracting Indo-Pakistani confrontation’.

The Markey report says that though other regional terrorist groups, including those based in India, are improving their capacity to inflict mass-casualty violence, they are far less likely to spark another India-Pak crisis ‘because these outfits lack clear-cut connections to Pakistan-based organisations’.

The more clearly a terrorist attack can be identified as having originated in Pakistan, the more likely India is to retaliate militarily. The groups India perceives to have closer links with Pakistan’s military and intelligence establishment are more likely to ‘inspire retaliation against official Pakistani state targets’ than those that are perceived as more autonomous, such as the Al Qaeda, the report adds. It points out that India has been not happy with Islamabad’s response to the Mumbai attacks. The trail of the key accused is moving tardily in Pak courts. More over, the LeT ideologue Hafiz Muhammad Saeed is not in custody.

With these realities offering ammunition to Indian advocates for unilateral military retaliation, Markey’s paper said ‘should multiple attacks occur in quick succession, the cumulative effect would further diminish India’s inclination for restraint’.

In his assessment New Delhi could resort to aerial strikes on suspected terrorist training camps ‘if it determines that the assailants had acted with little or indirect assistance from Pakistan’s military or intelligence agencies’.

‘During these operations, India would attempt to limit civilian casualties and direct combat with the Pakistani military to reduce the prospects for escalation. Such an attack would not significantly curtail the terrorist threat, but it might satisfy India’s domestic compulsions to punish the perpetrators’, he opines.
 
Markey expects Pakistan’s response to any sort of Indian military retaliation even under domestic pressure could be ‘intentionally disproportionate’ so as to compel the international community to force a ceasefire.
He adds Pakistan’s present government and military command also have meaningful incentives to calibrate their actions from the start, not least the desire to limit international pressure and to retain ties with partners in Beijing, Riyadh and Washington.

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