The March 2 ballot for new Iranian parliament has thrown up no surprises. Conservatives have won overwhelmingly in the 290-member Majlis. A second round of ballot will take place in April in the few districts where no candidate received 25 per cent or more of the votes cast. It is unlikely to change the composition of the new Parliament- the ninth after the Iranian revolution overthrew Shah Reza Pahlavi in 1979, and the 32nd parliament in the long Iranian history. In all, 3400 candidates entered the fray from 31 provinces.
Washington has never forgiven Islamic regime for overthrowing Shah Reza Pahlavi and thus dealing a blow to US plans in the Middle East.
The two political alliances seen as closely aligned to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the highest-ranking religious and political authority in Iran —the United Front of Conservatives and the Islamic Stability Front will have a majority. While the United Front bagged 101 seats, the Islamic Stability Front won 50 seats. Ali Larijani, who heads the UFC, is the Speaker of the outgoing house. He is likely to retain the post in the new house. He may stand in the Presidential race next year.
Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi who leads the Islamic Stability Front, was close to President Ahmadinejad till last year. His strength comes from Qom, one of the main Shiite Muslim religious centers of Iran. The Revolutionary Guards appear to have shifted its weight behind Yazdi to the discomfort of Ahmadinejad.
The poll outcome was a major setback for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has one more year left in his second term. The pro-Ahmadinejad parliamentary alliance Monotheism and Justice, has won just 44 seats. With weakened support in the new parliament, Ahmadinejad will henceforth be no more than a lame duck. He cannot seek another term under the Iranian constitution.
The election was indeed a contest between supporters and opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad within the conservative camp. In the wake of the crushing of reformist protest against the 2009 election results, few, if any, reformist candidates ran for parliament.
The Reformist parliamentary bloc also fared poorly. It has won 51 seats, much less than the strength it had in the outgoing parliament. This bloc generally favours a rapprochement with the United States, and advocates aggressive free market economic policies – both planks have few takers in today’s Iran with the N-stand off threatening to graduate from war of rhetoric.
In a sense the poll outcome with a 64 per cent turn out is an expression of the silent majority to close ranks in the face of threat to the sovereignty of the country. It is also an expression of willingness to take in the stride the difficulties the US led sanctions are creating for the country.
Ali Larijani and his United Front of Conservatives are not averse to seek some accommodation with the US and the EU over Iran’s nuclear program, while maintaining Tehran’s commitment to the development of civilian nuclear research and power generation.
Reports from Tehran and the expatriate community, which is mostly the US based, speak of tough economic conditions. Inflation is spiraling, unemployment is zooming, and the already inadequate infrastructure is crumbling. The Ahmadinejad government has responded with tough austerity measures, including the removal of price subsidies on oil and food items, which have undermined the president’s posturing as a defender of the poor.
The dispute between the president and the supreme leader came to a head in April 2011, when Khamenei reversed a decision by Ahmadinejad to dismiss the intelligence minister, Heydar Moslehi, amid allegations that he was working to undermine key backers of the president. Khamenei also forced Esfandiar Mashaei, one of Ahmadinejad’s top aides, to resign. As the Supreme spiritual leader, Khamenei commands enormous respect and wields the power to overrule government decisions “whenever necessary.”
