The elections held in Iran last Friday, Feb 26, have strengthened the faction of the Islamic Republic that favours speedy rapprochement with Washington and has spearheaded the push for neo-liberal restructuring.
This faction is led by Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, and by his long time mentor, former two-term President Hashemi Rafsanjani.
At stake in Friday’s elections were the composition of Iran’s 290-seat parliament and the 88-member Assembly of Experts. Membership in the latter body, which chooses and oversees the work of Iran’s supreme leader, is restricted to Muslim clerics.
Because the current supreme leader, 76-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is in poor health, it is likely the incoming Assembly of Experts will have to choose his successor at some point during its eight-year term. Consequently, the outcome of this year’s Assembly election has been considered especially important.
The precise makeup of Iran’s new parliament is not yet known, as there will have to be run-off elections in April to fill about 15 percent of the seats.
Nevertheless, the partial results do indicate that the Rouhani-Rafsanjani faction rallied substantial support, enabling it to make major gains in both Iran’s parliament and the Assembly of Experts at the expense of its “hard-line” rivals, the Principalists.
Comprised of staunch Shia religious conservatives and elements with ties to the Revolutionary Guards and their substantial business interests, the Principalists have voiced concerns and in some cases outright opposition to the nuclear deal that Rouhani, with Supreme Leader Khamenei’s blessing, reached with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany.
Under that agreement, Iran has made sweeping concessions, including dismantling much of its civilian nuclear program and submitting to the most intrusive-ever International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection regime, in exchange for the US and its European Union allies lifting the economic sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy.
The Principalists have also criticized the Rouhani government for its plans to auction off Iran’s oil resources to the Western oil giants, advocating instead the continuation of a nationally focused “resistance economy.”
The electoral gains for the Rouhani-Rafsanjani faction were especially pronounced in Tehran, which, with a population of some 16 million, is home to more than one-fifth of Iran’s population. Running under the “List of Hope” label, it won all 30 of Tehran’s parliamentary seats and 15 of Tehran’s 16 seats in the Assembly of Experts. Prior to the elections, the Rouhani government had the support of just two Tehran MPs.
Rafsanjani topped the polls in the Tehran district-wide Assembly of Experts election, while Rouhani finished third. The defeated included Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, the outgoing head of the Assembly, and Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, mentor and spiritual adviser to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—a populist, closely identified with the Principalists, who served as Iran’s president from 2005 to 2013.
The turnout in Tehran was just 50 percent, a sharp contrast to the nationwide average of 62 percent. The Rafsanjani-Rouhani faction improved its showing in other large Iranian cities, albeit less dramatically than in Tehran. Its Principalist rivals, however, have reportedly won most of the smaller towns and rural areas.
The BBC said “hardliners” won in excess of 150 seats and the “reformists” 111, while Reuters and Al Jazeera gave “conservatives” between 35 and 40 percent of the seats, “reformists” 30 percent and independents slightly more than 15 percent.
A significant factor in the Rouhani-Rafsanjani faction’s strong electoral showing was its ability to draw support from other groupings. Former President Khatami lent support, as did many leaders of the “Greens.” Khatami’s former first Vice President Mohammed Reza Aref was the biggest “List of Hope” vote-getter in Tehran.
The pro-Rouhani government slate also drew support from prominent figures, including noted social conservatives previously associated with the Principalists. Chief among them was the current parliamentary speaker, Ali Larijani, who hails from one of Iran’s most powerful clerical establishment families. Larijani’s re-election was also endorsed by one of the Revolutionary Guards’ most prominent leaders, Quds Force Commander General Qassem Suleimani.
A major objective of the Rouhani government is to rewrite the regulations governing the country’s oil industry to entice European and ultimately US capital. Its hope is that a flood of western investment, seeking to take advantage of Iran’s abundant skilled cheap-labour and natural resources, will buoy the economy, providing the regime with sufficient political support.