Just when the clock started ticking to herald the New Year, the US-led coalition pounded the IS positions in Syria and Iraq with 31 air strikes on Dec 28.
Some thirteen hits targeted the Syrian town of Kobane on the border with Turkey, and destroyed 19 fighting positions, as well as IS buildings, staging areas and a vehicle, according to the Pentagon. A drilling tower, several tactical units were also hit.
In Iraq, the coalition carried out 15 raids across seven locations. An IS rocket system was destroyed near the town of Al Asad in Anbar province.
It is no body’s case that the latest strikes have immobilised the IS as such but these have shown that the IS has not proved to be a game changer jihad-wise.
There is no denying that the IS changed the contours of the global jihadi movement. It has become a rallying point for the jihadi splinter groups that had their roots in the US-led Afghan war.
Yet, it did not lead to a surge in jihadi warriors though there have been many reports of educated youth from UK to India joining the IS ranks. Nor did it succeed in replacing the good old Al Qaeda. IS strike rate has not spelt mass defections to its fold either.
The IS has not found endorsement from ideologues like Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi and Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who have been highly critical of the Islamic State’s declaration of a caliphate.
The groups that have declared their allegiance to IS are not new entities. Most of them are splinters like Jund al-Khilifah in Algeria, which has split from Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Abu Sayyaf group (Philippines), a faction of the former Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia, a faction of Libyan jihadists in the Derna area, Sinai faction of Ansar Beit al-Maqdis in Egypt, the Dagestani faction of the Caucasus Emirates, and some Taliban factions active in North Waziristan of Pakistan. Boko Haram appears to ape IS methods in North-east Nigeria.
Enterprise Jihad is not a monolith as such; the IS and Al Qaeda are battling out for top honours in Syria and Iraq even as they work together occasionally to take on the common enemy. What had brought them into conflict in 2014 was the control of oil fields; the IS clashed with al Qaeda franchise group Jabhat al-Nusra, and took control of Deir el-Zour after a bloody bath, for instance.
Writing for Stratfor, analyst Scott Stewart avers that the Islamic State has certainly grown on the ground in Iraq and Syria, both by absorbing other groups and by recruiting new local and foreign fighters. “However, we have not seen the group expand beyond its core areas of operation in a meaningful way. The organization’s growth outside its core area can be attributed solely to the rebranding of existing jihadist groups and to the splintering of existing groups. New Islamic State groups have not emerged”.
His conclusion: There is little evidence to indicate that the pool of grassroots jihadists is appreciably larger than it was before the Islamic State split away from the al Qaeda orbit. The number and severity of jihadi attacks are rather modest.
The IS has remained in the headlines with its gruesome videos posted on the internet. The posts presenting the brutal killing of US journalists, and other foreign hostages did not give the jihadi spearhead any brownie points, though they did spread fear. In fact, it had invited criticism from fellow jihadi groups besides Muslim clergy since the victims were mostly Muslims.
According to several analysts, Al Qaeda franchise groups seem moderate in comparison to the IS. For instance, Jabhat al-Nusra has executed prisoners and people accused of spying, but it has largely used bullets rather than beheadings. The group did not post such executions on the Internet as the Islamic State has done to gruesome effect.
Now to the question: Has the jihadi movement weakened globally. The answer is a resounding yes if the debate is confined to the IS and the Al Qaeda. And the answer is a resounding no if the threat posed by the likes of Hizb-ut-Tahrir is factored in.
– By Ram Singh Kalchuri
