Curtains have come down on the LTTE saga. Sri Lanka army killed Velupillai Prabhakaran on Sunday May 17 night, when he was reportedly trying to escape from Vellamullivaikkal on the Mullaitivu coast to the Mullaitivu forests.

The army has confirmed the killing on Monday afternoon around 1pm and the state run TV immediately flashed the ‘news’ but President Rajapaksa will make a formal announcement on Tuesday May 19 after the DNA tests are carried out on the bodies of Prabhakaran and other Tigers leaders like Pottu Amman, the intelligence chief and Soosai, the Sea Tigers’ head.

The Sri Lanka army has been maintaining an element of mystery over the fate of Prabhakaran whom the President Rajapaksa called a psychopath.   Reports have been in circulation about the fate of LTTE supremo since Saturday with pro-government media going to the town that he was indeed killed. But officially there was deafening silence.

The army is known to release news from the front-line in installments. It is a very calibrated way of extracting maximum mileage.  The same strategy was adopted in breaking the news about the elimination of top leadership of Tigers over the past 24-hours. 

Initial ‘dose’ of news said Prabhakarn was hold up in some 400×500 small box area and that Special Forces commandos were inching their way to the hideout by defusing the mines all along the route.  Then came the report that he was trying to escape in an armour plated bus and that a large number of body guards, who were protecting him, were engaged in a battle with the commandos.  Shortly after mid-day came the next installment – Prabhakaran shot dead while escaping.

It is now clearly and irrefutably established that Wanni based top leadership of the Tigers has been eliminated. Comprehensive and complete victory for the army in the two-year old Eelam War IV. Those killed are Tigers’ intelligence chief Pottu Amman, Political Head, Natesan, Sea Tigers head Soosai, police chief, Ramesh Illango, and Pulidevan of the Peace Secretariat besides Charles Anthony, son of Prabhakaran.

Minutes before Prabhakaran’s end was broadcast, bullet ridden Charles body was shown on the State TV, Roopavahini.

INTRIGUING STRATEGY

The media strategy of SL government is intriguing. Just as it gives an aura to the army, it can give negative dividends.

It is possible that the ‘delay’ in going public with the VP end is to beef up security in Colombo to meet any eventuality as people are expected to pour out into the streets for celebrations. Also the need to complete the ‘mop up’ ops in Mullaitivu  and to ready a picture perfect scene for the international media which is expected to descend on the ‘battle zone’.

On the negative side, firstly, it confirms for the nth time that Prabhakaran was true to his word of fighting till the end.

Secondly, it confirms that he did not run away from the scene by either the sea route (submarine) or the air (in a small plane) to hide in Malaysia or Thailand where the LTTE has influential pockets. 

Thirdly, it will give legitimacy to the report (which even the Independent of London picked up) that the 54-year-old son of former government clerk, who had waged a war on Colombo, had committed suicide with several of his aides. 

The Lanka army Sunday came across several bodies at one place in the battle field. A packet of personal arms like pistols wrapped in the Tiger’s flag was found near the bodies. These arms could be of the top brass who had committed suicide.

Fourthly and most importantly, these facts will add to the Prabhakarn myth and will become a part of the Tamil folklore and could act as a tonic to the die-hard Eelam advocates.

HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY

All this may not be good news in the medium to long term for President Rajapaksa who is going all out to cash in on the war euphoria for electoral gains. He is expected to call in early parliament elections. A clean sweep at the hustings will be a well deserved reward for a person who had come to office on the plank of peace but gave a free hand to the security forces in the Eelam War IV, curbed media freedom and violated human rights with impunity ignoring the protests of the civilised world. 

He has been promising to reach out to the Tamils once the war ended but his administration has stoked the fires of Sinhalese nationalism for Southern consensus and for survival in Parliament where his government lacked majority even to pass the country’s budget.

Today President Rajapaksa has an historic opportunity to be the statesman Sri Lanka badly needs. He must utilise the opportunity to end the marginalization of Tamil minority to which status they were reduced from the early days of independence. He should not let the moment to slip by.   And demonstrate genuine political devolution

The one thing that is in favour of Rajapaksa is that neither the Lanka Tamil diaspora nor the remnants of Tigers is in a position to mount a new operation. The diaspora is swayed as much by emotions as by fear of the Tiger.

Now that the Tigers are finished on the battle field, the diaspora will no longer will be enamoured of the Eelam dream. They will factor in the reality that the governments of the countries they are settled will not look kindly to any ‘Tigerisms’. Human Rights issue is taking a back seat with all the focus shifted towards relief to the displaced families, demining of Northern battle field and economic resurrection of the Tamil belt.

The diaspora will be more than willing to lend a helping hand in reviving the Northern economy. The funds they were offering to the LTTE can now flow into the local fund for development. The President should reach out to them as a part of his need to win over the Tamils.

NO THREAT FROM REMNANTS

Our assessment is that the Tiger remnants will not pose a threat to Colombo in the near to short term. Yes, an estimated 3000 Tiger cadres have slipped out of the battle zone by mixing with the last batch of civilians who have escaped to the safe region.  They have no leader who can inspire them and guide them. All known leaders based in Wanni are dead. Prabhakaran did not allow, much less encourage, a second rung leadership. For him LTTE was Prabhakaran and Prabhakaran was LTTE.  

So, these remnants grouping or posing a threat appear very, very bleak.  True, they can always be a nucleus of a new LTTE type militant organisation. But it is a far fetched proposition. Nonetheless, a caveat will be in order.

If President Rajapaksa gets carried away by the Sinhala Buddhist exuberance, the danger of some extremist fringe appearing some day cannot be ruled out. That fringe will not be a match to the LTTE, which had its birth in a different era.

Prabhakaran founded Tamil New Tigers in 1972. He became a darling of the Tamil masses three years later in 1975 by killing Alfred Duraiyappah, the ‘People’s Mayor’ of Jaffna.

The assassination transformed TNT into LTTE. And Eelam war was launched in 1983. 

In these days when the entire world is geared to fight terrorism of all hues and when it doesn’t see kindly any insurgency, LTTE clones will, as and when they intend to make their presence felt or appear as a significant force, will find themselves orphaned from day one. Without oxygen home made or supplied from oversea, no movement can take off.

POLITICAL VACCUM

For the present the advantage is clearly with Rajapaksa. His handicap, however, is total absence of recognizable leadership amongst the ethnic Tamils of his country. He did not strive to nurture respectable voices and contended himself with pampering the likes of Karuna, whom he had helped to break from LTTE. Such leaders lacked credibility and carried a discount. Prabhakaran contributed no less by killing not only established leaders but also anyone who appeared with some potential to emerge as a rallying point.

The civilian Tamil leadership vacuum must be quickly filled. This is a challenge to the ingenuity of moderate Tamils at home and abroad. They must put their act quickly and see that the vacuum is filled.

India has reason to feel satisfied at the developments in Sri Lanka. It has an emotional and diplomatic interest in what happens in the country which is separated by a small stretch of ocean waters, known as Palk Straits.  India’s southern state Tamilnadu is a Tamil speaking province. Emotions and family ties bind these Tamils with the Tamils of Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka.  Yet, the Tamilnadu politics are not swayed beyond a point over what happens in Sri Lanka. This has been clearly demonstrated by the Tamilnadu people’s verdict in the just concluded Indian Parliament elections.

TAMILNADU VERDICT-CUSHION

All known pro-LTTE political forces were completely routed. MDMK, whose leader V Gopalaswamy, alias Vaiko, who loves to publicly swear by his love of LTTE, was defeated. So were other leaders of smaller parties who have been speaking for Prabhakaran for a long while. Even the AIADMK of Jayalalithaa Jayaram, who was the chief minister of the province a while ago, bite dust. It had entered the fray with the promise to send Indian army to Sri Lanka to carve out an Eelam (country) for the ethnic Tamils there.

Put differently, people of Tamilnadu have demonstrated that Sri Lanka Tamil issue is not an issue to them.  Muthavel Karunanidhi, the chief minister, who is also the grand old man of Dravidian politics, appears to have read the pulse clearly. He did indulge in some grand rhetoric to match word-for-word the Jayalalithaa polemics.  Undertook a breakfast to lunch hunger strike clamouring for ‘ceasefire’ on the eve of Colombo’s decision to stop use of heavy mortars, and declared ‘ be soft on LTTE but not on the assassins of Rajiv Gandhi’ who from jail are pleading for remission of jail term. Generally, Karunanidhi has been going with the policy of Delhi. His DMK party is a member of the Congress led coalition government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

INDIAN LEVERAGE

Singh, who begins his second prime ministerial innings on May 21, can be expected to utilise whatever leverages India has in prodding President Rajapaksa to deliver on his promise to Tamils. His government will extend a helping hand for economic rehabilitation of east and northern Sri Lanka.  

Chinese support to Sri Lanka is no longer crucial as it was during the time of the war over the LTTE. Colombo needed arms. China as also Pakistan made the arms available as India did not offer significant military aid. Neither of these two countries is in a position to extend the type of economic help India is able and willing to offer.

Already, India is the only country running a ‘base’ hospital in war ravaged zone. It has lined up huge plans that range from power plants to civic infrastructure. The toe-hold as some see it China has got by way of working on $1 billion Hambantota port is just a toe-hold. Nothing more.

India is a huge market for Lanka goods that range from good old spices and tea to garments and petrol and natural gas. Even President Zardari of Pakistan has started speaking of Indian market as good outlet for his country’s economic turnaround.

Geography is something no one can deny. It gives India the advantage and Sri Lanka the cushion it needs certainly when it is finding it tough to secure a liberal IMF loan.