The general impression is that Gen Mattis pushed for operations in the North Waziristan where the Haqqani network that has become a pain for the US and Afghanistan is based. But the H-word did not figure in the official briefings. Clearly the Pakistani establishment would not like to send the signal that it is acting under American pressure on a strategic asset of the nation of the pure. The US side has no such compulsions. Yet they are careful to not cause any embarrassment to their long time ally in the war against terrorism. The nearest they had come therefore to share the inside track with the media was the remark in the American embassy release that the talks covered ‘militant network activities’ in addition to cross-border cooperation.
For the record, both sides expressed happiness at the outcome of the talks. The US side declared the talks as ‘successful’ and said the generals “had agreed to continue to meet periodically to further common objectives on cross-border cooperation and regional security”.
The Pakistani side said the talks ended on a positive note. “Both sides expressed satisfaction over the level of cooperation between the two militaries and resolved to continue it to further improve relations between the two countries.”
Gen Kayani is on the horns of a dilemma in balancing American pressure and public concerns, going by the army press release.
Gen Kayani told Gen Mattis that the timing of the military operation would be determined by “our political and military” considerations, an army press release said. . It quoted Kayani as telling his guest of Pakistan’s clearly stated redline. “We might, if necessary, undertake operations in NWA”. In the same breath he asserts that the operation “will never be a result of any outside pressure. Pakistan’s national interest continues to be the prime consideration for any decision in this regard”.
Put bluntly General Kayani has used the American commander’s visit to set at rest ‘doubts’ created by the US media that NW ops will be launched any moment from now on. These doubts were sparked off after Gen Kayani had a rather friendly meeting with Isaf Commander Gen John Allen over joint operations in North Waziristan.
The army appears to be allergic to the expression ‘joint operation’. Its preference is for ‘coordinated action’ an expression that finds a place in the press release. Incidentally, the copyright for the expression rests with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. On July 3, while expressing regrets for the Salala incident of last November, she talked of the need for “coordinated actions against terrorists who threaten Pakistan and the region.
The regret paved the way for resumption of NATO supplies through Pak soil and a visit to Washington by the ISI chief Lt Gen Zaheerul Islam where he met the CIA director amongst others. On his return he gave a detailed briefing to the corps commanders who constitute the Rawalpindi Shura. Thus much preparation preceded Kayani- Mattis talks.
Given the practice of Pakistan army where American interests are involved, the North Waziristan operation may be launched quietly without much fuss. American boots will not be allowed on Pak soil to avoid a public backlash but there will be a simultaneous operation on either side of the Af-Pak border to deny breathing space to the Haqqani network. Well, this is what a coordinated action implies, and this is what suits both sides.
For the success of any military operation, certainly the ops against the Haqqanis, intelligence will be an important input. But the question is: Will the US like to share their intelligence input with the Pak army? They had a bad experience in the past and found that every time some info was shared, the targetted militant groups were alerted and they made vanishing trick. This is one reason why Pentagon has steadfastly refused a role for Pakistan in its drone operations though the drones regularly take off from Balochistan and shower missiles on Waziristan and other tribal pockets known as the safe haven of terrorists of all hues.
So, if the past is any guide, now also the US may refuse to part with intelligence in N Waziristan. Instead it may allow its forces to quietly carry out hit and run forays to the discomfort of Gen Kayani. What could be his response in such an eventuality? Well, he may not officially react but the near defunct DPC may spring back into action.
Other defence analysts say that it is typical of the Americans to come to meet top Pakistani leadership at a time when Pakistanis are confronted with a difficult situation, since this is an appropriate time to dictate terms. They say General Kayani should have avoided meeting any American general at a time when the US defence secretary spoke of the possibility of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists. Alternately he may quietly acquiesce to the elimination of ‘common enemy’ – Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Hakimullah Mehsud.
