INDIA-SRILANKA-MALDIVES

N-tech: India far behind Pakistan, China?

Any discussion on military might should include the industrial base also. Economy must be sound and be able to withstand shocks. Only then the weapon in the hand appears tantalizingly frightening. A crumbling economy or an economy that is failing gives no respectability to the weapon; in fact the weapon becomes the easy prey for war lords from the badlands

A topic of endless discussion among the hawks is now joined by two American experts to argue that India is far behind Pakistan, and China in terms of nuclear technology, and that Pakistan is one-up on India in respect of missile technology.

Though India tested its Agni-5 this year, its missile force is lagging Pakistan and China, which have substantial deployed missile arsenals, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. It claims that Indian delivery systems have reliability issues.

These doubts have been voiced by Hans M Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists and Robert S Norris, Senior Research Associate Natural Resources Defence Council Inc, Washington.

Writing in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the two claim that the principal means of weapons delivery for India remains fixed-wing aircraft like the Mirage-2000 and the Jaguar. Agni I and Agni II are still not fully operationalised.  Others in the Agni series – Agni III, IV and V – are under development.

Bulk of the Indian ballistic missile force comprises three versions of Prithvi missiles, but only one of them, ‘the army’s Prithvi I, has a nuclear role’. It requires hours to get ready for launch and has a range of just 150km. Having said the ‘bad’ word, the two scientists have a word of cheer for Agni V. They contend that the new Agni variant has introduced “a new dynamic into the already complex triangular security relationship between India, Pakistan and China”.

There is no denial that the DRDO the Indian agency entrusted with developing missile technology and other innovations has a mixed track record. All its projects are generally hit by cost and time over runs. In fact it has not delivered on all its promises. Nonetheless its contribution to making the Indian security forces take advantage of cutting edge technologies should not be ignored, much less undermined, since the Indian scientists, unlike their counterparts in Pakistan and China, are working in a democratic milieu with several checks and balances.

How many nuclear war heads are there with India and its rivals? Kristensen – Norris combine have come up with an estimate. Pakistan, as of 2011, has ‘90-110 nuclear weapons’. In contrast India is credited with 80-100 nuclear warheads. Pakistan today has the world’s fastest-growing nuclear stockpile, according to them and their estimate

Pakistan missiles are less Pakistani in content and shape. With Chinese-supplied missiles, it has come up with Ghaznavi, Shaheen I and Ghauri. It has a India-specific missile in short-range Nasr (70km). Pakistan is in the advanced stage of developing two cruise missiles – the Babar and the Raad.

Vis-à-vis China, India’s missile shield is not very impressive. Chinese has 240 missiles and their range varies from 2,000 to 11,000km

Any discussion on military might should include the industrial base also. Economy must be sound and be able to withstand shocks. Only then the weapon in the hand appears tantalizingly frightening.  A crumbling economy or an economy that is failing gives no respectability to the weapon; in fact the weapon becomes the easy prey for war lords from the badlands

With such a yardstick, the nuclear Pakistan fares badly. And the discourse brings up nightmare.  US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta, for instance, has been putting the focus on the flipside of Pakistan by regularly articulating the danger of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists.   “The great danger we’ve always feared is that if terrorism is not controlled in their country, then those nuclear weapons could fall into the wrong hands,” Panetta told reporters at a Pentagon news conference on August 15

Congressional Research Service also voiced similar fears. “The multiple attacks on Pakistani military facilities in recent years by terrorists heightened the fears in the West that nuclear weapons can fall into the hands of terrorists”, it said in a recent report.

Now in terms of economy, Pakistan ranks among bottom 20 of the 144 economies around the world in The Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013. The report released by Davos based World Economic Forum (on Sept 5) points out Pakistan lacks a long-term view of competitiveness. The level of corruption and poor governance are some of the factors slowing down Pakistan’s economic growth, therefore ranking Pakistan at 124 among 144 other countries on the index

‘Pakistan has lost its competitive advantage almost on all the pillars of the competitiveness index except for in Health, Primary Education and Labour market Efficiency’, according to Amir Jahangir Chief Executive Officer Mishal Pakistan, country partner for the Center of Global Competitiveness and Performance at the World Economic Forum.

The Pakistani business community has identified corruption as the most problematic factor for doing business in the country.

The reference to Pakistan’s economy is only to underscore the difference between the two nuclear neighbours.  This is not a case for complacency.  India’s former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran made this point though his focus was on China while delivering the prestigious K. Subrahmanyam Memorial Lecture in Delhi recently. India should not be militarily provocative but that it should have enough capabilities deployed to convince the other side that aggressive moves would invite counter-moves.

 -malladi rama rao

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