Coinciding as it does with the Memo Gate that had exposed the feet of clay of President Asif Ali Zardari, the border outrage will enable the Pakistani army chief to entrench his position as the real ruler with no clamour whatsoever for official trappings, to the dismay of the entire political class who will hence forth be formally reduced to playing second fiddle to the GHQ and its ISI.
All this and much more, which will be a chroniclers’ delight any day, in no way diminishes the ground reality that guarding the Af-Pak border will remain a test to the ability of the U.S and its NATO allies. Yes, it is a challenge that may go beyond the normal competence of the eyes in the sky and ears on the ground since the Taliban know the area as the back of their hand, and will continue to hit targets at will before running back to sanctuaries from where they turn into Pakistan army’s auxiliary force.
America, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in Kabul in October, may want to send ‘a very clear message to the insurgents on both sides of the border that we are going to fight you and we are going to seek you in your safe havens, whether you’re on the Afghan side or the Pakistani side’. But the question is and will be: how to send the message. If Nov 26 mode is the method of sending the message -by an early morning attack from helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, Washington will remain glued to where it is now.
Like in the deadliest June 2008 attack, when 11 Pakistani paramilitary soldiers were killed after they were mistaken to be Taliban fighters, in the latest raid the worst ever blood bath was created by mistake and Salala, the Pakistani village bordering Afghanistan’s Kunar province, where two newly created check posts were targeted, will remain a part of Pakistan folklore.
Two things will happen. One the US will find it difficult to talk to the Haqqani network which is the Taliban’s most fierce fighting force, and at least publicly Pakistan army will go to great lengths to keep off the talks trajectory. Second, there will be question mark over the Bonn Conference, which is planned to fashion a package for Afghanistan after the global cop leaves the place.
On the domestic front- for President Obama, Salala soaked in blood will be the booster does in time for his primaries. Most Americans will see Pakistan as their enemy number one.
On the domestic front, for President Zardari, blood soaked Salala will mean requiem for any hopes of civilian ascendency of the power structure in Pakistan.
There is going to be some saber-rattling from Pakistan side just to make a point, not to prove a point. And after some cooling off, things will be near normal, like always.
For students of Pakistan history, the high point will, however, be Pakistan publicly asking CIA to stop flying militant-killing drone flights from Shamsi air base; the order comes after denying for years any knowledge of the flight path of the American drones and, of course, the very American presence there.
Shamsi will remain the bench mark in deception by a government and its army of its own people, just as Salala will remain the bench mark on how not to conduct anti-insurgency aerial operation.
