28th May is a significant day in the history of Nepal, as the country was declared a Federal Democratic Republic on this day in 2008, abolishing 273 year old Monarchy, vesting all executive powers in the elected head, the Prime Minister of the Himalayan nation. The country’s Parliament was reinstated on May 18, 2006 after a popular Jan Andolan, ending the second spell of direct rule by the last king of Nepal, King Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah who continued as Constitutional Head till he was deposed.
Nepal had witnessed frequent change of Heads of Government and as many as 14 Prime Ministers changed from 1990 to 2008 and the trend continued even after the country was declared a Federal Democratic Republic in 2008. Eight Prime Ministers occupied the highest executive post since then, including the present incumbent K. P. Sharma Oli. The frequent change of Heads of Government, as many as 22 in a brief period of 25 years from 1990, when democracy was restored replacing Panchayati Raj, till 2015 and two spells of direct rule by the King goes to prove how turbulent the Nepali political horizon had been during all those times.
The same situation continues even today. Political leaders of all hues in Nepal continue to indulge in power politics, without caring for the larger interest of the country and peace and development, which a severely earthquake battered nation needs the most. The present coalition government led by the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist, CPN- UML) with main partner as the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) took over in October 2015.
The tenure of the present Parliament ends on 21st January, 2018, less than 20 months from now but before that the Oli government has the onerous task of implementation of the Constitution promulgated on 20th September last year, holding of local bodies and municipal elections, completion of the peace process and passage of a large number of bills needing approval under the new Constitution.
The people of Nepal heaved a sigh of relief when Oli government survived the Maoist onslaught in the first week of May 2016, when the UCPN (Maoist) leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Prachanda, while hobnobbing with the main opposition Nepali Congress, threatened to withdraw from the coalition government. He made a U-turn at the last minute though but it came at a cost.
With this swift movement, ties between India and Nepal had further soured. Oli and his party blamed India for trying to destabilize his government which New Delhi stoutly denied. Nepal cancelled the visit of President Vidya Devi Bhandari to India at the last moment and recalled its Ambassador Deep Kumar Upadhyay. New Delhi reacted sharply and a report quoting official sources said “the three main political parties in Nepal cannot get their act together and find it easy to blame India”.
Many analysts believe that Prachanda buckled under Chinese pressure as Beijing felt that New Delhi was turning too proactive in the affairs of Nepal, jeopardizing its interests. It resulted in the 9-point deal between Prachanda and Oli, reached on May 4, which shrouds in mystery even today.
The brief respite for the Oli government after the deal appears to be again heading for a political storm. Latest reports quoted Prachanda to claim that he will form the National Government after Budget approval in Parliament under gentleman’s agreement.
Prachanda told a press meet at Bharatpur in Chitwan district that the CPN (UML) had agreed to hand over power to him. He said “there is no option but to form a consensus government for effective implementation of the Constitution…”
There is no indication however from the CPN (UML) side that Oli will step down. Nor is there any hint from the Nepali Congress and United Democratic Madeshi Front that they would join the National Government under Prachanda after the flip-flop by him less than a month ago and ditching them at the last moment. In such a scenario, the political situation in Nepal would worsen with the Madeshi Front and the newly constituted 27 party Sanghiya Samajwadi Forum of Madeshi parties, Tharus, Janjatis, Minorities and others deciding to step up their agitation for redrawing boundaries of federal provinces.
A meeting of the Sanghiya Forum in Kathmandu on Friday, May 27 decided to launch relay hunger strike under the Madeshi Morcha banner to press the government for implementing their 11-point charter; their demands include Constitutional amendment to redraw boundaries of Federal units and population based representation in the provincial and federal government.
The Prime Minister has invited the UDMF leaders for an all-party meeting but the Madhesi leaders rejected the invitation. “As Nepal government has not yet brought its clear opinion about the 11-point proposal submitted by the UDMF, it is clear that the government does not want to resolve the problem through talks,” the UDF leaders said in a letter to the PM.
Madeshi leaders also will have to put their house in order first as different voices on their demands would not augur well for them or for the people of Madesh, the Terai region bordering India.
The political atmosphere in Nepal is likely to hot up in June, which is also the time for budget to be passed in parliament. Madeshi leaders will step up their agitation is likely to materialize. The Oli government has mounted pressure on Prachanda by accelerating the pace of internal strife time cases (1996 -2005) against him. On his part, Prachanda is expected to pressurize Oli to step down in his favour as per the 9-point agreement. Without UCPN (Maoist) vote, the Oli government cannot get the Budget passed as it does not have the requisite numbers on its side.
The unfolding events are pregnant with several possibilities but many not bring to an end the prevailing turbulence.
-RC Saldi