Vietnam is perfectly justified to keep a hawkish eye all along its 2000 miles (3200 km) coast. It has to show its commitment to two strategically important island chains, Spratly archipelago and the Paracel islands which are claimed by China as well. Spartly is claimed by the Philippines, Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia also.
Though Vietnam has a long maritime past it didn’t have a significant naval presence till very recently. Most of its recent purchases are small missile-armed warships. In the month of August, Vietnam received the second of two Russian-made frigates ordered several years ago. Plans for naval upgrade include maritime patrol aircraft and six submarines.
Statistically speaking, Vietnam’s annual naval procurement budget has seen a 150 percent jump since 2008 to $276 million this year. It is expected to touch $400 million by 2015. However this budget is no match to China’s overall military-related spending which is estimated to be more than $160 billion in 2010.
Yet, Vietnam’s naval budget looks big because Vietnamese Navy is starting from a scratch. It is no body’s case much less of Hanoi, that Vietnam is bound to lock horns with China in the short to medium term or even long term. Its small missile-armed warships are no match to the well equipped Chinese navy and will not survive in case a war is imposed.
These missile vessels, however, serve the purpose of deterrent in the territorial stand-off with China. Also serve as a reminder to the Big Communist neighbour that in the war against the US backed Saigon, poorly equipped Ho Chi Minh’s forces outwitted the mighty enemy.
A sea route from the North to South (Vietnam) was used for delivering soldiers, medicines and arms to Viet Cong. Now the sea route is rechristened Ho Chi Minh Sea Trail. Put differently, when it comes to fighting Hanoi, Beijing must remember the lesson the Americans had learnt the hard way and are loath to forget still that bigger doesn’t necessarily mean better.
Today, in a role reversal, China is at logger heads with the only fellow Communist country in Asia –Pacific. And America, forgetting its bitter past, is siding with Vietnam. Not out of love for Hanoi but out of concern that China is laying claim to essentially all of the South China Sea which is a key global trading route. China is believed to be using for intelligence gathering the Paracel islands it had annexed in 1974.
Beijing is at its provocative best these days. In May, Chinese marine surveillance vessels cut off the exploration cables of an oil survey ship operated by state oil company PetroVietnam, inside Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone. An editorial in China’s Global Times, which is closely linked to the ruling Communist Party, warned in October (2011) countries with rival territorial claims to “prepare for the sounds of cannons”.
The countries thus put on notice are Asean nations, which have benefitted from the booming Chinese market and China’s aggressive marketing pitch. Significantly the warning coincided with a joint pledge by China and Vietnam to settle their disputes through “friendly consultations”. Such consultations should be consistent with the international law and practice. Undoubtedly, both nations are after the natural riches that are believed to lie underneath the bottom of the South China Sea. One estimate puts natural gas reserves alone at triple the entire domestic supply of the United States.
Dispute between China and Vietnam has the potential for quick flare-up because China’s laying claim to the maritime area which Vietnam considers as its own. Carl Thayer, professor at the University of New South Wales, says Vietnam is banking its entire future on its own piece of the sea. Exxon Mobil Corp discovered hydrocarbons in August off the coast of Danang city in central Vietnam. The American oil giant has a licence from the Vietnamese government to explore blocks 117, 118 and 119 off the Danang coast, falling within Vietnam’s 200-mile exclusive economic zone.
China is not happy going by the briefing of the foreign ministry spokesperson Hong Lei. At his regular briefing in Beijing early November he said: “We hope foreign companies do not get involved in disputed waters for oil and gas exploration and development. This position has been consistent”. He did not elaborate, nor single out Exxon Mobil by name.
China lays claim to almost the entire South China Sea, also claimed in part by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan. Enough reason for Southeast Asian neighbours of China to form a united front to protect their collective rights. It will help them to counter China’s sovereignty claims, which no longer should be seen, as some American political scientists like Edward Friedman appear to do, as mere posturing to signal to the US that China is a naval power.
