According to the IMF’s staff report released on Saturday, the Pakistani authorities and the Fund staff have estimated that Islamabad’s external debt would climb up to $57.417 billion by end 2009-10, $64.607 billion by 2010-11, $68.894 billion by 2011-12, $70.955 billion by 2012-13, $71.338 by 2013-14, $72.75 billion by 2014-15 and $74.161 billion by 2015-16.

The public and publicly guaranteed debt (including the IMF) would spike to $70.437 billion by 2015-16, while it was projected that the private sector debt from external avenues would remain at the level of $3.724 billion by 2015-16 compared to $3.470 billion by end 2009-10.

Pakistan’s total external debt would touch $57.417 billion by end 2009-10, out of which, public and publicly guaranteed external debt would touch $53.947 billion, while the private sector debt was projected to reach at $3.470 billion.

Pakistan’s medium- and long-term debt would stand at $44.102 billion during the end of the ongoing fiscal, out of which, multilateral creditors debt would be $24.686 billion, while the bilateral creditors’ debt would be $17.888 billion.

The debt amount from the ADB on Pakistan would stand at $11.627 billion, the World Bank $12.440 billion. The IMF’s loan amount will mount to $9.322 billion by end 2009-10.

However, the IMF report says the external debt sustainability analysis shows that the debt stock would remain moderate and the external debt service would be manageable.

The external debt stock would increase from 29.9 per cent of the GDP in 2008/09 to 35.5 per cent in 2010-11, before declining gradually to 32.5 per cent of the GDP by 2013-14. The debt service as a ratio of exports of goods and receipts is projected to increase from below 15 per cent to 20 per cent during the same period, reflecting in part, repayments of fund credit.