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Pakistan: Who will be the new spymaster… ?

The ISI chief has to work under the army chief; therefore, he has to be somebody who has a good working equation with the Big Boss. Since, the prime minister and the army chief have strained relations, will Gilani dare to have a new stand off with Gen Kayani.

Poreg view: With the Memogate rocking the foundations of the civil-military edifice and neither premier Gilani nor president Zardari having no special soft corner for Lt Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha, it is more or less certain that the present ISI chief, who is already on two extension, will have no good news when his present terms ends on March 18.  Now who will be the successor?

Officially, the frontrunners are Chief of General Staff Lt General Wahid Arshad, Corps Commander Karachi Lt-General Muhammad Zahirul Islam, and Corps Commander Peshawar Lt-General Khalid Rabbani. All three are to retire in 2014. It means whoever is picked up from amongst these three, he will have to work with Gen Kayani, the army chief, for at least one year since Kayani’s extended term ends in mid-2013.

Zahirul Islam appears to be a strong contender at the moment. His last assignment was with the ISI. As head of ISI’s internal wing he had dealt with counter-intelligence.  The file on appointment of ISI chief is generally initiated by the army headquarters. Prime Minister’s office also can suo-moto take up the job.

The ISI chief has to work under the army chief; therefore, he has to be somebody who has a good working equation with the Big Boss. Since, the prime minister and the army chief have strained relations, will Gilani dare to have a new stand off with Gen Kayani.  

Will he or will he not consult the army chief? Kamran Yousaf reported in the Express Tribune (Jan 19), even though the Pakistan prime minister has the authority to appoint the spymaster, it would be a rare move for the civilian government to take the decision without taking on board the military establishment.

There was bad blood between Gilani and Kayani even before the Memogate broke out. The scandal has also shown that the army and ISI don’t always keep their appointing authority namely the premier in the loop.

For instance, Pasha briefed his immediate boss about his meeting in London with Masood Ijaz, the businessman who had triggered the Memogate. He did not deem it fair and necessary to apprise Gilani. There is also this nugget that Pasha, according to Ijaz, toured the Gulf counties sounding them of the plans for a coup. ISI chief cannot be expected to brief his Prime Minister of his boss’s plans to unseat him. And, going by media reports, he did not.  

The exchanges army and Gilani had through Chinese dailies by way of interviews did not endear them to one another. Express Tribune says Gilani’s statements to a Chinese daily were met with a strong-worded reply by the army and the GHQ is reported have approached President Zardari to demand a retraction from the premier.

The sacking of defence secretary has created another irritant. The defence secretary is a retired general and is known close to the army chief. His crime was informing the court that the government has nominal control over the ISI. While this is an undisputed fact of Pakistani life, it provided the peg to the premier to sack the defence secretary unceremoniously. The aggrieved party has gone to the court with serious accusations, after confabulating with the army chief and made it a media event.

Historically, Pakistan prime ministers ignoring the army chief in matters of ISI appointment had to pay a price. Benazir Bhutto appointed Lt General (Retd) Shamsur Rahman Kallu as the DG ISI during her first tenure but the move only strained her equation with the army chief of the day, General Mirza Aslam Baig, who after retirement has taken to the think-tank route to remain relevant.

Similarly, Nawaz Sharif’s choice for the job was Lt General (Retd) Ziauddin Butt who could not save him from Musharraf coup in October 1999.

Suffice to say the appointment of a new Director General of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence agency has acquired all the ingredients of T20 cricket match between Pakistan and India.

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