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Myanmar At Cross Roads
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a Burmese frigate in the Bay of Bengal
A critique of the political situation, the Junta plans and planks and relations with China and India
Myanmar is at crossroads. General elections are slated for later this year. It is not clear whether the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) would be ready to handover power to the ‘winner’ in the elections. The junta claims that without their presence in power, Myanmar will disintegrate.
Significantly however, the military junta has opened room for engagement with the West as well as Aung Sang Suu Kyi. Though there is no free media, it has allowed Western TV channels and opening up of malls and fast food joints. The Obama administration is no longer insisting on sanctions route. It is also trying out a different tack: engagement with the junta -- spearheaded by Senator Jim Webb.
The game changer in the elections could be the anti-Chinese riots that had rocked Kokang area of the Shan State in August, 2009, when thousands of Chinese traders, who had illegally settled there, had to flee to Yunnan following attacks on them. These attacks and the ‘neutrality’ of Myanmar Army during the riots were a rude shock to Beijing.
The forthcoming elections are taking place under a new constitution which was ‘approved’ in a referendum held in May 2008. State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) proposed the new statute in February 2008, which critics see as the junta way of giving permanency to the army’s hold on structures of governance. The elections are a part of junta strongman Than Shwe's seven-step "road map to democracy".
SPDC has not answered opposition calls to amend the constitution or state clearly how the electoral process will be managed and the terms that new political parties can organise. The National League for Democracy (NLD) has set a number of conditions for participating in the poll. These include changes in the statute to reduce the army's influence, polling under international supervision and release of Suu Kyi and all other political prisoners.
Senior General Than Shwe has pledged to release political prisoners before the ballot but has not stated when this would occur.
The new Democratic Party, established by the daughters of two former Prime Ministers, U Nu and Ba Swe, is aiming to take part in the election. Than Than Nu is the General Secretary of the party.
Another new party is being formed comprising members of a ceasefire group and a party that won seats in the 1990 elections. The New Mon State Party (NMSP) and Mon National Democratic Front (MNDF), who make up the new party, are yet to announce their participation in the elections.
The junta wants ethnic groups to take part in the election. The local militias are told to be disarmed and join a government-run border patrol force or be wiped out, according to activists in Shan State.
New constitution creates a bicameral parliament besides state and local legislatures. Though at least 25 percent of the total seats are reserved for the military personnel, some constitutional provisions appear to provide, at least on paper, significant opportunities for people’s participation in government. Section 96, for instance, says the legislature has the power to regulate commerce, taxation, labour organizations and civil and criminal laws. The statute is silent on ‘veto power’ to President. It merely says the President can comment on laws and can even suggest amendments to bills presented to him for approval.
The Commander-in-Chief of the military retains significant powers. He can declare a state of emergency. He can take over full executive, legislative, and judicial powers and can suspend fundamental rights. The constitution is silent on axing the Commander-in-Chief. But it says there can only be three candidates in a Presidential election – two nominated by Parliament - each house of the bicameral legislature selects one candidate, and the military selects a third.
There are several limitations on who can run for president. Persons who are serving time in prison cannot be candidates, which disqualify many political dissidents. Also, Buddhist monks are not allowed to run for elections. Also barred are persons, whose parent, spouse or child owe allegiance to a foreign power, are subject to a foreign power or have citizenship in a foreign country.
On the occasion of Myanmar's 62nd Anniversary Independence Day which falls on Jan 4, Than Swe said, plans are underway to hold elections in a systematic way this year. In that regard, the entire people have to make correct choice then. "The state's seven-step roadmap, designed for the emergence of a peaceful, modern and developed nation is the sole process for transition to democracy," Than Shwe said. He pointed out that "many projects are ongoing simultaneously for ensuring equitable development of all parts of the union and improving the living conditions of the people", adding that " pursuing the national goal of building a peaceful, modern and developed nation with might and main is in fact laying substantial foundation for a prosperous future of the nation".
RELATIONS WITH CHINA
Beijing has been a staunch supporter of the military junta. Myanmar gave China assurance over an important crude oil pipeline and promised to maintain stability along the border after unrest in August pushed thousands of refugees into Yunnan. The assurance was given to Chinese Vice-President Xi Jinping.
China's overriding concern is a stable Myanmar to give its landlocked southwest access to the Indian Ocean, as well as oil, gas and timber to feed its booming economy. Xi, seen as frontrunner to succeed President Hu Jintao, assured Myanmar of China's continuing support.
In August, Myanmar's military overwhelmed and disarmed the Kokang group, the weakest of many ethnic armies which, in some cases, have based themselves for decades along the Chinese border. That triggered an exodus of more than 37,000 refugees across the border and strained ties with China. Myanmar's army has maintained a sizable presence over the past few months in Shan State, where rebel militias are braced for an offensive that could turn into a protracted conflict, creating another refugee crisis for China.
STATELESS INDIANS
Indian diaspora in Myanmar is about 2 percent (945,000) of Burmese’s population. The last census held in 1983 reported approximately 428,000 people of Indian origin (PIO). Various research studies have indicated that Indian diaspora is not larger than one million. However, the L M Singhvi Committee Report projected Indian population at over 2.5 million. The numbers depleted significantly between 1950 and 1970. Firstly sizable Indian diaspora returned home. Secondly, many moved out to countries like Thailand. Ne Win government’s nationalization spree forced out some 200,000 Indians by 1972. Their wholesale and retail businesses were taken over without compensation. They were given 175 kyat each to return to India.
Indians started settling down in Myanmar as early as 1852 and the present residents have been here for more than four generations. Historically, like other parts of Southeast Asia, Myanmar came under Indian cultural influence. The spread of Buddhism from India and through Ceylon profoundly influenced all aspects of Burmese life.
Indian community flourished in Myanmar, dominating the civil services, education and trade under British rule. After independence in 1948, prime minister U Nu's land reforms resulted in the Indians losing their holdings and signaled the first exodus to India. The exodus became a flood in a manner of speaking after General Ne Win came to power in the 1962 coup.
Up to the 1960s, India was Myanmar’s major trading partner of Myanmar. The marginalisation of the Indian community was directly related to the policies pursued by successive governments. The radical land reforms hit the members of the Chettiar community, who complained about not receiving compensation. Even in cases where compensation was paid, it was inadequate.
As many as 8,500 Indians were given Burmese citizenship after years of dilly-dallying. Some I, 00,000 applications are awaiting approval. Even after four generations, many Indian families in Burma don’t have documentation required by the 1982 Burmese citizenship law and are therefore stateless.
ETHNIC DIVERSITY & INDIAN DIASPORA
With more than 100 ethnic groups, languages, and dialects, no other country in Southeast Asia displays such diversity. Burma has a population of 56 million, the majority Burman number nearly two-thirds. The largest minorities are Shan – 9 per cent and Karen – 7 per cent. Other indigenous minority groups include Mon, Rakhine, Chin, Kachin, Kayan, Danu, Akha, Kokang, Lahu, Rohingyia, Tavoyan, and Wa peoples. They constitute nearly 5 per cent of the population.
The Chinese and the Indians who migrated to Burma during the British rule are considered to be alien minorities, unlike the ethnic groups, who are treated as indigenous minorities. The post-independence history of Burma is full of struggles by the minority groups for autonomy and self-determination.
The problems of the alien minority groups – Indians and the Chinese – for citizenship and fair treatment have not attracted the deserved attention. The Chinese have one advantage, compared to the Indians, though their number is less than that of the Indians; they have far greater economic clout and they own a disproportionate share of the Burmese economy. Due to the good relations between the PRC and the military junta, the latter is sensitive to the demands and requests of Beijing.
The Indians are not a homogenous group in Myanmar. In terms of religion, there are Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, and Christians. In terms of language, there are Bengalis, Hindi-speaking people from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, Tamil, Telugu, and Malayalam-speaking people and Punjabi-speaking people. Those who migrated belonged to various castes and were also economically stratified, the rich Chettiars, the poor Tamils, and Hindi-speaking people, and the English educated middle classes.
Commenting on the Indians in Myanmar Thet Lwin, who is a member of the Myanmar Academy of Arts and Science, says, “Indian presence in Burma is a historical legacy; a section of Myanmar's Indian community is engaged in business while a majority is in agriculture or in menial labour … The younger generation through education is moving fast towards integration into the Myanmar society. The rise of India has a profound impact on the image-building attempts of overseas Indians. For Myanmar Buddhists, India is the place for pilgrimage, and for those of Indian stock, it is the country of their forefathers. Culture and religious links could be strengthened by promoting tourism.”
INDIAN INSURGENT GROUPS
Myanmar has began making attempts to address India's concern after repeated requests and have initiated counter-insurgency operations against Indian Insurgent Groups (IIGs) including ULFA operating from its soil. India has told Myanmar that it has information of ULFA ‘C-in-C’ Paresh Barua hiding in Myanmar’s Kachin province.
Yangon has assured New Delhi to intensify its operations to track down the insurgent leader. It has also decided to launch coordinated operations to flush out other Northeast insurgents operating from Myanmarese soil. India wants Myanmar to allow ‘police liaison posts’ at the border for constant information sharing between the two countries over cross-border movement of insurgents and smugglers. The posts will provide a platform of daily interaction and joint interrogation of the arrested.
The Myanmar Army recently launched limited operation against ULFA and National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) faction in Saigang division. Myanmar troops also exchanged fire with the cadres of Khaplang faction. The area where operation has been launched also houses camps of Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO). Some insurgents from ULFA and KLO fled from Chittagong to the jungles of Myanmar fearing operation by Dhaka. Nearly 3,000 insurgents from different rebel outfits from Northeast have set up camps inside Saigang forests. Besides ULFA, NSCN (Khaplang), and PLA and UNLF from Manipur too have their camps within Myanmar territory.
While ULFA and NSCN (K) have camps in the Kachin province bordering China, the other outfits have been operating from areas bordering India. There are also several IIG camps in Shan and Chin States. The NSCN (IM) takes the help of the Karen National Union (KNU) for cross border smuggling of small arms from South East Asia and China’s Yunnan. These are shipped to the North east via the Naf River (in the Bangladesh-Myanmar border) and through Chittagong port. Chinese arms also enter India’s northeast directly through Myanmar.
A 15-member Myanmar delegation led by Brig. Gen. Tin Maung Ohn visited India in November 2009 and discussed issues related to counter-terror cooperation. The two countries have an intelligence sharing mechanism in place but it is not enough to stop insurgent activity.
There are different kinds of IIG camps in Myanmar -transit camps, permanent camps and training camps. Some camps enjoy sanction of local authority. Insurgent groups also take advantage of the terrain.
India shares a 1,645-km border with Myanmar.
India’s north-east outfits and Burmese rebel groups closed ranks and floated Indo-Burmese Revolutionary Front (IBRF) in 1989. Initially, the IBRF was made up of NSCN-K, ULFA, United Liberation Front of Bodoland, Kuki National Front (KNF) (all from India) and Chin National Front (Myanmar). Paresh Baruah is reported to have paid a substantial sum of money to the Kachins for the first large consignment of weapons from Thailand. In 1986, ULFA established contacts with the then undivided NSCN and the Kachin Independent Army (KIA) for training and arms. KIA is traditionally providing support to all the N-E insurgent outfits.
Manerplaw in Lower Myanmar on the border with Thailand is the stronghold of the Karen National Union which, in 1993, is reported to have delivered, from the Cambodian arms market, AK-56 rifles, machine guns, rocket-propelled guns and anti-tank rifles to the ULFA. The arms dealer as identified as an ethnic Kachin and wife of Manipuri rebel Themba Song, who had been killed. The Communist Party of Burma is known to have gifted some weapons, mainly Chinese-made M10 rifles, to ULFA and Naga terrorist organisations.
Arrested ULFA cadres have claimed that Baruah used to smuggle heroin, procured in Myanmar into Assam as part of "a personal operation". According to them, ULFA terrorists also crossed into China through Bhutan and established contact with the Chinese Army.
Manipur’s United National Liberation Front (UNLF) cadres received military training in the areas controlled by National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang group) in Upper Myanmar bordering Nagaland and Myanmar till the mid-nineties. But its training camps have come down in recent years and UNLF cadres are now mainly receiving training in Manipur’s southern hilly areas. In the early eighties Manipur’s PREPAK used to receive weapons and training in exchange for hard cash from the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) of Myanmar.
CONSTRAINTS
Logistics and hostile terrain where camps of insurgent groups are based are a constraint for smooth anti-terror operations along India-Myanmar border. Another limiting factor is Myanmar government's writ does not extend over the entire country, particularly along the border regions.
-Communication infrastructure on both sides is poor. Particularly on the Myanmar side it is abysmal. This slows land operations. Good air support is a must therefore but Myanmar has very limited air support elements. The area is poorly developed and ineffectively administered. Forces operating in the region have to be totally supported from hinterland.
In December 2001, 192 UNLF cadres, including the outfit’s chairman Sana Yaima, were arrested by the Myanmarese Army, but all of them were set free by February 2002. UNLF today supplies arms and ammunition to various militant groups in the Northeast with active connivance of section of Myanmar’s security forces.
-As the tribal population on both sides of the border, particularly in Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram, are ethnically similar, there is close social and cultural affinity between them. Myanmar has not been able to exercise sovereignty over this region due to a number of powerful ethnic insurgent groups, which have been waging war against Yangon for over four decades. That was how the Naga insurgents, and with their blessing the Assamese insurgent groups had been finding refuge on the Myanmar side.
Any military operations in this region must be undertaken along with a social uplift programme. Otherwise, it would be only a police action. It is doubtful whether the military regime is ready for such social action.
-India has been engaged in peace parleys with both factions of NSCN for sometime now. Carrying out joint or closely coordinated operations in areas of their proximity without jeopardizing the peace talks will require a lot of finesse
-The Myanmar army is poorly administered. If they are to render meaningful support in the long term, it will have to be upgraded.
-The area of operations is astride the routes of flourishing drug trade and traffic as well as arms traffic. Vested interests, including those from the Burmese Army and criminal elements involved in such traffic will also have to be tackled.
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