Policy Research Group   - Strategic Insight: Nepal: The Clock Ticks Away                                                            

Nepal: The Clock Ticks Away
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editor on 06 April, 2010 08:55:00
 
By Bhasham Kasturi
The meeting between the leaders of the Unified CPN (M) and the National Congress
[NC] after the passing of the latter’s President G.P. Koirala, is significant
for it signaled a renewed effort on the part of both parties to find what they
are now calling a “package solution” to the present crisis. But Baburam
Bhattrai’s warning of the country sliding into a political vortex if the
coalition government is not replaced within the next two months, lends one to
believe that the package solution is more cosmetic than having any substance.
The key date before everyone at this stage is May 28, 2010 when the constitution
is supposed to come into force. Whether all political parties will reach a
consensus on that is a moot question. And President Ram Baran Yadav has
expressed his apprehensions about Nepal being able to meet the May 28 deadline,
given the inability of the political parties do reach an agreement.
So where does that leave the UCPN (M) and NC? The leaders of both parties claim
that they have arrived at an understanding on giving top priority to
constitution-drafting and peace process. They also claim to have agreed on a
package solution on issues including the Maoist demand for a national unity
government led by them and the NC’s demand for dismantling of the Youth
Communist League’s paramilitary structure and return of properties seized by
the Maoists during the insurgency. There seems to be much that has happened
during the course of this bilateral meeting, but little prospects of any real
solutions exist, given the present stand of the UCPN (M).
But more of that in a moment! At the core of the discussion between the two
parties is to see whether they can find middle ground on some of the contentious
issues, such as addressing issues of mutual concern. For instance, the NC would
like the Maoists to take on board the CPN (UML) also on the issue of who is
going to lead the next government. According to sources, the NC also stressed
that integration of Maoist combatants should be carried out before the
promulgation of the constitution.
This takes us to the latest remarks made by the UCPN (M) vice chairman Dr
Baburam Bhattarai. He said that Nepal will plunge into a dangerous vortex if the
current coalition continues for two more months to understand the basic position
of the party. Bhattarai added in the same breadth that the incumbent
dispensation must be replaced by a new government led by Maoists to tide over
the current political imbroglio. Please read his carefully. They make it amply
clear that the Maoists must head the new government.
He is quoted as having said: “It is simple mandatory to move ahead for the
accomplishment of peace and a new constitution through broader political
consensus. In this regard, the formation of a new nation government headed by
the Maoists is imperative.”
But if the Maoists are to lead the new government they must have the mandate for
it. Therefore, the statement made by a senior leader of the CPN (UML), K.P.
Sharma Oli recently that if the Maoists want to lead the government, it should
produce a majority in the parliament to form a new government. K. P. Sharma Oli,
who is known as a critic of the Maoists, said if the Maoists show their strength
through democratic procedures then leadership of the Government would make
sense. The basic message is clear. The Maoists who are keen to capture state
power by force or coercion should be warned that the democratic route is the
best route to take. Will the Maoists bite?
With all this hectic political parleying, it is little wonder that Prime
Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal has also felt the necessity to begin consultation
process with leaders of various political parties and experts on the current
political situation. Nepal met with chairman of CPN (United) Chandra Dev Joshi,
and General Secretary Sunil Manandhar and discussed the political situation,
integration and management of the Maoist army and constitution drafting with
them.
Nepal has also met with the Dalit Janajati Party Chairman, Bishendra Paswan,
Nepal Party chairman, Keshav Man Shrestha, Nepal Pariwar Dal chairman, Ek Nath
Dhakal and Rashtriya Janmukti Party chairman MS Thapa. Therefore, pressure is
clearly building up on everybody to say and do things which are going to begin
the countdown to the May 28 deadline. So where do we go from here?
With just ten weeks to go for completion of the constitution-drafting process
and lots of work remaining, political parties agree, albeit in hushed tones,
that it’s impossible to meet the deadline. Let us therefore make some
predictions in the light of these developments. First, if the May 28 deadline is
missed, will the country or its political leaders have a problem? Unlikely!
Second, if the political parties do not reach an agreement now on the two core
issues, i.e., constitution making and the peace process will it create problems
in the long run? Yes. There has to be an agreement now, in one form or the other
or the future of democracy in Nepal will be in peril.
Third and finally, all political parties have to agree on one thing; that is
democracy. A democratic Nepal is much better than a militarized Nepal. In that
sense, the urgency to retain sanity on all matters constitutional is not only
essential but imperative for Nepal. Are we running out of time? Yes we are, the
moment is here to grasp and all of Nepal must grasp it.