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Pakistan's Water Fever
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Sapara Lake in Skardu district
Islamabad’s accusations against India with regards to water availability from rivers originating in Kashmir, and the India's 'theft' of the resource and sanctioning of large-scale projects detrimental to the lower-riparian nation’s interests, have been frequently voiced by Pakistani politicians. With equal regularity, the Pakistani media, both the liberal and right wing, have sensationalized the issue in a bid to up the anti-India fervour and cover for the inadequacies of the government - at both the federal and provincial level. Relations between India and Pakistan have been historically defined through the need to quash Pakistani sponsored cross-border terrorism and the Kashmir dispute. However, the issue of water is gaining prominence in Pakistan, so much so, that Pakistani based terrorist groups and personalities such as the LeT and Hafiz Saeed often link the issue of water to Kashmir’s liberation – calling for jihad to be waged against India for its acts of ‘water terrorism’. In addition, Pakistan’s military has been accusing India of violating the Indus Water Treaty post the 2008 Mumbai attacks, in what could be an attempt to divert attention from the role of its personnel in acts of terrorism. Meanwhile, given that water is a finite resource and that Pakistan’s water demand is expected to outstrip supply by approximately 100BCM by 2025, the issue is likely to becoming increasingly important in the near future.
Current Scenario
Over the years, the government of Pakistan has embarked on a hostile PR campaign to convince its people and the international community that the cause of its water woes can be traced across the border to Indian Kashmir. As per Islamabad’s accusations, New Delhi is trying to make Pakistan into a barren country, along the lines of “Somalia and Ethiopia”, while destroying its agricultural based economy, through the construction of 62 dams and diversion projects along the Indus River. In addition, India is accused of constructing the Baglihar dam along the Chenab River, in what is being described as a violation of the Indus Water Treaty. Furthermore, Islamabad has leveled accusations that India is constructing a 32km diversion tunnel which will allow it to ‘steal’ up to 45% of the Sindh River’s water.
Pakistan claims that New Delhi’s violations of the Indus Water Treaty amount to acts of terrorism, with several politicians partaking in anti-India rhetoric. Majid Nizami, the chief editor of Nawa-i-Waqt and an outspoken and politically connected individual, has often called for a nuclear war with India to settle the water dispute. Nizami’s close proximity to the political leadership, including PM Gillani, makes him an important individual, more so as he commands enormous respect from the public. Similarly, the PM of AJK, Raja Farooq Haider, has often made statements to the effect that Kashmir’s water is essential for the development of Pakistan, and that if required, Pakistan should engage India in a war to stop New Delhi’s aggressive posture. While such statements are undoubtedly a cause for concern, there is a possibility that they are becoming increasingly frequent as a result of the Kashmir issue being arguably sidelined on both sides of the border. In addition, given that Pakistan is of the firm belief that Kashmir is the ‘jugular’ vein of the country; any perceived let-up in the issue could be detrimental to the country’s sense of identity and unity.
The bi-lateral ‘water dispute’ must be viewed in the context of Pakistan’s internal water crises. The latest controversy surrounds Punjab provinces proposal to construct a 44MW hydro-power facility along the Chashma-Jhelum link canal. The Sindh government has opposed the decision, stating that it is detrimental to their interests and will exacerbate the current water shortages. However, Punjab’s water committee has argued that the province needs the water to meet the 25 million tonnes wheat target, and that unless an additional 1.49 MAF is released from the Indus River, the country will face a deficit of 5 million tonnes of wheat. Countering these claims, representatives from Sindh province have accused Punjab of over utilizing their share of 3.1 MAF by more than 0.51 MAF. As per the 1991 Indus Water Treaty, Punjab currently gets the largest share of the country’s water, at approximately 77%, with Sindh, NWFP and Balochistan receiving 14%, 5% and 4% respectively. The latest controversy has assumed significant proportions and is being addressed by the Inter-provincial committee, with the collaboration of the IRSA and WAPDA. For the most part, the inter-provincial disagreements have been downplayed, with the discrepancies in water availability put down to India’s diversion projects rather than Punjab provinces over extraction/utilisation and diversion for agricultural purposes.
The inter-provincial disputes over water have been occurring for several years. Sindh officials often accuse their Punjab counterparts of stealing water and denying their province of valuable agricultural resources. In addition, Sindh officials are of the belief that the federal government favours the needs of Punjab province as it forms the largest electoral base. While the internal water disputes receive media coverage, they are primarily covered by the Sindhi press and are rather diluted in nature. The Punjabi or Urdu press focuses more on bi-lateral water issues, in what could be viewed as an attempt to cover or divert attention from the country’s internal disagreements. The constant hostilities against India have been successful in not only diverting attention from the inter-provincial disputes, but also from the inadequate state of the country’s water infrastructure. It is important to note that even if Pakistan had sufficient water availability to meet demand, it would, in all probability be unable to efficiently distribute water as a result of poor infrastructure, corruption, pollution and inadequate water storage facilities amongst others. This point is further reinforced by the wide-gap in water resource investments, with less than 0.2% of GDP allocated to supply and sanitation projects, while the military budget stands at 47 times the amount.
The anti-India propaganda voiced by the Pakistani government, its leadership and the military has in every sense been an example of the political strategy to ‘wag the dog’. The decisions made in Islamabad and Rawalpindi is a purposeful attempt to divert attention from issues of greater importance (the internal water crises), to those which are less significant or have less credibility. In such an event, the less important issue, which in this case is India’s apparent water theft, is thrown into the limelight, diverting attention from the original, more important matters. Apart from the country’s inadequate water infrastructure, there has been a general tendency to overlook the issue of climate change and its impact on the Indus River and the source region of the western Himalayas. Pakistan’s per capita water availability has declined from 5000m³ in the early 1950s to less than 1500m³ in 2008. Experts believe that the country’s per capita water availability will decline to less than 1000m³ by 2035- although some projections place the year at 2020 if not sooner. The strategy of blaming India for the country’s water woes is an attempt to compensate for the government’s poor track record of addressing matters pertaining to water resources.
According to World Bank estimates, Pakistan’s Indus River will be negatively impacted by climate change, with incidents of flooding in the Indus basin expected to increase over the next 50 years. In addition, estimates suggest that there will be a 30-40% reduction in river flow over the next 100 years due to natural climatic and environmental changes. While these points have been touched upon by Pakistan’s Indus Water commissioner, Syed Jamaat Ali Shah, they have received little media coverage. In addition, Shah has gone on to say that no country can face severe drought as a result of dam constructions and that India is not constructing the widely reported 62 dams along rivers originating in Kashmir. Furthermore, Shah has admitted that climatic changes are the primary reason behind Pakistan’s water crises – a fact which is again not covered by the media.
Pakistan is facing a water crisis which stands to worsen as a result of several contributing factors. Climate change, inter-provincial disputes, poor infrastructure and lack of governance are just a handful of the reasons, yet more often that not, the blame is squarely placed on India. It would seem that Islamabad’s strategy is an attempt to divert the public’s attention from their failings, not only under the current government, but by previous ones as well. In addition, the water issue has been closely linked to the Kashmir dispute in an attempt to heighten public sentiment over two issues which form an integral part of Pakistan’s identity – Kashmir and water. Ultimately, Pakistan’s politicians and military leadership will not hesitate to indulge in anti-India rhetoric vis-à-vis the water issue or other matters as it enhances their mass popularity and lends them credibility in a country where economic and social progress is minimal. In addition, the hugely unpopular war in the tribal areas and the surge in terrorist activity has resulted in more of a reason to divert the country’s attention from the poor state of internal affairs. Furthermore, given than 40-55 million people or a quarter to a third of the population does not have access to safe drinking water, the issue of water security takes on more significant proportions.
FUTURE SCENARIO
With the general perception being that the government’s war on terror is being dictated by Washington, Islamabad will need to show its electorate that it is a sovereign nation capable of looking after their interests. In effect, India has and will continue to be made the scapegoat given that several bi-lateral issues tend to evoke a strong sense of nationalism and anti-India sentiment. The water issue is no different. Pakistan is likely to insist that water and Kashmir top the agenda of the upcoming bi-lateral foreign secretary talks. While Kashmir is a dispute to which both sides agree needs to be resolved, the water dispute appears to be based primarily on circumstantial evidence which carries little to no credibility and, is largely internal or as a result of climate change. Yet, the issue is viewed as a good way to gain political mileage and legitimacy amongst the ruling elite, and as such, will continue to dominate Indo-Pak relations in the future. New Delhi could attempt to silence Islamabad’s accusations by inviting a delegation from Pakistan to inspect Indian sites, although this would be a strategically sensitive issue. Alternatively, there is a possibility of international inspectors corroborating India’ stance, although given Pakistan’s track record, a pro-India verdict is likely to be viewed as a conspiracy against Pakistan. Islamabad must be presented with evidence that climatic factors and poor governance within their country are to blame for the water crisis. Until such time however, the water issue is likely to be blamed squarely on India.
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