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Sri Lanka elects new Parliamen on April 8

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image President Rajapaksa

While it is not difficult to predict with a degree of certainty as to who will be the winner in Sri Lanka's general election, it is hazardous to crystal gaze the direction of the country's policies, says the author

Crystal gazing ahead of any election that too virtually on the eve of ballot is a hazardous game. It is certainly so in Sri Lanka, where ethnic divide refuses to disappear and both majority and minority communities suffer from a persecution complex. Neither President Mahinda Rajapaksa, the human rights champion, nor his party, the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) has utilised the past couple of months to put balm to the wounds – ethnic or otherwise. May be there is no need for them to go that extra mile since the parliamentary election is also taking place under the shadow of slain Tigers.  

No USP has a long shelf-live. Whether in economics or in politics, this maxim has always come true haunting the blind practioners. So much so, it did not come as a surprise when Mahinda Rajapaksa landed in Jaffna a week ahead of the ballot and sought the Tamil vote.  ‘Trust me as I trust you’, he said. Whatever his critics may say, it is a grand gesture. And has huge symbolism.

First because it was his second visit to the minority heart land since the end of a three-decade civil war in May last. Second because the Tamil voter still wants to be convinced that Mahinda will herald an end to the era of discrimination.  Third and most important, the Tamil vote is crucial to the quest for a two-third majority in parliament to make the second –six-year term really path breaking for Mahinda Rajapaksa.

To what extent the President was able to sway the Jaffna voters will be known soon. But going by the crowds at his rally, it is clear that there are many sceptics amongst his Tamil interlocutors. The government has not helped matters in the past few weeks.

No this reference is not to the Fonseka troubles. The general’s wounds are self-inflicted in a manner of speaking. And he cannot expect any thing other than what has come his way given the peculiar contours of democracy that is in practice in the island nation under the long shadow of emergency. The general himself contributed no less to furthering the system and today he cannot pretend to be an innocent, disenchanted, bystander, who did what he did as a clog in the wheel.

Will the Fonseka trauma influence the poll outcome? It may. There will not be many who would like to take another risk – the firs risk was going with Pirabhakarans years ago.

For the average ethnic voter, the pressing need is to some how find an early end to economic deprivation. Prudent economic management took a back seat during the long years of Wanni War. Rural areas and the Tamil belt suffered as a result. More than peace and shelter, people are looking for a manna to end the constant struggle for survival every day.

Rural Lankans, like the farmers of Vidarbha in India, are looking for a short fuse to end their lives. The way two mothers drowned their children in local rivers early March demonstrates the gravity of the situation.

The reference to these deaths by forced drowning is not to observe that the Mahinda government has been insensitive.  Whatever be their brand of politics, Rajapaksa brothers cannot be faulted on their welfare economics. Some 1.6 million people are surviving on ‘Samurdhi’ which gives them a monthly dole.

There are many more families who deserve the dole but are denied, as Media Minister Lakshman Yapa Abeywardena has admitted readily the other day. Some 15 percent of Sri Lanka population lives below the official poverty line of Rs. 3,087 rupees a month. Frankly, there are limitations to any populism. More so when dealing with the modern day Washington- based Shylocks for whom growth rates stem from higher dosage of taxation.

For economic nirvana and for political salvation, open society and transparent governance are the two basic pre-requisites. Both appear to carry a premium as of now though President Rajapaksa keeps harping on ‘opportunity to the people (of the North) to address issues by themselves’.

Devolution based on Indian model has become a bad word in the Lanka lexicon. Some model, any model for that matter, should be a starting point. To get rid of the ethnic thinking that resulted from a political culture built on mistrust of diversity and disagreement.  The gene should not remain bottled.  If Indian Panchayat is bad, and if there are few takers for the 6th schedule model, there is the Sinhala ‘Jana Sabha’ concept that can be pump primed to meet the demands.  
No decision is also a decision, said famously a former Indian prime minister. His dithering and procrastination became a cartoonist delight and punching bag for his rivals. And to his dismay, he found himself wrapped and consigned to history by the enigma of his own USP.

While on Indian politicians, it is not out of place to refer to another politician, Babu Jagjivanram. His daughter, Meira Kumar is the presiding officer of Indian parliament these days.

During his illustrious public career, Jagjivanram handled a wide variety of ministries from defence to railways and agriculture with great aplomb. The kitchen at his official residence in Delhi was open 24 hours and seven days a week. And anyone from his native Bihar was welcome, always. And was served food with affection.  

There is another facet to the life of Babuji, as Jagjivanram was addressed. He had forgotten to pay his income tax. For years till some one brought it up to score a point at the height of Indira Gandhi’s fight with her detractors in the Congress party.

Forgetfulness or selective amnesia is not exclusive privilege of Indian politicians. It is a trait common to political class across south Asia. Not to journalists. For them, not bank balance but memory is the only tangible asset. Whether one is a cub reporter or a leader writer, one has to remain a walking encyclopaedia of men and matters of their domain. To get that ‘wow’ kick to the dismay of their families. It is not that there are no journalist sharks. But it is easy to spot them, unlike in the case of wolves in political garb, because they are pariahs in the journalistic fraternity. Also because they mostly live on extended levers of government.

I don’t know why the Ministry of Mass Media of the government of Sri Lanka wants to know the assets of journalists- big and small. Like a Remington or a Halder in the past, the desktop or laptop today is the asset of the company. Like the pen and the ink pot in the age old past, the Reynolds these days is an asset of the company or a ‘free gift’ thrown at the presser only to be grabbed by the sub, who cannot see his own under the spiked heap. This Ministry diktat shows the great heights a bureaucracy can reach in a bid to insure a post-retirement sinecure

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