Policy Research Group   - Strategic Insight: Kyrgyzstan: Power Plays 

Kyrgyzstan: Power Plays
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. on 25 April, 2010 06:45:00
 
By Raj Rajneesh      The violent regime change in Kyrgyzstan in April 2010 has
its roots in internal and external conflicts that required a fine balancing for
stability.  Ousted President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who had swept to power in `Tulip
Revolution’ (March 2005), ending the post-Soviet era President Akayev’s
rule,   has obviously alienated all the stake holders.
`Colour’ revolutions starting with Georgia, Ukraine and then Kyrgyzstan had
given a fillip to the Bush Administration to engineer similar pro-Western
leadership change in other former Soviet states.  This enraged Moscow which took
counter steps to bring back pro-Russian regimes.  Russia succeeded in Ukraine
and now in Kyrgyzstan, while Georgia remains abandoned by the Americans.
New President of Kyrgyzstan Roza Isakovna Otunbayeva was one of the key leaders,
along with ousted President Bakiyev, of the Tulip Revolution.  She served for a
few months as Foreign Minister in his interim government but soon fell out with
him as he became authoritarian, and encouraged nepotism and corruption.  His son
Maksim Bakiyev was made head of the Agency in charge of all foreign grants and
credits, thus effectively controlling the State finances.  Bakiyev’s brother,
Zhanybek, was appointed chief of President’s Guards and thus in charge of all
security forces.
Otunbayeva played a key role in Nov. 2006 that successfully pressed for a new
democratic constitution.  She was elected to Parliament in Dec. 2007 on the list
of the opposition Social Democratic Party.  She headed parliamentary group of
the party since Oct. 2009.  In the Akayev regime, she was both Foreign Minister
and Deputy Prime Minister.  She became the first Kyrgyz Ambassador to the US and
Canada.  During 1998-2001, she also served as the first Kyrgyz Ambassador to the
UK.  Her career shows a pro-Western orientation but the inability of Bakiyev to
share the spoils led to dissolution of the coalition. She joined politics soon
after returning home in late 2004 and floated a new party with other opposition
parliamentarians which heralded the latest revolution.
Kyrgyzstan is a poor country with deep regional divisions. It lacks stable
institutional development.   People are divided along tribal affiliations. 
Progress of the country, therefore, depended on careful balancing of powers that
have a stake in the country.  Russia has a natural interest in Kyrgyzstan as
successor state of the former Soviet Union and resented any extraneous power
play.  About 13% of the five million population are Russians who own landed
properties in capital Bishkek and adjoining areas.  Russia also maintains a
military base.
The Americans challenged the Russian supremacy in the region and the NATO almost
landed on the western border of Russia.  Moscow initially did not object to
American surge into the region to fight the Taliban/Al Qaida in Afghanistan
after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US as there were serious fears of the
spill over of the terror into Russia itself and it was in no position to prevent
it.  Russia was itself victim of Chechen militancy and Central Asia,
particularly Uzbekistan, was under the grip fundamentalist threat.  Russia,
however, soon realised that Americans have a different agenda and planned to
stay put to organise `colour’ revolutions to set up pro-US governments.
In the meantime, a third power entered the scene quietly trying to create an
economic niche without overtly showing any signs of challenging either Russians
or the US, but gained enormous influence through liberal economic aid. This is
China, which shares 1100 km long border with Kyrgyzstan along the restive
north-western province of Xinxiang which witnessed unprecedented ethnic violence
in July 2009.  There are about 30,000 Chinese living in Kyrgyzstan though
unofficial estimates put the number at 50,000.
Without being equipped to stand on its own, success of any regime in Kyrgyzstan
depends on creating a fine balance of the interests of these three countries and
thereby extracting its pound of flesh.  Bakiyev had for a while successfully
played Moscow and Washington against each other.  After extracting $ 2 billion
aid package from Moscow, he got the Americans vacate the Air Base at Manas.  The
base was so crucial for the fight against Taliban and Afghanistan that the Obama
administration was able to regain the rights to use the Manas by agreeing to a
larger fee, $ 60 million, annually, in addition to inflated payments for using
other services like fuel and supplies.  Much of this unaccounted largesse flowed
into the coffers of Bakiyev’s family and friends. The Bakiyev government was
in the midst of negotiations with the Obama administration for finalising a new
Manas deal when it was overthrown.
Moscow has no intentions of disrupting American Afghan operations through the
Manas Air Base but only wanted the Kyrgyz Govt. to consult it before taking any
decision.  According to US Special Envoy to the region, Richard Holbrook, 35,000
US soldiers transit Manas every month for deployment in the war zone of
Afghanistan and rotation of forces.  Some other NATO allies like Canada also use
the base for transportation of its military-ware. The renewal of Manas contract
could not have been done without the approval of Moscow.
There are enough indications that the new government has Moscow’s blessings. 
Prime Minister Putin was the first to phone and congratulate Otunbayeva soon
after she declared herself the new President.  She sent her deputy Almazbek
Atambayev twice in one week to Moscow where he had wide ranging talks with
Putin’s deputy, Igor Sechin.  Russia offered to give Kyrgyzstan $ 20 million
grant and a $ 30 million concessional loan to help stabilise its economic
situation.  It also offered to send 25,000 tonnes of petroleum products to meet
seasonal requirements.
Apparently, the U.S. has had no clue to what was happening when violent clashes
erupted on April 6.  They did not predict the under currents of `volcanic’
changes but quickly recovered and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called to
congratulate Otunbayeva.  Assistant Secretary of State Blake made a hasty visit
to offer economic assistance. The Americans obviously were beaten by Russia but
it is too early to claim victory by any side.  The new Kyrgyz leaders were
original partners of `Tulip Revolution’ and therefore, are pro-Western.  The
Americans seem to be confident that they can win over the trust of Otunbayebv
and her colleagues, who have declared that the existing Manas agreements would
not be disturbed.
While internal equations are clearly a major spark to ignite the violent revolt,
Russians also seem to have reached the conclusion that Bakiyev was not a
reliable partner.  The reason for Russia’s disappointment with Bakiyev was the
latter’s attempts to bring China into an energy deal.  According to Stanislav
Belkovsky, head of Moscow based Institute of National Strategy, Bakiyev also
reneged on an agreement to increase Russian interest in a Soviet era defence
plant.
China seemed unprepared for the developments leading to the Kyrgyz regime
change.  As per their style of quiet diplomacy, high level Chinese officials
have since been arriving in droves to take stock of the situation and establish
contacts with the new leadership.  China had earlier given a $ 15 million aid
for infrastructure development and was trying to obtain rights to lay energy
pipelines for transit of gas supplies from other Central Asian countries to
China.
China also has concerns about large Uyghur population in Kyrgyzstan who have
traditionally close relations with their counterparts in the Chinese Xinxiang
Province.  China had snapped all- road and other transport links between the two
countries as a preventive action.  According to Chinese radio, its envoy to
Kyrgyzstan has offered an aid of four million dollars - Three million dollars as
humanitarian aid and one million as financial support- during his meeting on
April 19 with the head of interim government in Bishkek.
The fact that there are fresh violent incidents in the capital Bishkek and the
neighbouring areas on April 20, two weeks after regime change demonstrates that
the new government is still not in control of the situation.  Although deposed
President was persuaded by Kazak leaders to formally announce his resignation,
some of his followers are still restive and have threatened to launch a movement
to dislodge the Otunbayeva government.  Faizulla Rakhmanov, the Governor of
Jalalabad, a southern stronghold of the deposed President, addressed a rally of
supporters on April 19 where he declared “We will Restore Bakiyev’s Rule”.
 Violent marchers into the capital city seized lands, mostly belonging to ethnic
Russians.  These attacks   indicate anger over perceived Russian role in helping
the new leaders overthrow the Bakiyev Govt.
The new regime may eventually bring the situation to normal but they would soon
have to face the challenges its predecessor had grappled with as the Americans
and Russians would continue to vie each other for influence.  Otunbayeva’s
skills would be put to test to balance these contradictory pulls to her
advantage.