Kayani's Army And Its New Clout

Ever since the 2008 election ushered in a democratic government, Pakistan’s military leaders, especially the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Kayani, have repeatedly stated that the army will not intervene in political affairs.  Kayani seemed true to his word, ensuring that the military, which has ruled Pakistan for a longer period than the elected governments, remained confined to the barracks.

The image of Pakistan army had taken a ‘beating’ following the unpopular decisions of Kayani’s predecessor, President Pervez Musharraf. The return of dictatorship, and Musharraf’s arguably ‘friendly’ overtures to India had rattled more than a few feathers amongst the public and political class, and perhaps more importantly, military leadership. Little success in the war on terror under Pervez Musharraf, coupled with numerous instances of ‘double standards’ by ISI and  law enforcement agencies, brought the security apparatus as also the military under intense international scrutiny, both from foreign governments and the media. President Obama demanded credible results and accountability from Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

Kayani’s appointment as COAS has seen the army regain some much needed credibility. A resurgent army is flexing its muscles in matters that matter most to it.  Over time, Pakistan managed to address Washington’s concerns, with regular, albeit, seemingly convenient arrests of the Taliban and terrorist leaders, which often coincided with visits by US political and military leaders.

Washington’s concerns are mostly Afghanistan centric and those of terrorism targeting western interests, but which can be traced back to Pakistan. However, following the November 26, 2008 attacks on Mumbai, and the subsequent evidence that Pak based terrorist groups, individuals and military personnel orchestrated the incident, Washington was forced to compel Islamabad into taking action against elements responsible for the attack. But what Islamabad has done so far is no more than cosmetic.

KAYANI FOCUS

General Kayani’s army has primarily focused on issues within the tribal areas and those along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border – or at least that is what the international community is being led to believe. In reality, however, Kayani has masterfully played a dual role – publicly addressing the US and NATO concerns, while ‘privately’ fuelling anti-India sentiment and subversive activities.

From his early days in office, Kayani has ensured that the visible face of the army is involved in counter-terrorism operations in NWFP, in addition to working closely with his western counterparts to tackle extremist elements, both from an intelligence and operational perspective. The decision has paid dividends - in terms of military aid and hardware assistance. It also has given the establishment room to manoeuvre vis-à-vis its interests along the eastern border with India.

KAYANI AS LEADER

In questioning the army’s role in the foreign and security affairs of Pakistan, it is important to analyse the characteristics of its leadership. The two individuals in question would be COAS General Kayani, and Director General of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Lt. Gen Shujaat Pasha. Both share a close professional relationship. They are not politically motivated, unlike their predecessor Pervez Musharraf but as protégés of the Zia era, they are religiously inclined and arguably more conservative – a fact which has and will continue to be reflected in their stance vis-à-vis India.

General Kayani has not shied away from reaffirming “…commitment of Pakistan’s army to the Kashmir cause…” He has been stating that the issue must be resolved as per the ‘aspirations’ of the Kashmiri people and ‘not through’ trade. He also refers to Kashmir as the jugular vein of Pakistan, suggesting thereby that while the army will not interfere in the internal matters of the nation, it will play a ‘political’ role in Indo-Pak relations, especially with regards to Kashmir.

As a person, Kayani has some thing in common with General Zia-ul-Haq, who had propelled Pakistan the Shariah way. So much so, his tenure as COAS could see the resurgence of a more fundamentalist culture within the ranks of the army. In addition, his strong conservatism will allow the traditionally religious middle and lower ranks to identify with the COAS, holding him in good stead amongst his peers.

This is extremely important in the long term, as popularity within the military will ensure that Kayani is not forcibly removed and that he is publicly backed – two important aspects that were amiss towards the latter part of Musharraf’s innings. These very qualities may see an extension of his tenure; Prime Minister Gilani has already sounded him, going by a report in the influential Jang Group of papers.

BACK- SEAT DRIVING

A more conservative or religiously inclined army will not augur well for India, particularly as Pakistan’s army views India as its enemy No. One and repeatedly stated its commitment to the Kashmir cause. Furthermore, Kayani’s previous posting as head of the ISI, and his decision to handpick loyalist Pasha as his successor, and now gift him a one year extension reaffirm his virtually impenetrable control over the armed forces.

Historically ISI has a crucial grip over the power structure and in matters relating to foreign policy, particularly on Kashmir and India. Now with Kayani at the helm of GHQ in Rawalpindi, legitimacy and respectability have returned to the armed forces. And the back seat drivers have stymied the civilian government on foreign and security policy concerning India.

The most telling sign of the changing (already changed, according to some analysts) equation between the army and the civilian government over matters India is clear by the way terrorist groups are allowed to freely conduct their activities in Pakistan. Take the case of Jamaat-ud-Dawa. It was banned and its leader Hafiz Saeed was arrested. Now the ban is ineffective. Saeed is a freeman, holding rallies from Lahore to Muzaffarabad and calling for ‘water jihad’ and ‘open war’ against India.

Groups such as JuD and their leaders have close links with the ISI which is mostly manned by the army and is controlled and run by the army. Because of these linkages, the army can continue its proxy war against Indian interests. Since Washington’s concerns are being addressed by Kayani and his army, JuD and its affiliated groups will increase their anti-India campaign with impunity in the coming weeks and months. The recent attack on Indians at a Kabul guest house is a pointer.

ISI and army control the strings of groups and individuals intent on seeing a diminished role for India in Afghanistan. The Haqqani network is one such group which is waging Pakistan’s proxy war against India in Afghanistan.  All this makes clear that though it has reasserted itself in terms of foreign and security policy, the army is confining to matters pertaining to India and the Indian footprints in Afghanistan.

COAS Kayani is a career officer who has seen from close quarters the implications of the military taking over the country’s reins.  Given the negative impact of Musharrafisms, he is unlikely to pursue a political agenda. He is fully aware that his intervention in governance will be inviting the scrutiny of the public and the media – both powerful entities in today’s Pakistan. It is they who are responsible for the return to the Supreme Court bench of chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry.

No where in the world did a sacked chief justice get back his job like Chaudhry, that too after mass protests, which almost plunged the country into a state of anarchy.  COAS Kayani will not like to burn his fingers and will be more than happy to let the civilian government face the music on a host of issues confronting the country that range from high inflation and black-marketing in daily necessities like sugar, to increasing lawlessness and terror strikes even in urban centres.

Furthermore, history is not on the side of Pakistan army. Every time, the army directly intervened in all facets of political decision making, the military dictators met with an ignominious exit. The army suffered loss of face. By maintaining an arguably peripheral or almost non-existent role in political affairs,  in the eyes of the international community, Kayani’s army is able to gets its hold on the core issue of Pakistan since its birth 63 years ago – namely India and Kashmir. As a result, Pakistan’s army is able to continue doing what it knows best – take on India through subversive activities with little or no accountability.  
 
NEW CLOUT

Arguably, the resurgence of the army is being felt in other areas as well.
The UN team which is probing Benazir Bhutto’s assassination at the behest of Pakistan government, wanted to meet some retired and serving military officers. But the permission was denied.   Kayani’s office has ensured that the Khakis remained untouched.

Another instance of military’s clout was evident after the arrest leader Mullah Badar.  Interior Minister Rehman Malik denied the arrest and quashed suggestions of joint operations with the CIA.

It was not a case of disconnect between the army and the government but a clear pointer to the fact that the military is willing to initiate measures without fully informing the political establishment. There are many such instances to the discomfort of Rehman Malik.                

WHAT NEXT

It would be foolhardy to think that Pakistan’s military has taken a backseat on foreign and security policy vis-à-vis India. It has never wavered. And remains unifocal in its resolve. If there is any thing akin to change, it is that it has taken a different route to reach its current position. In hindsight, it can be said the terrorist attacks on Mumbai that resulted in breakdown of the composite dialogue allowed Pakistan army to claim a bigger stake in the India-Kashmir equation.

Post 26/11, the international scrutiny of Pakistan’s actions allowed the government and military to gain some much needed legitimacy through a crackdown on terrorist elements. These actions, it is by now clear, were selective. And allowed Pakistan’s military to bide time, while refurbishing the country’s image as a frontline state in the war on terror.

The international community may not have forgotten the carnage that engulfed Mumbai a little over one year ago but it is distracted by the well timed arrests and crucial breakthroughs in Pakistan’s counter-terrorism fight, including the success of operations in Swat and South Waziristan. With the focus of the war on terror once again shifting to Afghanistan and Pakistan’s tribal areas, anti-India terrorist groups are making their way back towards the LOC. Aided by Pakistan’s army and the ISI, these groups will continue, if not increase, their acts of subversion in India in the immediate to medium term.

With Kayani latching on to the all important Kashmir dispute, he has managed to strike an important chord with Pakistanis for whom the issue is integral to their identity. Reports in newspapers like Ausaf of thousands of youth lining up to join the army in Muzaffarabad with the dream of partaking in jihad against India and achieving martyrdom reflect this sentiment.

Ironically, India has been the one unifying factor for Pakistan, a fact recognised by the military at partition. Kayani, Pasha and other military officers will be loathe to give up anti- India plank. They will continue to propagate the anti-India sentiment as best as they can – through border skirmishes, accusations against New Delhi, Kashmir rhetoric and the water issue with JuD, LeT, JeM and other jihadi terrorist groups serving as foot soldiers of the proxy war.