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US, Pakistan, and Pak - based terrorist games

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Historically, Pakistan-based terrorist groups are used as mere pressure groups for certain ‘parties/players’ to exert pressure on either  civilian government in Pakistan, India with regards to Kashmir or international actors with the intention of targeting more aid. The US knows that these groups are controlled by players within Pakistan, but for them the concern has always been their own well-being first and hence has allowed these players to control the activities of these militant groups. For them it was easy as these groups were not targeting any western areas and hence were comfortably ignored. The ignorance led to these groups garnering more power and causing enough destruction for the Americans to sit up and take notice. With the chances of these groups joining hands with the Taliban and eventually Al-Qaeda increasing, the possible deadly nexus became a cause of concern for the US, but still they would approach the issue with caution, keeping their own interests at the forefront.   

Current Scenario

The 26/11 attacks in Mumbai made many international actors stand up and take notice of the fact that India has been one of the real victims of terrorism. It also shook the world as it was one of the most devastating acts of terror since 9/11 itself. But the other observation was that the said terrorists were now targeting foreign tourists in India. The attack brought the question of Pak-based terror outfits being active and planning such attacks openly in Pakistan, and yet Pakistan was in denial of the same. The US showed certain concern towards this, not because of the fact that certain reports had indicated that LeT was trying to expand its operations beyond Asia, but more because it was the need of the hour. The US has had a habit of standing up and expressing concerns on issues which have already taken place. But the concern with regards to terror groups in Pakistan has actually never converted into concrete actions. With foreigners being the target in 26/11, the US was forced to make some mandatory statements and again stand by its image as a ‘protector’.

The US, even though it may make statements against the LeT, will always look at the group with selfish intentions. Reports have indeed indicated that the group was trying to spread its wings outside Asia and it was this growth which the US is looking at stemming. If this concern is addressed, then it wouldn’t be exactly interested what the same group does with concern to India. The world has had enough proof about the involvement of the LeT in extremely horrific attacks on Indian soil, but actions against the same group has been sporadic, with a ban and freezing of bank accounts being the biggest set of action taken. This has not managed to curb its activities as it uses other fronts such as the JuD and other names to carry out its activities. The US, even though it has issued statements against Hafiz Saeed and his activities, has not openly forced Pakistan to completely clamp down on the group’s activities. For the US, the LeT will be a cause of concern if it tries to merge or act hand in glove with the Taliban or the Al-Qaeda. Though the LeT sympathizes with these groups, there hasn’t been concrete evidence that they are actually working with each other. As long as this scenario is non-existent, the US will not pressurize Pakistan with regards to these Pak-based groups.  

The David Headly scenario for the US has become more of an embarrassment more than anything else. Hence it will try its best to keep other interested parties away from speaking to Headly. The US is safeguarding its own interest by not allowing India access to him. Headly, on his own, actually knows too many things with concern to 26/11 and hence his statements could open a Pandora’s Box for the US. Even if Headly is not an American agent, though certain reports are pointing otherwise, the American authorities know that he actually has too much information to give. Headly knows the Pakistani players involved behind the planning and execution of the 26/11 attacks and these names could be those of high-ranking officers in the armed forces. The US currently is not in a situation to rub Pakistan in the wrong way, given the fact that it needs Pakistan more than anything in its operations in Afghanistan. The move to keep Headly away from the Indian authorities is also to win more supporters in the Pakistani establishment, which is actually strengthening its grip within the civilian government.

The fact remains that Washington views Pakistan as a valuable partner currently. The amount of aid it has dumped in Pakistan is a certain indicator of the same. Pakistan is surely not in a position to dictate terms to the US, but it knows that the Americans need them the most. With the Americans planning their exit strategy, the actual execution would need support from Pakistan i.e. the armed forces. The Army has already spread its influence into the civilian government and Kayani is seen to be the person with whom Washington prefers to maintain fact contact with regards to the armed operations. With Afghanistan as its major concern, the Americans are ready to be lax on other issues. Hence one of the reasons of not allowing access to Headly would be to maintain its closeness with the Army in Pakistan, who wouldn’t want Headly to be given over to India given his access to information. The US understands the influence wielded by the Pakistani Army and certain leaders on the Taliban and wants to use that influence to leave Afghanistan in the most amicable manner. Hence, it would refrain itself from making any statements or actions against the interests of Islamabad in the current scenario. This can be seen in the statements made by the US with regards to Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan and its efforts to tackle terrorism on its own soil. These have mainly positive statements and in support of the actions made by Pakistan, all in order to please the necessary ‘parties’. Still the influence of Islamabad on Washington’s policies is not strong enough as the US still manages to carry out drone attacks despite criticism from Pakistan and it has managed to push the Pakistani army to carry out the necessary armed operations on its own soil. Hence it wouldn’t be fair to say that Islamabad is actually able to dictate terms to Washington.
The fact of the matter is that the US will keep turning a blind eye to certain activities of Pakistan as long as Islamabad keeps on doing what the US wishes it to do. To keep the army operations in place and continue drone attacks, Washington is ready to part with more aid to Islamabad.

It is true that Islamabad has managed to influence Washington’s stance with regards to terrorism in India, but that has been limited. Despite statements issued from Washington with regards to punishing those behind 26/11, Islamabad has followed its own route in investigating and tackling issue. It calls for more dossiers and information are pure delay-tactics, which again Washington hasn’t been able to influence and hasten. Hafiz Saeed free movement reflects the fact even though Islamabad says it interested in eliminating terrorism, it had put the TTP and other similar groups on its radar, and not the group in with which India is concerned. Though India has always voiced its concerns regarding the Punjabi militant groups and their uncontrolled growth, Islamabad has not paid heed to the same. Similarly, when it is necessary to issue statements and pressurize Pakistan with regards to the said militant groups. Washington has managed to diplomatically turn its attention away from it.

With the need of the hour being that Washington needs Pakistani assistance and influence to control certain parts in Afghanistan, it is ready appease Pakistan in certain areas. On the other hand, it wouldn’t like to loose Delhi’s faith as it sees India as the only country worthy enough to stand against China. Hence it will always see to that India is not displeased to much. Hence statements which ask the perpetrators of 26/11 to be brought to justice and ignoring Islamabad’s pleas for a civil nuclear deal are mainly aimed at addressing India’s growing concerns with regards to US-Pakistan relations.


What Next  

Islamabad currently is at a position of extracting huge amount of aid and other perks just not from the US, but other countries too. It has understood that the US needs its support the most and hence will try and exploit this situation to make some major gains. But it also knows that the situation will not last forever and hence it has kept itself closer to Beijing. For the power controllers in Pakistan, it is a period to reap maximum benefits and hence it is pleading for a civil nuclear deal amongst other claims. It may well use the current situation to force Washington to initiate dialogues between India and Pakistan, with Kashmir and Water being the only topics of discussion from Islamabad’s corner. Washington, though, will not want to cross the lines too much and hence will engage in diplomatic statements which can be interpreted in more than one way by the parties in question. With the US looking for desperate solutions in Afghanistan, Islamabad will maintain its contact and influence on the Taliban and will use it as and when required. It’s a precarious situation which sees the US making a choice between the lesser of two evils and hence that will be the biggest reason of sticking closer to Islamabad.

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