The result is not an endorsement of President Rajapakse’s policies, though the overall vote share has dropped marginally – to 51.1 per cent from 54.7 percent registered in the provincial election held in 2008. It shows that the opposition has failed to put up a good fight. The UNP, which is rocked by faction fights and the discredited JVP together with UPFA have become Tweedledum and Tweedledee of Sri Lanka political scene.
In North Central the ruling coalition increased its seat tally from 20 to 21, and in Sabaragamuwa province from 25 to 28. In the Eastern Province, where there is a substantial Tamil and Muslim presence, however, the UPFA seat tally dropped sharply from 20 to 14. According to media reports, the UPFA leaders’ campaign created the scare of LTTE regrouping and re-emerging “with the backing of the international powers”. Rajapakse portrayed his government as the victim of the Western powers and appealed to voters to support the country against the “international community.”
In 2008, UPFA came to power in the Eastern Province in alliance with the Tamil People’s Freedom Party (TMVP), which is a breakaway faction of the LTTE. TMVP is known to terrorising political opponents, especially among the Tamil and Muslim communities. The verdict is a vote against these tactics.
Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), though a coalition partner in Colombo, contested the Eastern Province election on its own. It is possible the two allies may come together to keep rivals at bay. And SLMC leader Rauf Hakeem, a minister in the Rajapakse government, will drive a hard bargain.
The worst sufferers of Rajapakse’s gamble of early provincial election are undoubtedly the United National Party (UNP) and Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP); both depend on the same Sinhala chauvinist constituency for their votes. UNP tally fell steeply from 44 to 29 in the three councils and its vote dropped from 40.2 to 27.7 percent. The JVP lost its two seats in Sabaragamuwa, and its lone seat in the East; it is left with only one seat on the North Central Provincial Council. Its vote declined from 2.8 percent to 1.6 percent.
Tamil National Alliance (TNA), which was once known as the LTTE’s over ground proxy, could have exploited its rivals’ faultlines. It did not and hence it made a marginal gain of 11 seats in the Eastern Province. TNA MP Suresh Premachandran has admitted frankly that he himself is surprised at the poor show. “We performed below expectations because not enough Tamils voted (for us),” he says now. Nonetheless TNA may like to leverage this limited turf for a share in the power pie but it will be forced to make compromises along the way.
