This week marks the fifth anniversary of the war in Syria. The level of fighting has diminished significantly though thanks largely due to “cessation of hostilities agreement” brokered by Washington and Moscow.
The Syrian civil war for regime change is no more than a proxy war waged almost entirely by Al Qaeda-linked militias armed and funded by some regional powers. It has claimed over a quarter of a million lives, and turned nearly 12 million people into refugees. Nearly 85 percent of Syrians are living in poverty with the national economy shattered beyond any doubt.
The UN has brought together representatives of the Syrian government together with the collection of Islamist fanatics and foreign intelligence assets united in the Riyadh opposition in a third attempt to negotiate a cease-fire and “political transition.”
Putin’s Russia has in the meanwhile announced that it was withdrawing the majority of its military forces from Syria. It will however, maintain its naval facility in Tartus and its air base in the western province of Latakia.
In less than six months, the Russian intervention enabled Syrian government troops to regain some 4,000 square miles of territory and 400 towns. It also firmed up their grip over western Syria which includes major population centers, while cutting-off the main supply routes from Turkey for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the al-Nusra Front, Syria’s Al Qaeda franchise.
For the moment, the Obama administration will seek to exploit the UN-brokered “peace talks” and any concessions that it can wring from Moscow, Tehran and the government of President Bashar al-Assad itself to pursue the regime change that it has been unable to bring about by force. US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, explaining Obama’s view, said Asia “is the part of the world of greatest consequence to the American future.” He is therefore loathe to have another US war in the Middle East.
Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley has also slipped in a caveat while appearing before the House Armed Services Committee. While US troops are prepared to conduct “counter-terrorism” and “counter-insurgency” missions, fighting “ISIS, Al Qaeda, al-Nusra and any other terrorist groups,” he had “grave concerns” about their readiness to engage in a “great-power war” with an enemy such as China, Russia or Iran.
“There is a high level of risk associated with those contingencies right now,” he added, arguing that failing to build up US troop strength would be to “roll the dice.” After testifying, General Milley and other service commanders gave the congressional committee “risk assessments” for another major war in a closed session.
As the Syrian experience shows, war whether in Syria or anywhere else in today’s world, carries a great price in terms of human suffering while holding out the threat of spread of the conflict.
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