POREG VIEW: It is now “official” that the Taliban leadership is holding secret talks with the Karzai Government at different levels and places to explore each other on prospects for a peace agreement. The talks that were taking place in Dubai had delegates from Quetta Shura, the highest Taliban governing body in Pakistan headed by none other than Mullah Mohammad Omar. Talks have also taken place in Kabul between President Karzai and representatives of various Taliban factions including their masters, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). A delegation of Haqqani network, including Sirajuddin’s brother and uncle, visited Kabul accompanied by senior officers of the ISI for talks with Afghan officials. Haqqani and Hamid Karzai also held a direct meeting somewhere near Pak-Afghan border some 5-6 months ago.
Both the American and other interlocutors confirmed the fact of these talks being held. Last week, Gen. David Petraeus, the US Commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, stated that high level Taliban leaders had “sought to reach out” to the top level of the Karzai Government. Giving a positive spin, he said “This is how you end these kinds of insurgencies”.
White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said that President Obama supports high level talks between the Afghan government and senior Taliban representatives, who enjoy the blessings of Mullah Omar. Reports appeared in the British paper, The Guardian, since confirmed that the US Government is also in contact with Haqqani network.
Observers aver that the US response reflects a major change in the American attitude; in the past Washington opposed any contact with Mullah Omar or Sirajuddin Haqqani.
The focus of the talks is said to br centered on the conditions under which the Taliban would agree to a ceasefire. It is believed that the Taliban have dropped the demand that foreign forces should be fully withdrawn from Afghan soil before any peace talks are conducted. They are now willing to accept an agreed time table for the exit of the NATO troops.
While some of the Taliban leaders could be accommodated in the government and its institutions, some of the lieutenants of Mullah Omar could be given immunity from prosecution and allowed to go into exile in Saudi Arabia under a deal with the host Government. America, on its part, is insisting that Taliban pledge to respect Afghan law and to lay down their arms.
Some officials, who are in the talks loop, speak of some sort of gradualism in Taliban’s rehabilitation. Under the proposal, initially Taliban could be allowed to head local Governments before senior leaders could be accommodated at the federal level. The US hopes to have some arrangement on the ground so that it will be possible to stick to the schedule of forces withdrawal from mid – next year as announced earlier by President Obama.
Given the complexity of the Afghan problem, quick breakthrough may not be round the corner. Firstly, the on-going secret talks are about talks – about the modalities of how to hold the talks. The Taliban groups are participating in the dialogue to explore as to what the US and Karzai governments are offering. They did not want to be out of this consultation process particularly in the light of the Americans looking for their `honourbale’ exit. There might also be pressure from the ISI as the Pakistan would like to have a pre-eminent position at the peace table and thereby safeguard its position in Kabul’s new dispensation.
Secondly, the Taliban is an amorphous structure with various factions loosely working in an independent manner. There is no change in their ideology or their practice of what they call “true Islam”. Even if some of the Talibani leaders and cadres are brought into a power sharing arrangement, many others may remain outside the process and continue what they have been doing. In the absence of any change in their ideology, they are unlikely to transform into “good” boys, as the Americans would like to have.
Another most crucial aspect would be the Taliban’s relationship with Osama bin Laden and his al Qaida. The Americans have been stating that now very few al Qaida cadres are left and are dispersed inside Pakistan. If that is the case, who are all these European terrorists now threatening to launch `Mumbai-style’ attacks? One of the Saudi conditions for awarding asylum to Taliban leaders was `de-linking’ with Osama’s al-Qaida. There are no signs of Taliban’s willingness to throw out the al Qaida.
According to European media reports, the `peaceniks’ in the US and Europe have been relying a lot on the book, “My Life with the Taliban”, written by Taliban’s former ambassador to Pakistan, Abdul Salam Zaeef. He is a deadly combination of Pakistani and Talibani radical ideology and his book was published at a time when he was trying to prove himself and his other senior colleagues as “nice” guys so as to secure their release from American prisons. Zaeef has written that senior Taliban leaders are very reasonable and responsible. One should be very careful of taking his propaganda material as `gospel’ truth.
Even former military ruler Gen. (Retd) Musharraf says “there is no such thing as moderate Taliban”. He is also opposed to talking to the Taliban. In an interview to German magazine “Der Spiegel”, Musharraf said it would be a `blunder’ to talk to the Taliban and his advice was to strengthen the Pashtun people, who are not ideologically linked to the Taliban and continue to fight the radical organisation. In his view, it would be the worst possible `blunder’ if the US is prepared to quit Afghanistan without winning war against Taliban. A sane advice from a General who was deeply involved in raising, training and supporting the Taliban right from day one.
