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Tunisia Ignites Democracy Urge

Events in Tunisia appear to have a wide domino effect though initial sings in Tunisia itself suggest that a period of uncertainty and violence is more likely than a quick return to normalcy. If Tunisia plunges into chaos now it will hardly inspire other dissatisfied people in the region to follow the lead in throwing out their despotic and corrupt leaders, many of whom on friendly terms with the US and the West.

Much of the world was taken aback by the vigour with which the people of Tunisia revolted against the absolute rule of their avaricious leader, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, forcing him to flee the country into the safe nest provided by the ruler of Saudi Arabia—a familiar role for the latter. Ben Ali had ruled the country uninterruptedly since 1987 during which he and his extended family, including his wife, amassed an astonishing fortune, obviously at the cost of the welfare of the ordinary Tunisians.

The people’s anger burst like a dam. It was obviously building over the years. Ben Ali refused to read the signs which must have been evident in advance to any ruler who is not intoxicated with power and obsessed with accumulating personal wealth.

The revulsion against the ousted president and his Democratic Constitutional Party (known by its French acronym RCD) has been so intense that the interim government of national unity headed by Ben Ali’s prime minister, Mohamed Gannouchi, has been greeted by street protests and demands for his removal as well all others belonging to the RCD who had been given the key portfolios in the interim cabinet.  

Gannouchi has been prime minister since 1999 and is known to be instrumental in introducing economic reforms in the country. That is not sufficient to endear him to the people. He was able to occupy the seat of power after the people’s revolt largely because of the Emergency situation. The country expects polls within the next six months, but nobody seems to be sure about it and, besides, polls without political reforms will be meaningless.  

The trigger for the revolt against the Ben Ali regime was ignited literally by Mohamed Bouazizi, an educated youth in a small town who, unable to find a job, was trying to eke out a living by selling vegetables on the streets, only to be evicted by the Police. The desperate youth burnt himself to death and thus sparked off a wave of anger that spread across the country.

Reports of suicide by self-immolation by youth in some countries in the Arab world, as far apart as Algeria and Yemen, and spontaneous streets protests have led many to wonder if events in Tunisia will have a wide domino effect that will travel beyond the Maghreb of five North African countries, most of which are former French colonies.

A lot will perhaps depend on how the current situation in Tunisia plays itself out in the next few weeks. Initial signs from that country suggest that a period of uncertainty and violence is more likely than a quick return to normalcy. If Tunisia plunges into chaos now it will hardly inspire other dissatisfied people in the region to follow the lead in throwing out their despotic and corrupt leaders, many of whom on friendly terms with the US and the West.

Some Tunisia watchers seem to think that the country will save itself from chaos because its politics has been traditionally moderate and built around consensus. But at the moment the fury among the people is so strong that they do not want to settle for anything less than a complete transformation in the government, devoid of any representation of the old guard from the RCD.

There are two problems here. One, the political Opposition has been by and large weak and fragmented in Tunisia with many in the Opposition being accused of subservience to Ben Ali. Two, a totally new set of politicians uninitiated in the art of governance may not be a good prescription for a team to take charge of a country where people’s expectations have suddenly risen very high.

One of the problems all too evident in Iraq after Saddam Hussain was driven out was that the Americans, call them ‘liberators’ or ‘occupiers’, had immediately launched into a mass scale de-Bathification programme under which all those suspected of being a member of the Bath party were kept away from the administrative structure, including the security forces. A huge vacuum was created which has been not filled even eight years after the ouster of Saddam Hussain.

The damage it has done to Iraq needs hardly any recounting. The American forces may have left but the security situation is still fragile and governance in Iraq has been neither easy nor efficient. New wounds have been opened in the shape of sharp Shia-Sunni differences being settled with the help of terrorist attacks.

Another problem in Iraq was the foreign intervention. Tunisia’s revolt has been free from it. In fact, its former colonial power, France, was criticised for being slow to react to developments in Tunisia. The Americans are talking cautiously. If the Tunisians are able to find a solution on their own, without any direct interference by the outside powers, it might be good for them and the wider region in the Arab world where rumblings of protests seem to be getting louder.

The common denominators among all these countries where protests against existing regimes are becoming louder are almost the same: poverty, rising food prices, unemployment, corruption, lack of political freedom, long rule by autocrats etc. If people in Tunisia are unhappy because of these problems there is reason to believe that their counterparts in other countries in the region are against the status quo.

Some of the countries in the region have small population and hope that this factor will help them arrest any domino effect from Tunisia reaching their shores. But the people in countries like Algeria (population 35.4 million) have the same aspirations as those in Tunisia. A dictator like Muammar Gadafi of Libya has probably outlived the people’s hospitality by remaining in power for 41 years.    

On country where anger has been boiling for long is Egypt. President Hosni Mubarak at 82 shows no sign of stepping down; if he does decide to do so he wants to hand over the baton to his son. Egypt is a country of over 84 million people. A country with such a large population can explode with disastrous consequences for a ruler who is seen as incapable of solving the bread and butter issue.

It may not take long to find out how far the fragrance of Tunisia’s jasmine revolution spreads in the Arab world.

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