Understandably Pakistan military is still in the denial mode about the operation. Pro-establishment dailies like Nawa-i-Waqt are terming the news of operations in North Waziristan as a joke. These reports need to be taken with a pinch of salt as evidence is mounting of a ‘quiet’ preparation.
Two factors are the giveaways.
One disappearance of some Taliban fighters (mysteriously abducted is the expression used in despatches). Generally such disappearances take place at the bidding of the local formations of the army as a part of calibrated strategy to lessen US pressure.
Second, terrorists are migrating in large numbers from Khyber Pakhtunkhwah (NWFP/FATA) to South Punjab. There is no reason for them to flee the tribal belt where they have been entrenched for years except the prospect of drone strikes and security operations. Even the Haqqani group, it is said, has left North Waziristan and has moved towards the Afghan province of Khost.
‘Operations’ and ‘talks’ running on parallel tracks will undoubtedly bring the U.S. and the Pakistani military closer. Larger defence package for Pakistan, if materialises, will be a natural corollary. One report puts the largesse at $113 billion in the current fiscal year and $107 billion in the next year as ‘war expenses’.
Also significant is the reported meetings between the Pakistani officials and the Ambassadors of Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan. These meetings are a further indication of the ‘go ahead’ for the Saudi mediation. The. Afghan Taliban have put forward a four -point agenda: One America must pull out from Afghanistan; Second shift of U.S. forces to the Bagram Airbase, Third stop NATO attacks ; Fourth end drone attacks on Afghans and Pashtuns. The Taliban’s former emissary to Arab nations, Mullah Abdul Khaleed, said that they have no direct dispute with Pakistan but her support of America is a problem.
One immediate objective of the talks is to separate the moderate Taliban, if not the entire Taliban and its clones, from Al Qaeda now that Osama bin Laden is no more.
It is a big gamble that can backfire because the Taliban and Al Qaeda share a common ideology; they had complimented each other in the past. And Al Qaeda is not dead though Osama is dead. Talks with the Taliban progressing smoothly, Pakistan is contemplating a peace council along the lines of the Peace Jirga. And the Interior Minister Rehman Malik has announced amnesty for ‘misguided’ youth.
The scenario is bound to go up in spin if the views of former ISI chief, Hamid Gul, who, according to his own claims, is the creator of Taliban, are factored in. He contends that the recent attack on Pakistan Navy’s Mehran base was a dress rehearsal for an attack on Pakistan’s nuclear facilities in Karachi through submarines.
The base housed P-3C Orion planes, which were destroyed in the 17-hour long terrorist attack. These planes were provided by America for surveillance of submarine movement. Inquiry by the Karachi police has an interesting ‘interim’ finding- terrorists entered Mehran base ‘with the help of one half of the ladder that was situated outside’ and the other half that was ‘placed on the inner half of the base’.
