As of now, one thing is clear. The drone attacks have not subdued the militants. The Pakistan army has not undertaken any serious anti-militancy drive. The Islamist fundamentalists’ primary goal is re-establishment of the khalifat. They will undoubtedly like to begin their campaign from home ground which is Pakistan, particularly South Waziristan, a TTP sanctuary, says the analyst
On July 12, militants raided a prison in Lahore, Pakistan, leaving nine guards dead and three more wounded. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan claimed responsibility for the attack, saying the guards had mistreated prisoners who were members of the Pakistani militant group. The raid came just three days after militants ambushed an army camp in the district of Gujrat, also in Punjab province, killing seven soldiers and one police officer who were searching for a missing helicopter pilot. The TTP took credit for that attack as well.
TTP leader Fazlullah is keen on retaking Swat. He is operating from Kunar. His cross border raids in Dir district have become a headache to the Pakistan army.These attacks coincided with Pakistan’s decision to reopen the NATO supply routes through the country to Afghanistan. The supply routes had been closed after the US forces raided a Pakistani border post at Salalah and killed 24 soldiers last November. Initially the US refused to say sorry for the attack but as the cost of transportation to NATO forces through Central Asia mounted, the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton conveyed her regrets to Pakistan’s foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar and paved the way for resumption of supplies through Karachi port.
Religious parties and the Pakistan Taliban have been vocally opposed to the re-opening. In fact on the day the routes reopened, the TTP told journalists from its perch in NWFP that it would attack trucks carrying NATO supplies. Both the TTP and a section of Pakistani political spectrum will use the issue to whip up anti- Americanism in the country more so since the US has resume the drone attacks on militant hide outs in the tribal belt.
The US still sees Pak army as an ally despite several acts of its perfidy. It appears to believe that peace and security in Afghanistan after 2014 would very much depend on the Kayani army. As of now, one thing is clear. The drone attacks have not subdued the militants. The Pakistan army has not undertaken any serious anti-militancy drive. The Islamist fundamentalists’ primary goal is re-establishment of the khalifat. They will undoubtedly like to begin their campaign from home ground which is Pakistan, particularly South Waziristan, a TTP sanctuary. The Pakistan Taliban had held complete sway from the picturesque Swat valley which is on the tri-section of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan. It lost its hold to the Pakistan army last year.
TTP leader Fazlullah is keen on retaking Swat. He and his followers are operating from neighbouring Kunar province of Afghanistan; at the moment their cross border raids in Dir district have become a headache to the Pakistan army.
The United States still sees the Pakistan army as an ally despite several acts of its perfidy. Washington appears to believe that peace and security in Afghanistan after 2014 withdrawal of NATO forces would very much depend on Pakistan army. This is clear from a willingness on part of the US to walk the extra mile to please the GHQ in Rawalpindi. One give away to the mood is the recent statement from the US that said Pakistan is no longer wedded to its concept of strategic depth across the Durand Line.
Gen Kayani is not willing to risk his army’s image by plunging head-long into national affairs. He is content with keeping the political leaders on the leash through the judiciaryThe US would have welcomed talks with the Taliban and even the Haqqani network with Pakistan playing the role of an honest broker. There is not much progress on this front and Washington invoked its old practice of banning the Haqqanis hoping that they would fall in-line sooner than later. Undoubtedly, Pakistan would be cementing its bargaining position with the US if it manages to bring to the table the militants along the Pak-Afghan border. On their part, the Pashtun dominated TTP also will welcome a say since they too are after political power.
How things will shape up on Pakistan’s domestic front are difficult to predict notwithstanding the dominant role the army enjoys in the country. All political parties are gearing up for elections. Gen Kayani is not willing to risk his army’s image by plunging headlong into national affairs. His preference is to let the politicians grapple with the economic and political ills. He is content with keeping the political leaders on the leash through the judiciary.
Pakistan is today a fertile ground for Arab Spring like situation but such a spring will not materialise because of Pakistanis general apathy to what happens in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. It is possible that Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and other radical elements will seek to exploit the situation but because of their close links with the security establishment, which has been nurturing them directly or indirectly, the radical elements will do no more than staging controlled implosions to register their continued relevance.
-by m rama rao
