Bangladesh-Nepal

What Next in Nepal….

As of now Prime Minister Khanal appears to be unnerved by the threat posed by his Big Brother in the government but two recent developments are pointers to a new scenario, says the author, a SAARC Fellow, working for his PhD

The third government after the election of the Constituent Assembly (CA) is in place in Nepal under the prime ministership of Jhalanath Khanal. However, it could not give full shape to the cabinet even after more than ten weeks of its formation. In fact the Khanal government was run without even a single cabinet minister for six days; it took a month to allocate the portfolio for three ministers of his own party. It also took more than a month in inducting four Maoist ministers. Though the Maoist party, the largest coalition partner, joined the government after going back and forth thrice in an unseemly public display of its dilemma, it is still to recommend its nominees to give final shape to the cabinet. Rather, it has recently come up with the plan to hold what it calls “serious discussion” with Prime Minister Khanal saying that he is running the government ‘unilaterally’.

As of now, Khanal appears to be untouched by the threat posed by his big brother in the government. Also, he seems to be less worried over the delay in cabinet expansion and the stalemate in the peace process and drafting the Constitution. That is clear from what he said on April 11, 2011 that "the Cabinet expansion could take up to six rounds…There is no haggle over the Home Ministry, neither is there a problem [regarding the Home portfolio] as rumoured." Why? It is because Khanal has set his priority to strengthen his own factional in the party so that he could defeat other heavyweights; concluding the peace process and bringing statute on time seems to be in his least priority.  

Khanal was well aware of his limitation before he signed the seven-point deal the Maoist leadership and became the prime minister. In fact, he signed the agreement not to implement it, but to head the government. He learnt something from the Maoist party, according to which there would be no harm in signing agreements if these help in attaining the immediate goal with no worry or concern about past accords. Neither is he now ready in offering the home portfolio to the Maoists even though it was agreed upon. Objections from various quarters including his party faction against offering the home portfolio to the Maoist came in handy to him. Inability of the Maoists in recommending more ministers has suited Khanal and he could single-handedly run the government by taking charge of most ministries. And he is ready to turn the tables on the Maoists by asking ‘How many agreements signed by you in the past have been implemented?’  

On their part, the Maoist party has been publicly saying that it did not recommend names of more ministers due to the prime minister’s reluctance to allocate home ministry to the Maoists as per the 7-point deal. This is not the ruse; there are many reasons behind the delayed cabinet expansion. The Maoist party wants additional budget for the remaining three months of this fiscal year. But the proposal has been heavily criticized by every section of the society saying that it is not feasible now to bring additional budget for three months. 

An interesting characteristic of the Maoists is their penchant to be on the treasury benches and the opposition at the same time or to put more bluntly to play the role of an opposition to their own government and to search for alibis to run down the government. In the present instance, the Maoist leadership is not willing to settle the portfolio issue and so they have picked up the refrain ‘Prime Minister’s betrayal’ as pep talk to the cadres. And in the process the party is able to ward off internal pressures from ministerial aspirants. It is said that there are more than 110 Maoist leaders who want to become ministers.

Prime Minister Khanal knows that the Maoist party can leave the government if it is convinced that it would get larger support for its political goal that is "people’s revolt". He also knows that the Maoists carders will be happy by this government as they have a very strong dream of “state capture”. Even the Dahal-led government could not grab their support and eventually Dahal had to resign. The Army Chief case was only a pretext for the resignation; the real cause was the dissatisfaction of Maoist cadres over the government’s performance. 

Peace Process , Statute and Future Scenario  

Though only a few weeks remain for the deadline to promulgate the new constitution, there are more than 75 unresolved points related to the State Restructuring,  and another 30 unresolved issues related to the form of governance, fundamental rights and directive principles amongst others. But political parties have their own priorities; the Nepali Congress (NC) has given priority to bring the peace process to the logical end before promulgating the new constitution. Power sharing seems to be the priority of the Maoist party. It has no interest in concluding the on-going peace process before promulgation of the new constitution. 

In fact, the Maoists want to keep the cantonment intact till the new election so that it can influence the election outcome. Also because of the large monetary benefit it is receiving from the cantonment as levy.. That is why the Maoist party once decided to recall its president Dahal from CA’s Sub-Committee on March 30, 2011 claiming that he, being a leader of the largest party in the coalition, could not allocate enough time in the Sub-Committee related work.  

Dahal was its convener and it was able to settle more than one hundred and ninty knotty issues through high-level intra-party discussions.  It is said that Dahal’s decision to quit was an outcome of the continued pressure from Maoist hardliners, who held the view that the party“had to compromise a lot and take back its position on various issues” for the sake of consensus. The decision to withdraw from such an important task at the last minute implies that they have other priorities over the constitution-making process. 

In this situation, what will happen after May 28, 2011 is a big question. Will the Constituent Assembly (CA) get another extension? This forum gives not only the recognition to the Maoist as the single largest party, but also provides it with economic benefits as its cadres are getting 14.4 million (Nepali) rupees per month, and the party gets 2.4 million out of that every month. Hence, the Maoist does not want to give up the opportunity but wants to continue it. Also, in the CA, there are many from all parties who are there by default today with an uncertain political future. Such members also want extension.

All parties, except the Maoists, are against extension of the life of the CA. Nevertheless, a 3-4 month extension would be an easier option for most of them to avoid any kind of uncertainty once the tenure of the house gets over. Significantly, the Supreme Court of Nepal recently ruled that the CA should not be dissolved before the new constitution is promulgated. Most of the civil society organizations are likely to cite the verdict to pressurize political parties to let the CA to continue. In such a situation, it will be difficult for the Nepali Congress (NC), Madhesh-based parties and others to stand in the way.

April 14 threw up the possibility of another scenario. Marking the Nepali New Year 2068, civil society groups organised on that day a successful rally. A prominent Madhesi leader Mahanta Thakur declared “It is now meaningless to be in the CA.” Both these developments cannot rule out the possibility of dissolving the CA after its tenure is over by May 28, 2011. 

Firstly because the New Year rally has given a message that there are quite large number of people who are not satisfied with the current government, and they can go to any extent to protest against it. Secondly because Mahanta Thakur who may resign from the CA and create ‘peaceful’ unrest at least in the Terai region. 

If the situation turns volatile, it will be very difficult for the Maoist party to continue in the ruling coalition as it will not be ready to accept responsibility for government’s handling of the situation. In such an eventuality, the Maoist party will withdraw from the government. It may either support one of the protests or launch another protest on its own. Once the Khanal government falls into a minority and the tenure of the CA is over, the only option would be to dissolve the CA, and go for interim or ultra-constitutional arrangements.     

—By Uddhab Pd. Pyakurel 

The author is working towards Ph.D. degree at Jawaharlal Nehru                 University, New Delhi as SAARC fellow. He is author of a book “Maoist         Movement in Nepal: A Sociological Perspective”. 

 

 

Sharing:

Your comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *