Some sections of the youth at the forefront of the campaign for change are clamouring for a national government led by Mohamed El Baradei, who is known internationally for his liberal views. But the military leadership has clearly told El Baradei and former Arab League leader Amr Moussa to support Prime Minister Ghanzouri. Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi told them that the army would not submit to pressure or scale back its powers under a new constitution.
The Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, (MB), hopes to profit from popular disillusionment to win today’s (Nov 28) election. It may, indeed, in the end but right at the moment, it is given to disappointment as the protestors have expelled Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohamed El Beltagi from Tahrir Square. The youth appear unconvinced by anti-junta plank lately adopted by the Brotherhood.
Left leaning parties and groups like Revolutionary Socialists (RS), the Socialist Popular Alliance Party (SPAP) and the Egyptian Socialist Party (ESP) have propped up the military saying the revolution goals would be achievable by closing ranks with the army. Leader of the Revolutionary Socialists, Mustafa Omar, opined as early as May 31 thus: “despite its repressive measures, the Supreme Council (of the Armed Forces) understands that the January 25 uprising has changed Egypt once and for all in certain ways… The Council aims to reform the political and economic system, allowing it to become more democratic and less oppressive.”
The hope appears misplaced by the turn of events. Now all hopes are pinned on the elections. The election to Majlis al-Sha’ab, (People’s Assembly) -the Lower House of Parliament – is taking place in three stages. The first round of polling is spread over two days – Nov 28 and 29; the run off will take place on Dec 5 and 6. The second stage of election will also be a two-day affair on Dec 14 and 15 and the run off will be on Dec 21 and 22. The third and final stage of election will take place two days after the New Year Day on Jan 3 and 4; the run off will be held on Jan 10 and 11. Run-offs are assigned to the individual candidates who don’t receive over 50% of the votes in the first round.
The Majlis is a house of 508 members but balloting is limited to 498 seats and it is being conducted by both proportional representation and the First Past The Post system of single seat constituencies. The remaining ten seats will be filled by nomination.
The Shura Council (Consultative Council or the Upper House of Parliament) is slated for late January. Like in the case of Majlis, the Shura vote also will take place in three phases between 29 January and 22 February. Shura is a house of 270 seats. Election will however be limited to 180 seats; the remaining ninety seats will be filled by presidential nomination.
It will be the responsibility of Parliament to draft a new constitution and submit it to a referendum. Only then will presidential election be held, ‘no later than 30 June 2012’ according to Hussein Tantawi’s statement.
On Sunday, an alliance of parties like the SPAP, and the ESP, and liberal and Islamist groups decided to join the election fray. Elections are an important step towards ushering in functional democracy. This truism need not necessarily be true in the case of Egypt more so when the country’s economy is not good health and any bailouts will mean austerity that will make life miserable for the common people.
No surprise, therefore, a reality check shows that the downfall of Mubarak has not resolved any of the socio-economic and political issues staring at the people. Hopes pinned on the military as “protector of the revolution” and “caretaker of a democratic transition” are also being shattered.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) is widely seen as an extension of the Mubarak regime. Expansion of the emergency laws has not endeared the military rulers with the masses since they have been demanding the abolition of these very powers. Nor for that matter the crack down on Tahrir Square protestors in August.
