A declaration may come some time this week, around Nov 15 to be precise.  With post-war popularity waning and economic discontent taking roots, President Rajapaksa may have assessed that he cannot afford to wait for long as he is now in a position to gain overwhelming majority and shake off the burden of right wing alliance partners, Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP).  

The opposition has weighed that they have no chances of winning if the elections are held at this stage.  They are, therefore, gambling on creating a grand alliance and fielding Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Gen Sarath Fonseka since they see as the only person who could challenge the President.  

Fonseka, as the Army Chief, shares credit, along with President Rajapaksa and his Defence Secretary brother, for the victory in the Wanni War.   

The prospect of Fonseka joining politics to contest the Presidential race has jolted the ruling alliance.  This was not something that was factored in by President Rajapaksa in his consideration of advancing elections.
 
Ranil Wickremesinghe, leader of the opposition United National Party (UNP), has found a chance to allay with JVP and put up Gen Fonseka’s candidature against the President.  

In a press briefing on Oct 21, JVP leader KD Lalkanta disclosed that his party would be willing to admit Gen Fonseka as a party candidate or as a common candidate of the opposition for the Presidential elections.

While Gen Fonseka has yet not given his mind, President Rajapakse may also be apprehensive of external forces propping up Gen Fonseka.  The latter, on an official-cum-personal visit to the US, was scheduled to meet Assistant Secretary of State Robert Blake. The prospect of the meeting upset President Rajapaksa in the light of reports that the US State Department was pressing Gen Fonseka to depose against Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa for war crimes and human rights violations in the last days of the war against the LTTE.

Fonseka’s letter to this effect to Sri Lankan embassy in Washington has not made matters any easier.  President Rajapaksa’s suspicions of Fonseka’s intentions appear to have only become sharper.  

However, there was no such pressure from the US on Fonseka, who has just returned.
Amidst this suspicious atmosphere, the CDS was given additional charge of the Secretary to the Sports Ministry but Gen Fonseka excused himself saying that he would not be able to take any additional burden in view of already existing heavy load.

In a recent circular, the Sri Lankan government has banned participation of Defence officers in political parties.  Army spokesman Brig Udai Naanaykara issued a press release cautioning that legal action would be taken against those misusing the names of army commanders/personnel for any political gains.

It is learnt that Army Commander Lt Gen Jagat Jaisurya, while addressing officers of the army Hqrs on October 26, directed that no action be taken on direct orders issued by CDS.  His (Gen Fonseka’s) orders should be routed through the commander/army hqrs.

While the political manoeuvres and mutual suspicions continue, the government seems to be bent on curbing media criticism against the President or his reported differences with Gen. Fonseka.  

The Editor of the Sunday Leader Lalith Vikramatunge and six other journalists are reportedly picked up and put behind bars.  

The Rajapaksa government has unleashed a reign of terror on the media; any criticism of the government, defence forces and Presidential advisers invites heavy hand of the government. One editor was killed. Many others have been languishing in jails.  Several others have left the country to save themselves.