The issue of lifting the EU arms embargo on China has again come upfront marking Chinese Vice Premier Li Quaking’s visit to three European capitals. The ball was set rolling in a manner of speaking by Le Figaro with its report that the EU might lift the two-decade old arms embargo on China. The French daily quoted sources close to Catherine Ashton, the Vice President of the European Commission, who is also the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. However, nothing significant was announced as Li Quaking passed through Madrid, Berlin and London.
EU arms embargo on China was imposed in the aftermath of the infamous Tiananmen Square oppression in 1989. Chinese diplomacy has been campaigning for lifting of the embargo. Beijing contends that the arms embargo is a cold-war relic, anachronistic, and a barrier against a closer Sino-European relationship. Yet Brussels has remained unmoved, at least thus far.
Not that there were no solid foundations to the talk on lifting of arms embargo that accompanied Li Quaking’s visit this time. The speculation has its roots in the ever-bourgeoning EU-China trade. Official data for 2009 shows that trade in goods is now worth €296 billion and that services account for €31 billion.
Exports to China in H1 2010 rose 43%; Germany accounted for almost 50% of total; Ireland had trade surplus. Exports increased from €37bn in the first half of 2009 to €53bn in the first half of 2010 and imports rose from €103bn to 125bn. The trade deficit grew from €65bn to €71bn. China today is the second most important trading partner after the United States accounting for 8.5 per cent of EU27 exports and 17.8% of EU27 imports.
Among the EU member states, Germany (€25bn , 47 per cent) was by far the largest exporter to China in the first half of 2010, followed by France (€5bn , 10%) and Italy (€4bn , 8%). On imports, Germany (€29bn, 23% of EU imports) was also the largest importer, followed by the Netherlands (€21bn ,17%), the United Kingdom (€17bn, 13%) and Italy (€12bn, 10%).
EU27 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China was €5.3bn in 2009, compared with €6.7bn in 2006, €6.6bn in 2007 and €4.7bn in 2008, while Chinese direct investment into the EU27 stood at €0.3bn in 2009, compared with 2.2bn in 2006, 0.8bn in 2007 and a disinvestment of €0.1bn in 2008.
China is Europe’s largest exporter of manufactured products. It is also the fastest growing export market for European goods. And China has emerged as the saviour of Euro which is in pretty bad shape, though not in dire straits.
PIIGS, the acronym stands for Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain, looks to Beijing for their manna. These five EU nations are amongst the most-affected by currency crisis.
Says German Commentator, Wieland Wagner, ‘Given the acute debt crisis in the Euro zone, there is a wealth of opportunities for China to show sympathy in Europe these days’. Writing in Der Spiegel (in December) he said, “with pledges of financial aid and statements of support for the Euro, Beijing is endeavoring to stabilize its largest trading partner—primarily in pursuit of Chinese interests.’[1]
Secondly, the oxygen to speculation on EU- China arms deal came from Brussels’s new found love for silence on matters human rights vis-à-vis China. The EU Strategy Paper on China (2007-2013) remains silent on human rights situation. The subject did not even qualify a passing mention in the Joint Press Communiqué issued after the 13th EU-China Summit held in October last. The Presidents of European Commission and European Council, José Manuel Barroso and Herman Van Rompuy, made only oblique reference to HR in their statements after the EU-China summit.
‘As in any true partnership, the EU and China have commonalities but also differences of approach.’[2] These developments are considered significant as European Union views as the most important strategic partner in Asia besides Japan and India, and has created an institutional mechanism like annual summits and sectoral dialogues in areas like climate change, international security and human rights
Thirdly, the advocacy of Catherine Ashton to lift the arms embargo is no less strident. In her strategy paper to the EU summit, she described the embargo as a ‘major impediment in developing stronger EU-China co-operation on foreign policy and security matters’. And recommended that the arms embargo should be lifted. [3].
Thus enough home work was in place to arrive at a path-breaking decision in favour of China during Li Quaking’s European sojourn. The ‘non-action’ can be attributed to one of those diplomatic slips; it will by no means be pushed to the back burner. The Chinese diplomats will go into their characteristic overdrive to make their disappointment over continued arms embargo figure on the agenda of high-level bilateral meetings.
The Chinese diplomats may work to break the European unity through the PIIGS; they can also be expected to work their way through either small members or the new Central and East Europe (CCEC) entrants. EU watchers are surprised by the support to the China cause from Catherine Ashton. She is still relatively new to her job though she is said to be giving shape to the European External Action Service (EEAS), the ambitious common diplomatic service. The importance EU attaches to EEAS became clear five months ago in September when envoys were named to countries like China and Pakistan. These appointments clearly factored in the close bilateral relations of a member state or the EU’s security imperatives.[4]
So, the question that demands attention is: will the EEAS become a powerful foreign policy apparatus to arrive at a common EU position on crucial issues like the arms embargo on China, and thus influence major EU nations?
At least in the short run, it may not. Both Catherine Ashton and Herman van Rompuy, who are at the helm of EU foreign policy today, are relatively new comers. They were not widely known even beyond Brussels. The two were rewarded because of consensus in the 27-member body. In the EU scheme of things, consensus is often a mirage. Any deviation or change in EU foreign policy goals is not easy to achieve, certainly on a contentious issue like arms embargo to China which is not an economic issue at the core. So, China will have to demonstrate much more than financial prowess. It will have to bring to the table much more than market carrots if it wants to force a roll back of the arms embargo. [5],[6].
If the EU arms embargo is anachronistic, to quote the Chinese, issues like human rights and civil liberties in China are no less chronic, which China must address. In the scramble for higher GDP growth rates, Beijing has been neglecting basic things that make life for the average citizen a shade better. Unless it puts its own house in order, China cannot hope to really enjoy its status as an economic power house of the world, and derive consequent benefits. Till such time, it will have no nirvana from snubs like Nobel Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo, and arm twisting friends and allies from attending Nobel prize ceremonies will only bring more egg on the face.
And in the final analysis, EU will not take a final call alone; it will factor in the views of not only the United States but also Japan and India, who are also its strategic partners. So, it is going to be back to basics for China! Any doubts?
—Alok Rashmi Mukhopadhyay
[1]. Ashton names EU ambassadors, European Voice, Sept. 19, 2010.
http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/2010/09/ashton-names-eu-ambassadors/68862.aspx
5. EU-China Business Summit Joint Declaration
http://euchina.summitsfeb.be/about-euchina/presentation/
6. Joint Statement of the 12th EU-China Summit
http://www.china.org.cn/world/2009-11/30/content_18979511.htm
[1]. Wieland Wagner, Capitalizing on the Euro Crisis: China Expands Its Influence in Europe, Spiegel Online, Dec.14, 2010. http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,734323,00.html [1]. Remarks by Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council, and José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, following the EU-China summit, Brussels, Oct. 6, 2010.
[1]. Ashton pragmatic on China in EU foreign policy blueprint, EU observer, Dec.17, 2010.
