In a swift chain of events, K.P. Sharma Oli government has survived a scare for the present, courtesy, Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda, leader of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), UCPN –M, who took a U-turn on Thursday, May 5 from his stand announced a day earlier to withdraw support to the government and head the government himself with the support of Nepali Congress. This gave a breather to the Oli government but how long it would continue is anybody’s guess.
Hit by a massive earthquake last year Nepal was facing tardy and slow progress in relief and reconstruction work a year on with large chunks of quake affected population, particularly in rural areas still without any permanent roof on their head and a guaranteed source of income for survival. It is well known that political expediency always takes precedence with power hungry politicians and it is exactly what is happening in the Himalayan nation. Instead of joining hands to mobilize succour to the suffering humanity, they are busy trying to retain or grab power by hook or crook.
The demand for change of guard in Nepal was simmering for quite some time but it blew into a storm with the Nepali Congress and the seven party alliance of United Democratic Madeshi Front deciding on May 4 to support a government led by the United Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ replacing the Oil government. Nepali Congress leader Parkash Mahat said that his party decided to extend support to Prachanda after the UCPN (Maoist) leadership approached them seeking their support to form a new government. “We then started negotiations with the Maoists. After several rounds of talks, the two parties agreed to topple the (Oli) government,” he said.
Nepali Congress decision was conveyed to Prachanda by its President Sher Bahadur Deuba. In a quick turn of events, Dahal held meetings of his party office bearers and Standing Committee and issued a statement appealing to all parties, including the ruling alliance partners CPN (UML), the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party of Nepal and Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (democratic) to form a new government under his party’s leadership. He also conveyed Maoists decision to Prime Minister Oli who decided to state his response on the floor of Parliament. While thus Oli was pushed to the back foot, the main opposition Nepali Congress and the United Democratic Madeshi Front called for his immediate removal.
Earlier on Saturday April 30, all sorts of accusations were hurled at Oli during an all-party meeting convened by him. The charges ranged from incompetence, failure on all fronts, including not addressing the issues raised by Madhesi Front relating to federalism and not implementing the new Constitution in right earnest and making little effort to reach out succour to earthquake victims despite India and many other countries including the United States and China pledging large aid at Donors Conference last year. The Madhesi Front boycotted this meeting.
The budget session of Nepal Parliament has just begun and the President Vidya Devi Bhandari was to address the House on Sunday 8th May enunciating governments Policies and Programmes.
Why and how Prachanda changed his stance of pulling his party out of the ruling alliance is a matter for critical analysis by Nepal watchers, keeping in mind the influence outside forces exert in steering the destiny of the Himalayan nation. Bamdev Gautam, Vice Chairman of the CPN (UML), the second largest party in Nepal, which is heading the ruling coalition, is reported to have met Prachanda and persuaded him not to withdraw support to Oli government immediately. Following this a meeting of top leadership of the UCPN (Maoist) was held at the residence of Prachanda. It decided to continue in the ruling alliance for the present. Prachanda made a complete U-turn. He even told Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba that the Oli Government should be allowed to present its policies and programmes and the budget for the next financial year in Parliament.
“I could not persuade my friends. Thank you all for the proposal. New government could not be formed under my leadership at present,” he was quoted as telling Deuba by Nepali Congress leader Ramesh Lekhak. The Nepali Congress is dismayed and felt ditched by Prachanda whose clear cut change in stance has given a breather to the Oli government for the time being.
But how long this situation would continue is difficult to predict. The Nepali Congress despite being the largest party in Parliament with 196 members in a House of 601 cannot take the initiative of bringing a vote of no confidence even with the support of the Madhesi Front who number about 70. The ruling coalition has a clear majority. While CPN (UML) has members 175, UCPN (Maoist) has 80, RPP (Nepal) 24, and Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (Loktantrik) 14. It also enjoys the support of some fringe parties.
In such a scenario unless one of the two major parties in the ruling coalition decide to break, it would be impossible to topple the government. Moreover, the main opposition Nepali Congress and the Maoists have nothing in common except the desire to grab power riding on other’s shoulders. Understanding, if any between the Maoists and the CPN (UML), which is most likely, given the clear indication by the U-turn taken by the Maoists, could only bring a change of guard in Nepal in the foreseeable future. But nothing could be said so definitely as in politics, promises are made to break and it is more so in Nepal.
Addressing Parliament, Oli himself gave enough hints of dark clouds hovering over his government. He said he was ready for national consensus and change of the government. Neither he nor his party obstructs national consensus, he declared adding that national consensus should be based on national interest. However, scotching off the rumors of his resignation, Oli said “we have heard a lot of rumors and went after them. I was elected as Prime Minister through this Parliament and I will remain in this post as long as the Parliament wants.”
Nepali Congress and the United Democratic Madhesi Front refuse to take it lying low. The UDMF said their agitation for restructuring Federalism and 11- point demands would continue. Rajendra Mahto Sadbhawana Party President which is part of the UDMF said the Madeshi Morcha could lend issue based support to a new formation but Prime Minister Oli must go, whom he blamed of following pseudo nationalism and not being able to maintain cordial relations with Nepal’s neighbours. He also said that since February there was no blockade at check points at the border with India but people were still suffering shortages of essential supplies because of ill planning by the Oli government. Two other senior UDMF leaders Upendra Yadav and Mahanta Thakur are re also highly critical of Oli saying that his approach is very divisive.
People in Nepal had high hopes that the country would usher into a peaceful era once the new Constitution comes into force. But frustration grew hard, particularly in the Terai region when Constitution was promulgated on 20th September last year leading to nearly five – month long agitation by the Madhesi, Tharu, Janjatis, minorities and other marginalized classes demanding, among others creation of two federal units in the Terai region. Police excesses against the agitators had left more than 50 persons dead and scores injured.
Though Oli has invited the Madhesi leaders and others for talks, he gave no specific blue print as to how his government would proceed in the matter. Unless there is a tangible movement forward towards resolving the issues raised by nearly forty percent of country’s 28 million population, peace and stability in Nepal would remain a mirage.
– RC Saldi