What next is the question in Sri Lankan theatre. President Mahinda Rajapaksa has not revealed his cards as yet.
While the world has acknowledged that the Tigers are among the world’s most dangerous terrorist groups, Rajapaksa is appearing as no less ruthless by trampling press freedom, ignoring human rights, killing civilians in safe zones and firings at the Red Cross staff. The war-torn country needs a healing touch and not a round of chauvinistic jingoism.
The government’s failure on the political front has given a lease of life to a section of pro-LTTE diaspora. They have been lying low through out the military offensive. Now by putting their act together, they have held massive demonstrations in Washington, London and other world capitals and brought back human rights issues into focus. On its part, the LTTE has, by staging an aerial attack on Colombo (Feb 20), told the world that they should not be written off and that they are not ‘your bunch of thugs’, as The Economist called them.
The ethnic Tamils in Sri Lanka were never enamoured of LTTE, because of its ruthless character. Still, they may turn to LTTE as their last hope for their political rights unless President Rajapaksa acts swiftly and turns away from the authoritarian models of governance he had studied from close quarters during frequent visits to China.
Political stability and territorial integrity of Sri Lanka is as much in its interest as of its neighbourhood. These goals can be met only by bridging the ethnic divide and by reviving democratic institutions through respect for human rights and press freedom.
First and foremost Rajapaksa should address the concerns of some 250000 Tamils trapped in a 100 sq mile area still held by the Tigers in northeastern Sri Lanka. India has offered to facilitate their rescue. The UN and other global agencies have come forward to help in relief and rehabilitation. But the President has shut his doors to all international aid, saying Colombo will handle the task all by itself. And the track record is any thing that gives comfort to the beleaguered people. His stand made him a darling of the Sinhala Chauvinists and paid rich divided in the elections to two provincial councils in the Sinhala heartland.
LTTE air show over Colombo may not mean much in terms of defence strategies. If anything it resulted in the loss of two light aircraft though it gave a photo-ops to Velupillai Prabhakaran to appear before his faithful flanked by the pilots as they were sent on suicide mission. The fact is he is very much weakened. Sri Lanka army’s victories have exposed the limits of any guerrilla movement. Large scale replenishments only can bring Tigers to life. It looks unlikely. And sooner than later they will degenerate into a multiple groups to harass the police and the army alike. This prognosis depends on how Colombo handles the days ahead.
Right at the moment, the initiative is slipping out of the Sri Lankan government. LTTE political head B. Nadesan urged Sunday Feb 22 the international community to ‘affect a ceasefire and initiate a political solution as a priority than insisting LTTE to lay down arms’. "When a permanent political solution is reached for the Tamil people, with the support and the guarantee of the international community, the situation will arise where there will be no need for the arms of the LTTE”, he told the heads of the Co-chair countries.
