A great deal of money has been sent to Afghanistan from Islamic countries, most of which is used to build mosques and purchase weapons and ammunition, or “Quranic shipping containers,” as dubbed by exiled Afghan leaders. Indeed, the Islamist axis is steadily growing stronger.

Three circles of power operate in Afghanistan: the religious groups, the tribal groups, and the civic-national groups. It is often claimed that investing in the religious groups strengthens the connection to Pakistan; investing in the civic-national groups strengthens the connection to India and will provide the (sole) basis for building a civil society with a good future foundation for the growth of the democratic model; and investing in tribal groups will strengthen the connection to Iran. However, there are some tribal leaders who are distinguished precisely by their civic work for their communities and tribes and even for the national interest as they understand it.

Afghanistan’s borders with Iran and Pakistan are porous. The border with Pakistan can be penetrated by al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Afghanistan’s neighbours are successfully taking advantage of the conflicts in the periphery and the inter-tribal rivalry. Ajmal Khan Zazai, a leader of the Pashtun tribe – which sees itself as the descendant of the lost tribes and even calls itself “sons of Moses” – is from a province in the southeast of the country with a population of 2.5 million, one of thirty-four Afghan provinces. Forty-two years old, Zazai is a reformist whose father was murdered when he opposed the Taliban. His supporters hope that his movement, UAT (United Afghan Tribes), will be the main axis for changing the government and uniting the tribes. He also suggests that the tribes be armed in order to thwart the Taliban and secure hundreds of kilometres of border with Iran and Pakistan. He is seeking humanitarian aid in order to improve infrastructures, employment, education, and sanitation, and he has called for a government without corruption.

The Spill over of Religious Fundamentalism to Pakistan: Because of the proximity of northern Pakistan to southern Afghanistan and their identical ethnic, geographic, and tribal characteristics, it is natural that the Afghan Taliban finds shelter in the border region with Pakistan. The continuing war on terror against the Taliban has propelled troops to cross over into Pakistan, and Islamabad does not prevent them from entering. Pakistan has an interest in strengthening religious fundamentalist forces to prevent the tribal and nationalist forces that are interested in closer ties with India, at the expense of Pakistan, from being strengthened.

It is clear to everyone that the future of Afghanistan must be determined by the internal political players, and not by a policy dictated from outside. Any policy formulated by internal political forces, together with NATO and the United States, is doomed to failure. Nevertheless, it is also clear that the pace of the allies’ withdrawal depends on the achievements in the war on terror on the one hand, and on political agreements and understandings between the United States, the Taliban, and the Karzai government, on the other.

In the past, Pakistan was the base for the training, instruction, and funding of Afghan mujahidin forces in their war against the Soviet occupation. Most bloggers anticipate two possible scenarios for the day after the withdrawal: