The low turn out in the second parliamentary election in Afghanistan was expected. So the near 40 per cent voting did not come as a surprise. But what did make observers raise eyebrows in disbelief is the low incidence of violence in both the Talibanised south and the North where the Taliban is making its presence felt these past few months. The run up to the ballot on September 18 saw the Taliban hold out public threats and distribute leaf lets at mosques asking people to care for their lives. There were also as many as 150 attacks on NATO as also soft targets.
Yet on the all-important day, the Taliban did not stage a single dramatic strike at any of the 5,816 polling booths set up covering an estimated 3.6 million voters, as the Los Angles Times reported with unsuppressed glee. The question is why.
It is tempting to argue that the Taliban has seen the futility of its anti-ballot campaign and reserved its fire power for a bright sunny day. This thesis banks on the reality that besides NATO’s International Security Assistance Force, nearly 300,000 Afghan police officers and soldiers were on high alert to make the election a success and to pave the way for taking Kabul closer to Washington’s goal of pull out next year. There is some merit in the argument.
Across Afghanistan, intimidation of rival candidates and voters was not the handiwork of Taliban alone. Local power brokers and war lords aligned with the Karzai camp indulged in the practice quit often unmindful of the presence of poll monitors and election officials. This phenomenon contributed no less to the decline in the turn out this year, though the Afghan Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak would like the world to believe that the propaganda of the enemy affected the psyche of the people.
As of now there is no authentic assessment on the extent of fraud and poll related irregularities. It may be available by the time the results to the 249-member the Wolesi Jirga (lower house of Parliament) are announced some time in the first week of October. Even then the full extent of fraud may not be known for a long, long time. There were fewer poll observers when compared to the Presidential election held in August last year. It was also marred by allegations of fraud and questions on the legitimacy of the result to the discomfort of President Hamid Karzai.
Significantly, the election coincided with a new operation in the Afghan South. Its focus is on capturing the rural areas west of Kandahar which are known as granaries. The belt is also known for poppy cultivation under the control and command of the Taliban and its allies. Narcotics are a big money earner for the Islamist militants. So, with the home turf thus under attack, it is possible the Taliban is busy putting up its defenses and paid no more than proforma attention to the ballot. Otherwise it is difficult to explain why it staged fewer attacks – 309 incidents, 11 civilian deaths, and three policemen killed that too in 17 of the country’s 34 provinces now compared with 479 attacks, 31 civilian deaths, and death of 18 Afghan police and eight Afghan soldiers in August last year.
A Washington Post report said the operation with about 20,000 coalition forces has boosted security in Kandahar and government influence in some areas outside it. A security ring of checkpoints and walls around the city has led to increased commerce. In the Argandhab Valley, a key entry point into Kandahar city, Afghan officials have now taken control of about 85 percent of the territory, up from about 50 percent, going by statements attributed to Brig. Gen. Frederick "Ben" Hodges, the deputy coalition commander in southern Afghanistan.
This is the second time that NATO is making a bid to capture the Taliban home turf.
Accounts from the front-line say it is a slow-moving operation. The thrust is not on chasing but capturing the insurgent. So the effort and effect will unfold gradually. There are bound to be some setbacks with some spectacular strikes. As a military expert says, Kandahar is not an easy province to conquer. It is here that Taliban movement took its birth in 1994 at Zhari that takes pride in its grapes. Washington doesn’t want to collect sour grapes. That much is clear from the official pronouncements from the White House and the commander it listens to namely, Gen. David H. Petraeus. Both expect the Christmas to bring in good news. If the hope materializes, that will set the stage to fine tune the plans for American pull out.
Against the backdrop of these grand strategies, the September 18 ballot becomes crucial. And the assertion of Gen Petraeus that the people of Afghanistan sent ‘a powerful message today’ becomes significant. By no stretch of imagination, the voice of Afghanistan’s should not belong to the Islamist extremists and terror networks. It belongs to the people of the country. Whatever be the percentage of turnout, it demonstrates the courage of Afghans, who are fiercely independent and refuse to be subdued.
Two caveats will be in order at this stage. Not two but three in fact.
First all military ops should respect human rights and the Afghan sentiments. The NATO track record thus far is not very illuminating. Now, the US soldiers are credited with randomly targeting and killing the Afghan civilians last winter. The executioners of the savage plan first created a ruse, enjoyed a shooting spree, photographed the dead civilians, dismembered the corpses, and hoarded the skull and bones probably as souvenirs. This is not the way to win the hearts of Afghans. The 21st century world expects the Americans to put to best use the lessons learnt the hard way in the Viet-Kong killing fields. A postmortem is neither here nor there. Loud protestations will bring no brownie points either. Promises of good conduct have been one too many and inspire no more confidence
Second caveat is that the US should refrain from undermining the authority of Hamid Karzai’s government in Kabul. Karzai’s is not the ideal administration. Nor is he the most ideal leader for a war ravaged country which remains the battle field for so many proxies. Half his time is spent in survival battles and remaining half neutralizing the opponents. Corruption is a fact of Afghan society. It is not the invention of the Karzai regime. It was there when the Soviets tanks were stationed in Kabul. It was there when King Zahir Shah ruled the country. Frequent references to governance deficit or corruption will not lead the US anywhere.
Ham-handed approach to men and matters Afghan as witnessed in the case of Kabul bank will compound problems. As Andrew Higgins said in the Washington Post, the Kabul Bank crisis was a debacle Washington hoped wouldn’t happen, but helped create it with its push for a clean up unmindful of the fact that Kabul Bank is a rare Afghan success story. It has set up a nationwide network of branches with 1.4 million customers and introduced Internet banking. Its undoing was involvement in political funding.
Third and most important caveat relates to the continued indulgence with Islamabad. What is that X-factor that makes the US to refrain from calling a spade a spade when it comes to Pakistan? Stupidity is not the hallmark of American intelligence set up though they have a litany of failed missions and blotched plots. More over, with or without the WikiLeaks, there is so much on record to show that Pakistan has been double crossing America.
Pakistan’s interest, as a sovereign nation, to have a strategic depth in Afghanistan is perfectly understandable. What is not understandable is Washington’s unwillingness to check Pakistan in its tracks even after the Times Square plot; and after Peshawar rolled out fake voter cards in thousands. The belief that Pakistan is the window to the Muslim world is a misplaced optimism. Otherwise why there is such a poor response from fellow Muslim countries to appeals from the flood-ravaged Pakistan.
Post elections, Afghanistan should not be allowed to be the theatre of the absurd. Certainly, after it has been established that Pakistan has tried to sabotage the vote with its bogus voter identity cards. Time has come for the United States to explore other options without delisting Pakistan. Nuclear Iran may give nightmares but engaging Tehran in the Afghan enterprise will prove fruitful in the short to near term. Iran has a stake in the well-being of Afghanistan. Giving it its due will be a good ego-massage. Simultaneously other ‘de jure’ players from Central Asia and South Asia should be brought upfront for success on the Afghan theatre.
Afghanistan’s is a political problem. It is also an economic problem. These twin problems are compounded by terrorism, which is an export from across its southern borders. Talking to the so-called good Taliban and hoping to install a broad based government with the Taliban as one of the constituents is only Plan – A. It has the potential to take the Americans tantalizingly close to their goal post earlier than they expected but it is pregnant with all possibilities. One such possibility is failure. In fact, failure is inherent in Plan-A.
Taliban is a reality. It cannot be wished away. Also a reality is the fact that the Taliban had tasted power once in Kabul, and used the occasion to herald the prospects of recreating a new global golden Khilafat with its unadulterated adherence to Sharia. After it lost Kabul, it became the defacto ruler of Pakistan’s tribal belt and is engaged in its unfinished mission through various proxies. Is there any one out there willing to be the underwriter of good behaviour of Taliban? Did any one conduct due diligence of Taliban accounts because that is what is the first step for M& A (mergers and acquisitions). Put differently, there is a blind turning ahead. And there is no fall-back option, Plan-B, in sight.
