There are no fair, pre-defined rules that dictate how the Sept 23 Presidential election will be held in the Maldives. Only a concerted global pressure on Abdulla Yameen regime can pave the way for a level-playing field at the ballot box.
After two more snubs – one by the United Nations, and the other by India, the Abdulla Yameen regime has decided to call for Presidential ballot. And the Election Commission, which is being accused of siding with the President, has set September 23 as day of voting.
It is unclear at this stage whether Yameen’s challenger, and former President, Mohamed Nasheed, will be able to take part in the election. About a month ago, the Election Commission said candidates convicted of criminal charges were not eligible to enter the fray.
If the poll body sticks to this decree, both Nasheed, who is presently in exile following a 2015 sentence for 13 years on trumped up terrorism charges, and other Opposition leaders stand barred from contesting.
Only a week back, members of the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) had endorsed Nasheed as their presidential candidate.
There are no fair, pre-defined rules that dictate how the election will be held, as Nasheed told The Hindu in Colombo, his second perch after London. Instead, the EC and other institutions make up the rules as they go, such as trying to ban the MDP primary contest, to favour President Yameen. In his view, only a concerted global pressure on Yameen can pave the way for a level-playing field in the island nation.
There is no official backgrounder on Presidential Poll schedule. It is possible that President Yameen’s decision was prompted by the ignominious defeat Maldives had suffered on Friday, 8th June, at the United Nations in its quest for a 2-year term in the Security Council.
Maldives and Indonesia had contested for a non-permanent member seat but in the plenary session held at the UN headquarters (New York), Indonesia won the seat by securing 144 votes against 46 for the Maldives.
It is not known whether India voted for or against the Maldives. The Ministry of External Affairs maintained a studied silence on the subject with an official source quoted as saying that New Delhi “rarely makes public announcement on this kind of issues.”
Also no less significant is the 4th June denial of entry into India for Maldives leader, Ahmed Nihan, who is considered to be a close aide to President Abdulla Yameen. He flew into Chennai from Colombo at around 10 pm but was not allowed to step on the Indian soil; he was made to return home, according to a post on his Twitter handle @ahmed_nihan in Dhivehi.
Well, India has not officially commented on this denial either; the decision does not come as a surprise given the strains in bilateral ties.
Nihan is the parliamentary group leader of the ruling Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM). He is also majority leader of the current parliament. He is said to be travelling to India twice every year for medical check-up for the past two years. It is for the first time that India has shut its doors on him.
These twin developments could have spurred President Yameen to announce elections without much ado. Also by the apparent limits of the China card that he has been playing with in recent months, after jettisoning the promised “India first” policy.
The Friendship Bridge, Laamu Atoll (where the Chinese are said to be planning a port) Link Road, and other mega projects that China has kicked off in the Maldives are an open invitation to debt burden. There is no free lunch with the Bamboo capitalist, as Sri Lanka and Pakistan in South Asia and several countries in Africa have learn the hard way.
The announcement on election comes months after the Maldives experienced political unrest, sparked by a Supreme Court ruling in February, which overturned criminal convictions of Nasheed and eight other dissident leaders. The CJs order was nullified by other judges later. This period saw jittery President Yameen impose a 45-day Emergency, jail the Chief Justice and former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.
This formed the backdrop for India’s frosty relation with the Maldives. New Delhi has expressed dissatisfaction on the law and order situation as well as on the imposition of a state of emergency. The Maldives is the only SAARC member- state that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not visited.
-by Malladi Rama Rao