Has India cocked a snook at the US by clinching a crucial $5.4 billion s-400 Triumf missile defence system with Russia that can potentially place India under severe US sanctions under CAATSA? It appears so at the outset.
A narrative is being circulated to demonstrate how ‘independent’ India is in doing trade with Russia despite a looming US threat of sanctions. The US sanctions will kick in only on November 4 but India seems sure of being given a waiver by President Donald Trump.
Of course, it could all go wrong, given the unpredictable ways of Trump who does not hesitate to profess his ‘love’ for India and its prime minister, Narendra Modi, while not sparing criticism of the country for its trade and tariff practices that irk him. He has called India ‘Tariff King’.
But there are reasons to believe that Trump will not derail the India-Russia deal. The US seemed to have signalled in advance its approval of the missile deal ahead of its signing during a low-key two-day Putin’s visit to India in the last week of September. The US stand was not made publicly known perhaps to avoid similar demands being made by some other countries who want to continue trading with Russia—and also to convince India about US ‘sincerity’ in wooing India.
The waiver, as and when it comes, for the Russian missile defence system will be a one-time exception. But India is also hoping that the US will also not apply full sanctions in some oil-related related deals with Iran, one of the countries along with Russia, and China facing the full fury of maverick Trump. But India may not make a big issue should the US veto oil trade with Iran.
What is of more importance for India, as far as Iran is concerned, is the completion of the Chabahar port
that will open a trade route to land-locked Afghanistan and the territories beyond. At the moment, the US position about Chabahar is clouded in uncertainty.
The incorporation of the Russian missile system—after about two years—would make the country much more secure than it is at present.
It looked as though India was signing a deal with Russia in a hush-hush manner. Putin arrived in New Delhi to a warm reception but there was no guard of honour in the forecourt of Rashtrapati Bhavan. Putin did not pay floral tributes at the Rajghat. There was no stately banquet for him. In short, he came, he talked and quietly returned to freezing Moscow to face the blast
from the US, the UK and other Western countries.
The Americans, still not rid of their habit of telling others what is right and wrong for them, cannot be happy when such a leader receives a warm welcome in a ‘friendly’ country. But the US has already annoyed many of its old and traditional allies and friends. Why should it antagonize a
newly acquired friend like India for doing something that after all, poses no threat to the US? The Russian missile defence system is clearly designed to protect India from threats from China and Pakistan; neither of the two is looked benignly by the US.
What could have perhaps prevented the US from thinking of using CAATSA against India was the near certainty of striking more lucrative defence deals with India, worth many more billions of dollars than the ‘paltry’ $5.4 billion s-400 Triumf order India is placing on Russia.
What it all boils down to it is that the US gains by keeping its eyes and mouth shut on India’s missile defence deal with Russia.