As Pakistan plunges deeper into serious economic crisis the Rawalpindi- based GHQ Shura has tightened the noose over Prime Minister Imran Khan with no overt protests of murmur. Imran has been beholden to the men in Khaki for propelling him into power; now he is surrendering even his token power to the generals for his survival. The appointment of a National Economic Council that has the army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa as a member will bring Pakistan under virtual military rule.
Well, for the record, the Prime Minister heads the NEC and a number of senior ministers and civilian officials are among its 13 members—apart from the army chief. But nobody need be fooled by the fact that being heavily outnumbered by civilians, the army chief will not be able to prevail.
Appointment of an NEC is fairly common in most countries of the world. But there is no other democracy that has the army chief sitting in it. A question that immediately springs up is why should it be necessary for the army chief of Pakistan to be part of the NEC when he is already considered the most powerful man in the country? Well, just to make sure that the army chief has everything in his grip!
Given the deep financial straits of Pakistan with no immediate and easy way out visible, it would have looked more appropriate if the NEC had included some top economists. But the problem is that economists tend to tender advice that militates against populism. Being still new in office, Imran Khan is stuck in the populist mode as his recent budget proposals show.
Just before the budget presentation, Imran announced that the military had agreed to volunteer a small cut. The much hyped announcement, notwithstanding the budget did not show any cut in the military expenditure. It shows that no matter what happens to the country’s economy any effort to fix it cannot begin with the military budget.
Official stand is that the NEC has been formed to revive and accelerate economic growth. It will also review ways for better coordination with the provinces, formulate policies and strategies for development, provide better guidance for regional cooperation and approve long-term planning for national and regional connectivity—which obviously alludes to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which does not seem to be proceeding smoothly.
In short, the message is that micromanagement of economy and governance will be carried out by the newly-minted NEC But in reality it will spread the powers of the army over almost every matter relating to governance of the country. On paper, the army chief may be only one of its 13 members but it is hard to see anyone not agreeing to what he says or express disagreement with him. It will indeed be a very different, unrecognizable ‘naya’ (new) Pakistan where the army chief becomes subservient to the civilians.
Frankly, given the reality of Army’s shadow over his government, Imran Khan could not have conceived of an NEC without the prior approval of the army chief, and his GHQ Shura. It serves as a nice façade to pretend that the affairs of Pakistan are to be run with the advice of a group of civilians that dilutes the role of the army, the de facto ruler of the country almost since the birth of the land of the pure, as Pakistan styles itself.
Before coming to power last year, Imran Khan had bragged that Pakistan would never ‘beg’ before international bodies like the IMF but his government did just that – groveling before the Bretton Wood twins for a badly needed bail out.
‘Friends’ of Pakistan, the few that it has, like Saudi Arabia and China offered a helping hand but could not keep Pakistan out of the woods. Unrest is increasing from Peshawar to Karachi. Lawyers and students are on the war path. So are the Opposition parties. Former president Asif Ali Zardari of PPP and ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of PML-N have warned of mass movement in a clear signal that Imran Khan has failed to energize the country’s faltering economy. The Opposition is being managed with a heavy hand that can lead to civil strife.
Civil unrest is not something with which Pak army is unfamiliar. In fact, the army had propped up Imran Khan after engineering a civil unrest in 2017 to oust Nawaz Sharif who clearly could not contain an agitation backed by the army. It is no secret that the Khakis themselves found a way out to end it. Well, the ‘truce’ was brokered by the GHQ.
The army man who was assigned the task of brokering that peace deal was Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed. He has just been appointed the chief of the spy agency, ISI, by shunting Lt. Gen. Asim Munir who had an unusually brief stint of eight months, to a field posting. Hameed is not rated among the bright generals of Pakistan but he has the advantage of being close to Gen Bajwa. The quip in political circles is that Hameed has helped Bajwa to keep a hand on the political pulse of Pakistan.
Now to the question: why Bajwa desires a close vigil over the civilian government when the prime minister is army’s ‘man’. The military seems to fear that with his growing unpopularity Imran Khan can become unpredictable and unreliable. Hence, the need to closely manage the dynamics of domestic politics.
Gen Bajwa is due to retire in November. He may be given an extension. He is reported to have told some friends that he wants to stay on in his post for at least another year. Imran Khan may have made the phrase ‘Naya Pakistan’ popular but Bajwa thinks that he is indispensable for the creation of a new Pakistan.
Most Pakistani army chiefs have believed that they are indispensible for the country’s progress. Some of them like Gen Zia-ul Haq and Gen Pervez Musharraf got so carried away that they had to stage coups. Takeover by the men in Khaki looks difficult in the present circumstances. So the next best thing is to seize the reins covertly.
– By Allabaksh