There is no gainsaying that tension-free relationship with China benefits India meet its aspirations to be a great power, but it will continue to look like a mirage as long as Chinese continues to make claims over Indian territories. Of course, it will be good for both countries if they do not allow the pestering old issues to stand in the way of a calibrated uptick in their relations.
After meeting her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi in Beijing on April 24, external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj announced that the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi will have an ‘informal summit’ with the Chinese President, Xi Jinping in Wuhan, capital of the central Chinese province of Hubei on April 27-28. The Chinese foreign minister, while endorsing Swaraj’s statement, sounded rather unusually exuberant for a Chinese leader in emphasizing the need for the two countries to work on their ‘commonalities’. He added that the Chinese Dragon and the Indian Elephant should be dancing together. Indian ears are more familiar with harsh and threatening words coming from Chinese leaders. Sushma Swaraj was equally effusive.
There is no gainsaying that tension-free relationship with China benefits India meet its aspirations to be a great power, but it will continue to look like a mirage as long as the two countries fail to resolve the mother of all problems between them: the dispute over demarcating the border, including Chinese claims over Indian territories. Of course, it will be good for both countries nevertheless if they do not allow the pestering old issues to stand in the way of a calibrated uptick in their relations.
China has repeated many times that it will make no ‘compromise’ on its stand on the border issue with India. China will not change its stance on various territorial disputes that include its virtual takeover of the South China Sea, disregarding claims of its neighbours and even international adjudication. There is not even a remote hint that China is prepared to put in the cold storage its demand for Arunachal Pradesh in order to pursue ‘peace and friendship’ with India. There will be always be a Damocles’ Sword hanging over India.
It needs to be pointed out that China softened a bit towards India after New Delhi reversed in late February an earlier decision on participating in events marking 60 years of Dalai Lama’s exile in India. The Doklam crisis may have been resolved but there are frequent reports of Chinese military and other activities close to the Indian border.
From the statements of Swaraj and Wang it appears that the two countries have agreed to cooperate on the following issues: counter-terrorism, climate change, sustainable development and healthcare. China has also agreed to share river flow data with India. Important as these issues are, it cannot be said that they matter more than the resolution of the border dispute—and the China-Pakistan nexus that is clearly aimed at India.
Counter-terrorism for China does not mean doing something to actively discourage Pakistan from using terrorism against India. India and China have been on the same page on the climate change issue. Cooperation on sustainable development and healthcare etc is possible even if bilateral ties are not very friendly.
On the other hand, China has given enough indication that it will be interested in any significant investment in India unless India joins its showpiece called One Belt One Road of which China Pakistan Economic corridor is a significant part. By the way, what happened to the announcement of $20 billion investment in India made by the Chinese President when he was on the banks of the Sabarmati River in 2014?
It is noticeable that the Chinese manage to ensure that mutual differences with India will not stand in the way of vitiating the atmosphere at any high-level meeting in their country which might be attended by the Indian prime minister. Wrinkles have been ironed out—temporarily, no doubt—in India-China relations before the ‘informal summit’ towards the end of the week. It is a scene no different from other summits in China, like G-20 or BRICS, attended by the Indian prime minister. More importantly, these meetings saw no hiccups for the host, unlike a BRICS summit in Goa where the Chinese—and Russians—refused to share the Indian point on terrorism. As late as April, Wang, who was waxing eloquent on the need for friendship between India and China, had cancelled a visit to India, to suggest that Beijing remains sullen with India after the Doklam stand-off.
–by Tushar Charan