As if on cue, in interviews, opinion articles and talk shows, a diverse range of people are denouncing Zardari as a corrupt and indifferent ruler. They accuse him of living in splendid isolation in luxury while his country battles Islamist extremists, energy and food shortages and a host of other problems. The law and order situation is so bad that even the schools were asked to close down and no body felt safe with extremists hitting the military/civilian targets at will all over the country.  There is political turmoil not only in Baluchistan where the government is seriously trying to pacify the Baluchis with   a package ‘Aghaz-e-Haqooqe Balochistan’, but also in the Sindh, the home province of president Zardari where the demand for independence is catching up with Awami Tehreek planning a long march in Karachi. Even Punjab is a cause of concern for the Pakistani administration as it predominantly Punjabi based Taliban is spreading its wings across the country.

There is a sense that the Government is adrift and rudderless at a time the nation needs strong leadership.  Zardari is widely seen as using his power for personal benefits.  He has alienated the best people and filled his cabinet with those who sit around waiting for orders.  There is huge disillusionment amongst the people who had pinned high hopes on the spouse of the Daughter of the East, as Benazir Bhutto used to style herself.  Zardari was known as “Mr. Ten Percent” when his wife was Prime Minister in the 90s.  He was accused of orchestrating kickback schemes and spent nearly eight years in prison though he was never convicted of a crime.

At least at the moment Zardari cannot be prosecuted on any past charges – immunity he gained under a provisional constitutional change decreed by his predecessor, General Pervez Musharraf before leaving office.   Parliament unexpectedly did not give the decree its seal of approval on National Reconciliation Order (NRO) as the ordinance is called, and allowed it to lapse on November 28, 2009.

Legally speaking, now, the Supreme Court led by the iconoclastic Chief Justice, whose reinstatement Zardari fought to prevent, could declare his election illegal and re-open cases against him and some of his aides.  Probably, Zardari may not be returned to jail but the specter of prosecution could deal Zardari a fatal political blow, leaving leaders scrambling to form a new Government in the middle of war against terrorism in Waziristan

 In a country which lives on doles from America, leadership is suspect in public eyes if it cozies upto the United States of America. Unfortunately for Zardari, just as was the case with his predecessor, Gen Musharraf, public perception is that he is too close to the United States.  And, notwithstanding denials almost every day from Washington, most Pakistanis are convinced the United States wants to take over their country and use the anti-terrorism plank as a ruse to seize Pakistan’s nuclear arsenals.

The present crises, persisting for the past one and a half years of “revived democracy”, seems to be taking the country to square one – the return of the Army although General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani shows no sign of eagerness to take  over the reins.  The present crisis has been precipitated in a way by the Army itself – first by snubbing Zardari for his eagerness to do business with India  he had said trade with India should take precedence over every other bilateral issue), and second by publicly ticking him off over the L-K aid bill before US Congress.

The Army Chief maintains contacts with anti-Zardari politicians including Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, who is also making distinctive efforts to create a rapport with Nawaz Sharif.   It may be true that Gilani was handpicked by Zardari for the job but in politics there are no permanent friends as the career graph of Gilani shows. He has been closing ranks with Nawaz League, anti-Zardari forces and the army. In fact, the dapper prime minister has emerged as an acceptable PPP face. Unlike Zardari, Gilani enjoys full confidence of the Army.  This is what has made him to nudge publicly Zardari to surrender his powers even on Nuclear button. Any how, with Justice Chaudhary as the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Zardari will not dare to invoke his constitutional power to sack Gilani.  

The power struggle within Pakistani civil and military establishments is complicating America’s policies in Af-pk region. Washington is gamely continues to step up pressure on Pakistan to expand its fight against Taliban and Al-Qaida militants.  

Pakistan has faced a surge of attacks, mostly in or near the north-western city of Peshawar since the Army went on the offensive against the Pakistani Taliban in their South Waziristan bastion near the Afghan border in October, 2009. The US has welcomed the offensive but is also keen to see Pakistan tackle Afghan Taliban factions in lawless enclaves along the border to the extent that President Obama  made it conditional for Pakistan that US would not send additional troops to Afghanistan unless Pakistan tackled Afghan Taliban as well.

Zardari will not want (dare?) to fire Army Chief for he understands the consequences. Therefore, there is a stalemate and no clear leadership.   Both Zardari and Gen Kayani fear the charismatic Nawaz Sharif and are therefore sticking together in a bid to thwart any power play he might attempt. It however does not mean that President Zardari wants Sharif to share power with.   It would thus appear that Zardari is presently powerless not being able to remove the Army chief or his own Prime Minister. On the other hand there is a big question mark over his own survival.  

Put differently, Pakistan political scene in Pakistan is pregnant with various possibilities, strongest being the return of Army. In a manner of speaking, army under even Kayani has not stayed away from the corridors of power. That perhaps suits the Americans also. For a chaotic Pakistan would not really be beneficial to US efforts to wriggle out of Afghanistan unscathed in the short to medium term.