India and Kazakhstan are involved in the on-going reconstruction effort in Afghanistan since stability in Kabul is crucial for the region. On its part, Kazakhstan is the only Central Asia nation to have offered help to Afghanistan. The aid includes a US $50 million grant for education. India’s assistance is worth US $1.3 billion, most of it for the development of infrastructure. Both countries should explore new areas for joint cooperation in Afghanistan.
‘Qualified specialists in the field of economy, industry, finance transport and education stand ready to offer advice and assistance to Afghanistan’, says Kazakh scholar Marat Naribayev. In his view, Kazakhstan can promote the development and reconstruction of communications and the exploitation of Afghanistan’s oil and gas reserves.
At the multilateral level Kazakhstan has taken a major initiative for security dialogue with the formation of Conferences on Interactions and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) with the involvement of several countries including India. CICA forum facilitates frank discussions on security issues of concern.
There are already two regional groupings – Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Both groupings do not comprise of all the countries whose interests are directly affected by the prevailing instability in the region. This is where CICA scores high.
The SCO has set up an “Afghan Contact Group” and in March 2009 organized a special conference on Afghanistan. The SCO has planned to establish an “anti-narcotic and financial security belts” in the region. At this juncture of its evolution the SCO is, however, a defensive grouping. The mechanism at its disposal is the Regional Anti Terrorist Structure (RATS), a coordinating centre for sharing of intelligence, information and experience. The SCO has also held military exercises.
The CSTO is a defence alliance consisting of some countries of the post-Soviet space. All the Central Asian countries except Turkmenistan are members. The CSTO has a Joint Rapid Reaction Force for emergency duty. Expectedly, Russia plays a leading role in CSTO and has established substantial military presence in the region.
CSTO’s chief concern is protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its member-nations. While military presence is essential to meet non-traditional threats, it is equally essential to ensure better control and management, and uniformity of rules. To what extent these regional groupings will be able to ensure stability in the region is a moot question.
Though North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been engaged in the war against terrorism in Afghanistan for a decade, insurgency has neither been defeated nor destroyed or dismantled. It has only been weakened. The non-traditional threats continue to pose grave danger. With decisive combat activity under way in FATA many groups are reported to have relocated themselves in Tajikistan.
INSURGENCY SPREADING TO CENTRAL ASIA
For India, Central Asia is a part of its extended strategic neighborhood. Central to Indian concerns is the apprehension that Pakistan would seek to acquire “strategic depth” vis-à-vis India by bringing Central Asian States (CAS) within the fold of Islam. The beginning of the Tajik civil war and the capture of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan were perceived as part of Pakistan’s larger game to create a Strategic Integrated Region.
Indian concerns were eased when Central Asian leaders declared their intention to build modern secular and social-political and economic order. During his visit to India in 1992 President Nazarbayev stated: “It is vital for Kazakhstan to ensure that there is no overdose of religious indoctrination”.
Although Kazakhstan has not experienced a single incident of violence that may be attributed o Islamic radicalism, the challenge, nevertheless cannot be discounted. Several foreigners have been found fomenting violence or promoting radicalism in the county and all of them had been deported.
Kazakhstan’s key concern is the stability within and outside its border. Three CAS namely, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan share borders with Afghanistan. All these three states also share the Fergana Valley which has always been a stronghold of religious orthodoxy and conservatism.
External impulses of religious extremism and terrorism emanating from Afghanistan could destabilize the Fergana Valley. The repercussions of such a development would be felt in the Central Asian region.
During the Taliban’s hey days in Kabul, Fergana Valley witnessed an upsurge in extremist groups and organizations. Prominent among these groups were the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), an affiliate of Al Qaeda and the Hizb –ut- Tahrir.
The IMU had carried out a series of blasts in Uzbekistan. It also made an attempt on the life of the President Islam Karimov. IMU was also involved in abductions and drug trade. A faction of IMU led by Tahir Yuldashev operates from the borders lands of Afghanistan-Pakistan.
With the War on Terrorism entering a decision phase, there is a strong possibility that the extremist groups and organization located in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) and POK are likely to shift base to Tajikistan. The Gorno-Badksham region of Tajikistan offers a perfect hide out to extremists and terrorists. Such a development would only add to Tajikistan’s vulnerabilities and could affect the Fergana Valley.
India and Kazakhstan are aware of the grim possibilities. However, Kazakhstan’s prime concern at the moment is the narco-trafficking. It will not be wide off the mark to say that narco trafficking has emerged as a bigger threat than extremism and terrorism in Central Asia.
Drug profits sustain extremism and terrorism, while drug impact negatively on society in terms of corruption, addiction and violence. President Nazarbayev in his book ‘The Decade” notes with concern that his country has 45,505 drug addicts. 1927 of them are adolescents. As many as 4420 women have been registered for drug abuse. India is associated with the Kazakh initiatives like Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Centre and the Centre for Caspian Anti-terror. Narcotics Control Bureau of India is coordinating with these two Centers.
Today Afghanistan has emerged as the biggest producer of opium and Central Asia is one of the main routes through which these drugs are transported to markets in Russia and Europe.
Hence compatibility of security interests, and common objectives of stability as well as sources of threats and challenges to peace have propelled India and Kazakhstan to build a relationship based on shared commitment to open and progressive societies, secularism and democracy. Bilateral cooperation has been broadened to include strategic, security, economic and cultural inter-action. In the sphere of security especially on the issue of non-traditional threats and challenges, the two countries have set up a Joint Working Group (JWG) on counter terrorism in 2004. Its mandate is review of regional security, and sharing of experiences besides coordination. Training of para military personnel is also envisaged within the framework of JWG. The two countries have a tie-up for military technical cooperation that provides for training facilities, purchase of defence equipment and exchange of high level military delegations.
-By Prof Nirmala Joshi
Director, India-Central Asia Foundation(ICAF)
